Is it unreasonable to predict a Jon Jones loss against OSP

[binny]

Based on statistics? if you look at the other GOAT's, they made it not much further than Jon in top orgs. fedor won 20ish mostly in Pride before losing to a "lesser" opponent. silva won 15 ufc fights before losing to a "lesser" opponent. Aldo was 15-0 WEC/UFC when an opponent that many said wasn't tested enough blasted him. GSP won 11 UFC fights before arguably losing to Hendricks. Jones has won 12 straight in ufc since the Hammill DQ, 15-1 over without really losing. Yeah he could be the guy to beat the odds. its just hard to imagine some as troubled as jones will defeat the focus of those 4 other GOATs. Thoughts?

 

[binny]

Pseudo statistics I guess

 

[Brock Tober]

OSP is like +infinity, so yeah.

 

[Hideo]

You never know in this sport.

 

[sirmorbach]

I can see your point, but the only thing these statistics show is that fighters lose eventually. That's all.

Can St-Preux beat Jon Jones? Yes, he can. It's a fight. But it's unlikely and the "statistics" don't really mean much IMO.

 

[SCTwins]

Well it still is a fight at the end of the day and all it takes is one shot.

Unlikely, but not unreasonable.

 

[DatSamboKid]

Anything can happen in MMA.

 

[Venom]

On paper Jones is better everywhere and the only trait he has less of than OSP is raw power. On paper advantages translate pretty well, not perfectly obviously but a reasonable 70%, to real life action and reaction.

 

[Gamer2k4]

Given that your only rationale is "other fighters have lost," yes, it's absolutely unreasonable. It's not necessarily unreasonable for the loss to occur, but it's certainly unreasonable to actually predict it will.

 

[Russ82]

A big strong awkward guy with black man fast twitch muscle fibre in his prime. Of course he is a chance

 

[riitzni]

Unreasonable? No, people do it literally every fight where there's an underdog, especially when it's a big one. There's some dickbag named RTLv2 or something that makes a "X super underdog will beat Y dominant fighter, sign here for future shaming" post just on the off chance something crazy happens and then when he's colossally incorrect, takes the bitch road out by saying he was just kidding or how no duh the other person won.

 

[prikoke]

Based on statistics? if you look at the other GOAT's, they made it not much further than Jon in top orgs. fedor won 20ish mostly in Pride before losing to a "lesser" opponent. silva won 15 ufc fights before losing to a "lesser" opponent. Aldo was 15-0 WEC/UFC when an opponent that many said wasn't tested enough blasted him. GSP won 11 UFC fights before arguably losing to Hendricks. Jones has won 12 straight in ufc since the Hammill DQ, 15-1 over without really losing. Yeah he could be the guy to beat the odds. its just hard to imagine some as troubled as jones will defeat the focus of those 4 other GOATs. Thoughts?

If Jones ever loses, it will probably be against an underdog. Doesn't mean you should always pick the underdog.

 

[yookfarb]

lol wtf

if you think OSP has more than a 10% chance then by all means put some money on him

by the way McGregor was the favorite against Aldo and Hendricks had the most favorable odds against GSP since the BJ rematch

 

[bubbleboyjones]

Based on statistics? if you look at the other GOAT's, they made it not much further than Jon in top orgs. fedor won 20ish mostly in Pride before losing to a "lesser" opponent. silva won 15 ufc fights before losing to a "lesser" opponent. Aldo was 15-0 WEC/UFC when an opponent that many said wasn't tested enough blasted him. GSP won 11 UFC fights before arguably losing to Hendricks. Jones has won 12 straight in ufc since the Hammill DQ, 15-1 over without really losing. Yeah he could be the guy to beat the odds. its just hard to imagine some as troubled as jones will defeat the focus of those 4 other GOATs. Thoughts?

I don't see it with Jon yet. He's only 28 and has around 7/8 years under his belt fighting. Fedor didn't officially crumble until he was over 30 and had 10 years of fighting in. Once Jon hits 30 then you might to start see him to crumble a bit(assuming other factors like injuries don't come into play)

 

[Air Lats]

It's only unreasonable if your reasoning isn't sound.

Yours doesn't seem sound to me so I'm going with 'unreasonable'.

Now the guys who are saying 'OSP's got real power and has a chance against anybody' are talking sense so I'd say they are being 'reasonable' even though their conclusion is the same.

 

[binny]

Given that your only rationale is "other fighters have lost," yes, it's absolutely unreasonable. It's not necessarily unreasonable for the loss to occur, but it's certainly unreasonable to actually predict it will.

I think it was a little more refined than "others have lost" he's virtually exactly where history has chopped down everyone else that made it this far. guess that was mostly what I was trying to point out. As for the actual match up . I feel like OSP's only prayer is a flash KO or hurting him bad enough in a similar early exchange to gain the upper hand.

 

[Bitchka]

It's a three round fight. When was the last time Jones fought for 3 rounds? It's a different strategy. But I do see Jones taking him down and wrestle fucking him along with some ground and pound.. Oh, and let's not forget, at least one eye poke

 

[binny]

It's only unreasonable if your reasoning isn't sound.

Yours doesn't seem sound to me so I'm going with 'unreasonable'.

Now the guys who are saying 'OSP's got real power and has a chance against anybody' are talking sense so I'd say they are being 'reasonable' even though their conclusion is the same.

I wasn't really trying to say OSP is gonna win. more devils advocate I guess.

 

[binny]

It's a three round fight. When was the last time Jones fought for 3 rounds? It's a different strategy. But I do see Jones taking him down and wrestle fucking him along with some ground and pound.. Oh, and let's not forget, at least one eye poke

is it 3 rounds? when was the last time they had a 3 round title fight? interim or not

 

[Soul On Ice]

It's a three round fight. When was the last time Jones fought for 3 rounds? It's a different strategy. But I do see Jones taking him down and wrestle fucking him along with some ground and pound.. Oh, and let's not forget, at least one eye poke

Not a 3 round fight, mayne