Iranian elections and "trickle-down" effect of the nuclear deal

[UpaLoompa]

I was surprised not to see a thread on the topic given the strong sentiments that have been voiced here about both the nuclear deal and Iran as a whole. In short, the election can generally be seen as a referendum on normalizing relationships with other countries and approval of the nuclear deal. Major takeaways: Rouhani's party made major gains and is now a major minority block; vocal critics of the nuclear deal were defeated; while more economically driven, this represents a broad turn from the positions of Ahmadinejad. This election also changed to composition of the group that will elect the next supreme leader, also increasing the representation of moderates.

Personally this looks like strong vindication for the recent foreign policy approach employed toward Iran. Bluster and sword rattling didn't work, diplomacy has.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/world/middleeast/iran-elections.html?_r=0
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ir...essons-from-irans-2016-elections-tehranbureau

 

[Seriously-Dead]

It's just a matter of time now until they remove the religious leadership of Iran. Once Khamenei dies, and maybe even before then, we'll see an end to the Ayatollah position.

 

[Falsedawn]

Huge if true.

But seriously though, it pays when you treat a country like they have sovereign rights instead of just fucking their shit up and wondering why they hate you. I seriously think Iran could become our preeminent ally in the region, and could end up being the bridge between us and Russia someday.

 

[Makani]

Why would there be a thread on it? If this leads somewhere good, it will prove 90% of Sherdog's intellectual heavyweights wrong.

 

[Fawlty]

I was surprised not to see a thread on the topic given the strong sentiments that have been voiced here about both the nuclear deal and Iran as a whole. In short, the election can generally be seen as a referendum on normalizing relationships with other countries and approval of the nuclear deal. Major takeaways: Rouhani's party made major gains and is now a major minority block; vocal critics of the nuclear deal were defeated; while more economically driven, this represents a broad turn from the positions of Ahmadinejad. This election also changed to composition of the group that will elect the next supreme leader, also increasing the representation of moderates.

Personally this looks like strong vindication for the recent foreign policy approach employed toward Iran. Bluster and sword rattling didn't work, diplomacy has.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/03/01/world/middleeast/iran-elections.html?_r=0
http://www.theguardian.com/world/ir...essons-from-irans-2016-elections-tehranbureau

And in the meanwhile, as always happens in Iran when the good people of that country move toward their future, there are reports of a horrible massacre surfacing. Opponents of the deal, which might turn out to be a brilliant success, are going to point to the coming religious crackdown as a sign that we made a mistake. We need to stay the course on this one and give these people a chance. Iran is a great ally in waiting.

 

[Rod1]

It's just a matter of time now until they remove the religious leadership of Iran. Once Khamenei dies, and maybe even before then, we'll see an end to the Ayatollah position.

Im actually more afraid of the Ayatollah position being lost right now.

If you are to be afraid of one elemento of the Iranian regime its the republican guard, most ayatollahs tend to be relatively liberal by middle eastern standards while the republican guard tend to be quite oppresive.

 

[Islam Imamate]

Interesting stuff. The Iranian system, while deeply flawed, seems to allow enough wiggle for the public to be able to nudge it a little in the direction they would like and given the youth bulge and the effects of the sanctions that direction seems to be a more moderate and less hard line one. It'll take a while but I really do think Iran will become more and more moderate. At least relative to what is now.

 

[UpaLoompa]

At least relative to what is now.

Sadly, a lot of what it is now is still better than much of that awful region (including many of our allies).

 

[Islam Imamate]

Sadly, a lot of what it is now is still better than much of that awful region (including many of our allies).

True but in some ways its worse. Their execution record, especially when it comes to juvenile offenders, is pretty bad even by the standards of the region. Maybe that's partly because some of those states are so weak and unstable they can't quite enforce their laws the way Iran can but its still a blight on their record that should be addressed. However, I think it can be addressed better.

Iran is probably a better influence on the region that the Gulf states or Pakistan are though.

 

[UpaLoompa]

True but in some ways its worse. Their execution record, especially when it comes to juvenile offenders, is pretty bad even by the standards of the region.

Tallest midget and all that.

 

[Sauron]

Im actually more afraid of the Ayatollah position being lost right now.

If you are to be afraid of one elemento of the Iranian regime its the republican guard, most ayatollahs tend to be relatively liberal by middle eastern standards while the republican guard tend to be quite oppresive.

Power vacuum's are dangerous.

Some are even talking about Rouhani becoming supreme leader. Now, i'm against the position, but that wouldn't be the worst outcome.

 

[Rod1]

Power vacuum's are dangerous.

Some are even talking about Rouhani becoming supreme leader. Now, i'm against the position, but that wouldn't be the worst outcome.

The best would be an apolitical supreme leader or a pro-democracy one.

There are plenty of ayatollahs who think poltiical power and religion shouldnt mix, similar to how a lot of rabbis abhor the state of Israel.