People are weighing in with picks already, so I will throw my hat into the ring as well (with some reasons behind the picks)
- Champ Ayaka Hamasaki vs. Amber Brown – for atomweight title
I love Amber Brown and have been a fan since she fought here in Japan. I think she could be champ with some more experience. But, she has shown a susceptibility to getting taken down and Ayaka is a takedown machine. I expect Amber will spend a lot of the fight on her back and just get frustrated that she can't unleash her power. With time, more training, and better takedown defense, I think Amber Brown (and possibly Yu Frey) will become a major force in the division.
- Vanessa Porto vs. Jennifer Maia – for interim flyweight title
It's been a while since either fighter has appeared in the Invicta cage. Ring rust may play a factor. Maia is consistently good and can trade with great strikers. I think she sometimes gets frustrated when she can't implement her game plan (and gets stuck in the clinch, against the cage, or on her back for extended periods of time). Porto is a very smart fighter who usually comes in with a great game plan. She has high fight IQ and knows what she has to do to win. Many of her losses are just to bigger fighters back in a time when it was hard for female fighters to get fights (with fighters the same size). I don't see her losing to another 125er. And, of course, Porto has already beaten Maia once.
- Stephanie Eggink vs. Angela Hill
Eggink has the perfect style to take Hill down and triangle/armbar her in the first round. If the Eggink who fought Kankanpaa shows up, I think she will get an early finish. But, this fight is hard to call because of Eggink's long layoff and the nature of her "injury" (pregnancy). Will she be back in complete fighting shape? Will the long layoff be too much to overcome? Ultra-props to Hill for taking this fight. Even if she loses, it will be a great learning experience for her. I think Hill can win if she lights Eggink up early with power shots...but most likely, Stephanie will get her on the ground and use those lanky limbs to wrap up her prey (and get a submission win).
- Irene Aldana vs. Jessamyn Duke
I think Jessamyn knows she has a lot to prove and will do better than most people expect. But, I think Irene will come out on fire and wanting to get back into title contention. I expect that Aldana will come out firing fast...and this will overwhelm Duke
- DeAnna Bennett vs. Roxanne Modaferri
Bennett back at the weight she should be fighting at will be tough to beat. But, her striking was exposed somewhat in her last fight and I think this will give Roxy some added confidence. I expect this fight to go the distance with Bennett having enough TD defense and ground defense to stay out of trouble and outpoint Roxy in the stand up
- Jinh Yu Frey vs. Herica Tiburcio
Like Amber Brown, I am a Yu Frey fan and believe she has the potential to be champ one day. I also believe she won the Esquibel fight. But this is a significant step up in competition. Tiburcio is just so fast and so strong for her size, I fear she will overwhelm Jinh early, especially on the ground. Hamasaki had the defensive chops to weather the Tiburcio storm early and methodically grind out a victory. I am not convinced that Yu Frey has the same level of skill yet. But, should be a valuable learning experience for Yu Frey as it will show her where she needs to improve and how much she needs to improve to compete at the highest level.
- Sarah D’Alelio vs. Andrea Lee
Another tough one to call. I think D'Alelio at 125 must be like the anaconda in The film "Anaconda"; super fast in it's ability to wrap up it's prey and constrict. If Roxy could take down and control KGB (in the 2nd and 3rd rounds), I'd have to guess Sarah can as well. But, I also know that KGB has really worked to improve that area in her game. Obviously, if she can keep it standing, she should cruise to victory. But, ultimately, Lee (a fighter I have invested in) has been a slow starter at times and has lacked the killer instinct to get stoppages (no way Sinn should have gone to decision)...as though she is still pacing herself for 10-round Muay Thai bouts (even in 3-round MMA bouts). Even if she scores some early damage against D'Alelio, if she doesn't get the stoppage and lets Sarah hang around in this fight, it could go south on her in the later rounds.
- Andrea Kelly McGill vs. Aspen Ladd
Been really impressed with McGill. Now I see a reason to bet against her. Aspen has been primed for a while to be the next big thing - though apparently she'll try to do that at BW now instead of SW. Who knows how the bulking out went, but Aspen has a phenomenal skill set for her age. This could turn into a great fight between two very exciting prospects.
- Sarah Click vs. Ashley Greenway
Don't know enough about either fighter to give a detailed analysis of the fight. But I know Greenway's only ammy losses were decision losses to Torres and Aldridge; that tells me she is tough and can at least hang with top talent. So, I'm picking her.
Overall, much harder to pick them this time. But even if all of my picks turn out to be wrong, I am so looking forward to watching this card. Many of my favs are fighting; and they have some tough fights ahead of them.
Jarl
P.S. Updated my picks to cover last-minute line-up changes
*victim of timezones*
