I think Khamzat winning via decision a very realistic outcome for UFC308

[Terminalwhitebelt]

Most of the discussion around Whitaker vs Khamzat revolves around the idea that the fight can basically go two ways. Either Khamzat finishes Whitaker in the first 2 rounds or Whitaker weathers the storm and wins via decision or finish in round 4 or 5. Khamzat blew his load against Usman in round 1 and ended up winning round 3 of that fight. Im assuming Khazmat paces himself at least slightly better for this fight because it's 5 rounds, but I still expect him to still blow his load early. However, if he wins rounds 1 & 2, I could very well see him gritting his teeth and make some of the later rounds close. In this scenario, he would only need to win 1 out of the 3 last three rounds (especially if he gets a 10-8 in round 1).

I don't do any sports betting, but has anyone looked at the numbers on this? Khamzat is favored (-240ish) to win, but the over/under 2.5 rounds is -110. This means that Khamzat has a 70% chance of winning the fight, but the fight only has a 50% chance of lasting under 2.5 rounds.
This discrepancy probably either means that Kamzat actually wins the later rounds or finishes Whitaker in rounds 3, 4 and 5 (LOL). I think the much more probable outcome between the two is that Khamzat wins via decision rather than a finish later on.

But alas, I am just a whitebelt so I'm probably wrong.

 

[rjmbrd]

Khamzat to date has fought 2 ranked fighters, and he eeked by with controversial decisions both times.

That is the basis for a Whittaker victory. He is a proven entity and can fight at this level for 5 rounds. Khamzat has come up well shy of the 'boogie man' repertoire both times he had an opportunity against elite talent.

This is MMA, anything is possible, etc etc but its likely Whittaker can go longer than Khamzat can. A decision win for him seems unlikely.

 

[Kenny Powerth]

If it comes down to a decision regardless of what the actual score is...

Khazamat will get the W

 

[Terminalwhitebelt]

Khamzat to date has fought 2 ranked fighters, and he eeked by with controversial decisions both times.

That is the basis for a Whittaker victory. He is a proven entity and can fight at this level for 5 rounds. Khamzat has come up well shy of the 'boogie man' repertoire both times he had an opportunity against elite talent.

This is MMA, anything is possible, etc etc but its likely Whittaker can go longer than Khamzat can. A decision win for him seems unlikely.

I hope so, I also think its unlikely, but I still think its under considered as a way the fight could play out. I think the betting odds support this. Maybe 20% chance he wins via decision?

 

[188912345]

I agree, people have bad recollection of the Usman and Burns fights.

Similar to Dricus, he puts on a frantic pace which makes him and his opponent tired. He has shown to still be able to compete, be it with striking or wrestling, in the deep waters.

 

[octagonation]

Khamzat to date has fought 2 ranked fighters, and he eeked by with controversial decisions both times.

That is the basis for a Whittaker victory. He is a proven entity and can fight at this level for 5 rounds. Khamzat has come up well shy of the 'boogie man' repertoire both times he had an opportunity against elite talent.

This is MMA, anything is possible, etc etc but its likely Whittaker can go longer than Khamzat can. A decision win for him seems unlikely.

Controversial only in your head.. There was nothing controversial about both of them..' Stop being delusional and you simply can´t manifest a fight that happened differently into your own wish. What do you think this is make a wish fountain

 

[ninja boot]

Khamzat to date has fought 2 ranked fighters, and he eeked by with controversial decisions both times.

That is the basis for a Whittaker victory. He is a proven entity and can fight at this level for 5 rounds. Khamzat has come up well shy of the 'boogie man' repertoire both times he had an opportunity against elite talent.

This is MMA, anything is possible, etc etc but its likely Whittaker can go longer than Khamzat can. A decision win for him seems unlikely.

You also have to consider how dominant Usman was and how much of an achievement beating him is.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

Didn t read. Khamzat by decision is literally the least likely outcome. Only tied with double KO.

 

[rjmbrd]

I agree, people have bad recollection of the Usman and Burns fights.

Similar to Dricus, he puts on a frantic pace which makes him and his opponent tired. He has shown to still be able to compete, be it with striking or wrestling, in the deep waters.

Burns:
R1: Khamzat is dangerous! Wow
R2: Khamzat is sloppier and gets knocked down, Burns is confident
R3: Back and forth exchanges

You can almost measure Khamzat going from a wrecking machine to human. He's able to compete the final 2 rounds, but looks nothing like he did in the first round.

Usman:
R1: Unstoppable back-packing, boring but grappling domination
R2: Uneventful hard sparring, struggles wrestling
R3: Uneventful hard sparring, struggles wrestling, obvious momentum shift

If Khamzat was physically capable of dominating Usman in round 2, he would have. He was doing his best to win, but he couldn't win the grappling or remotely hurt Usman on the feet. It is blatantly obvious he has trouble managing his gas tank, or doesn't have a good tank to begin with. Maybe a combination of both.



re: Dricus, this is a wildly poor comparison. That guy has incredible cardio and much better overall fight IQ. He's proven himself in a way Khamzat hasn't even begun to put together.

 

[rjmbrd]

You also have to consider how dominant Usman was and how much of an achievement beating him is.

Usman was fighting:

- on one weeks notice, across the world

- at middleweight for the first time in his life

- coming off back to back losses

- coming off a "all the way to sleep" scary, scary KO loss the year prior


Khamzat had EVERYTHING stacked in his favor, and he couldn't get it done. When he burns off that frantic first few minutes, he looks human, pedestrian even.

 

[Terminalwhitebelt]

I agree, people have bad recollection of the Usman and Burns fights.

Similar to Dricus, he puts on a frantic pace which makes him and his opponent tired. He has shown to still be able to compete, be it with striking or wrestling, in the deep waters.

I think those Usman and to an extent burns fights actually show that he can win rounds later on. IMO they support my idea.

 

[188912345]

..

Against Burns, Khamzat was the one pushing the pace and pressuring in round 3. Increased his output. Burns was arguably more gassed by the end of the fight.

We kind of agree, he goes from dominating to becoming human, competitive.

Comparison with Dricus is that the narrative on him before becoming champ was that he could no way have enough cardio for 5 rounds, since he looked so gassed and sloppy. Disregarding that as tired and sloppy as they both can look, they are still able to compete with both striking and wrestling, survive and fight through adversity. It's not a cake walk for their opponent either!

What we've both described doesn't warrant the narrative that a lot of people are echoing; :"if Rob survives round 1 (or 2) he's done".

Usman has excellent cardio (yeah, i know, short notice) but he still couldn't make Khamzat pay for expending that much energy in round 1. Why? Because he also got tired from grappling with Khamzat for 5 minutes.

Wouldn't be surprised if Khamzat looks gassed vs Rob in round 2 or 3, but finds a second wind, like vs Burns.

He also had the ability to take Burns down while seriously hurt and tired in the end of round 2.

He took Usman down in rounds 2 and 3, which won him the fight.

 

[Terminalwhitebelt]

Burns:
R1: Khamzat is dangerous! Wow
R2: Khamzat is sloppier and gets knocked down, Burns is confident
R3: Back and forth exchanges

You can almost measure Khamzat going from a wrecking machine to human. He's able to compete the final 2 rounds, but looks nothing like he did in the first round.

Usman:
R1: Unstoppable back-packing, boring but grappling domination
R2: Uneventful hard sparring, struggles wrestling
R3: Uneventful hard sparring, struggles wrestling, obvious momentum shift

If Khamzat was physically capable of dominating Usman in round 2, he would have. He was doing his best to win, but he couldn't win the grappling or remotely hurt Usman on the feet. It is blatantly obvious he has trouble managing his gas tank, or doesn't have a good tank to begin with. Maybe a combination of both.



re: Dricus, this is a wildly poor comparison. That guy has incredible cardio and much better overall fight IQ. He's proven himself in a way Khamzat hasn't even begun to put together.

Khamzat won rounds 3 against both Usman and Burns...

 

[EricSpider]

I dont find Khamzat winning by decision unlikely at all. His cardio issues are overated.

 

[rjmbrd]

We kind of agree, he goes from dominating to becoming human, competitive.

I think any reasonable fan sees this point.

Comparison with Dricus is that the narrative on him before becoming champ was that he could no way have enough cardio for 5 rounds, since he looked so gassed and sloppy. Disregarding that as tired and sloppy as they both can look, they are still able to compete with both striking and wrestling, survive and fight through adversity. It's not a cake walk for their opponent either!

Dricus (nose surgery aside) has never looked like a different fighter after round 1, and is already a proven entity.

What we've both described doesn't warrant the narrative that a lot of people are echoing; :"if Rob survives round 1 (or 2) he's done".

Usman has excellent cardio (yeah, i know, short notice) but he still couldn't make Khamzat pay for expending that much energy in round 1. Why? Because he also got tired from grappling with Khamzat for 5 minutes.

Be reasonable.

- zero notice, no camp

- first EVER fight at middleweight

Wouldn't be surprised if Khamzat looks gassed vs Rob in round 2 or 3, but finds a second wind, like vs Burns.

He also had the ability to take Burns down while seriously hurt and tired in the end of round 2.

He took Usman down in rounds 2 and 3, which won him the fight.

 

[rjmbrd]

Controversial only in your head.. There was nothing controversial about both of them..' Stop being delusional and you simply can´t manifest a fight that happened differently into your own wish. What do you think this is make a wish fountain

And yet the 'boogie man' couldn't even do better than a decision, both times with the odds stacked in his favor.

The fight with Usman he literally didn't even have a camp and was coming off back to back losses.

Khamzat looks completely human and pedestrian after the first round. Lesser man have MURDERED Burns. Why couldn't Khamzat?

...

 

[Bork Neslar]

Maybe. I think Whittaker making him submit by punches is more realistic, though.

 

[Terminalwhitebelt]

Khamzat to date has fought 2 ranked fighters, and he eeked by with controversial decisions both times.

That is the basis for a Whittaker victory. He is a proven entity and can fight at this level for 5 rounds. Khamzat has come up well shy of the 'boogie man' repertoire both times he had an opportunity against elite talent.

This is MMA, anything is possible, etc etc but its likely Whittaker can go longer than Khamzat can. A decision win for him seems unlikely.

you also used the word "repertoire" incorrectly

 

[LouDee16]

I agree, people have bad recollection of the Usman and Burns fights.

Similar to Dricus, he puts on a frantic pace which makes him and his opponent tired. He has shown to still be able to compete, be it with striking or wrestling, in the deep waters.

that was against a LW and WW.. This is one of the best MW's ever... if he gets tired by the 2nd.. it is going to be a very long night for khazmat.. i cant see it going anyway other then an early win for Borz, or Whittaker weathers the early storm and beats the ever loving shit out of him until the final bell or it gets stopeed

 

[Terminalwhitebelt]

Maybe. I think Whittaker making him submit by punches is more realistic, though.

I do as well. I wasn't saying Khamzat winning via decision is the most likely scenario - I just think it's overlooked. If it gets to the later rounds I think Whittaker has a 70 or so % chance of winning. I don't understand statistics enough to do the math on this one though.