I think Gaethje is gonna take it back

Dustin outlanded Gaethje to the head 3:1 Overall 179:116
Gaethje has better boxing now, but he throws wayyy less leg kicks.
Gaethje had more room to improve his boxing, but so did Dustin, just on a higher level.

Dustin takes it again. He has better cardio and age doesn't play a role as he is only 10 months younger.
If either is significantly more injured than the other, that decides the fight.
 
HunsonAbadeer said:
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I'm not really seeing a contradiction here. I'm not saying Justin landed exclusively his jab. I'm not saying Rafi won Rd 3. Gaethje won that comfortably, even in my book.
This is actually a beautiful example for what I'm trying to describe here. Justin lands a beautiful shot straight to the face. The follow up shot to the side of the head gets blocked cleanly by Fiziev.
Obviously a busted up face has to be taken into account for impact dealt. What I'm arguing is that it gets taken into account more than it should by a huge margin. Not any more in this fight than in general.

If you look at the stats, you'd probably guess that Fiziev's face looks worse than Geathje's after that fight. Body shots fall under the table quite easily though. I don't think anyone would argue that body shots don't accumulate impact just like shots to the head do.
http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/90a83875e1d11238
This was a while ago, so in all fairness, I do not remember well enough how the second round looked, but from the stats it doesn't look all that clean for Justin. It rather looks like Fiziev was putting it on Justin with a bunch of body shots.
 
Banana Tree's Nemesis said:
I'm not really seeing a contradiction here. I'm not saying Justin landed exclusively his jab. I'm not saying Rafi won Rd 3. Gaethje won that comfortably, even in my book.
This is actually a beautiful example for what I'm trying to describe here. Justin lands a beautiful shot straight to the face. The follow up shot to the side of the head gets blocked cleanly by Fiziev.
Obviously a busted up face has to be taken into account for impact dealt. What I'm arguing is that it gets taken into account more than it should by a huge margin. Not any more in this fight than in general.

If you look at the stats, you'd probably guess that Fiziev's face looks worse than Geathje's after that fight. Body shots fall under the table quite easily though. I don't think anyone would argue that body shots don't accumulate impact just like shots to the head do.
http://ufcstats.com/fight-details/90a83875e1d11238
This was a while ago, so in all fairness, I do not remember well enough how the second round looked, but from the stats it doesn't look all that clean for Justin. It rather looks like Fiziev was putting it on Justin with a bunch of body shots.
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You know a fight is not in the numbers sir.
This isn't baseball where "hits" are clear as day, and can be counted easily.

Not only that but a bunt, a single and a homerun are not at all the same...yes they're hits but impact counts.

In fighting "significant strikes" are completely up to whoever counts them.
I know what I see, and numbers will never tell the whole story big guy.
 
I think he wins this one. As long as he doesn't revert to berserker mode.
 
HuskySamoan said:
It was a majority decision and I think about 25% of media gave the fight to Fiziev. Most people I've heard speak on the fight felt the 2nd was very close. I get that one guy got busted up visibly and the other didn't, and I'm glad with the decision but it was a very close fight where one guy looked clearly better for 7 minutes of out of a 15 minute fight.

I don't think Fiziev will ever fix his cardio, fast twitch muscle fibers and so muscle bound. When you see what guys like Islam can do over 5 rounds, he's always going to need a knockout to win vs some of these guys and it won't always be there. That said, Gaethjes cardio isn't good, particularly when he gets pressed and doesn't control the pace he has a history of wilting, sometimes his opponents wilt worse but world class guys tend to break him. Poirier could get chinned for sure but I don't think Gaethje wins a decision unless Dustin has lost a step, which is possible.
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Fiziev could really do with taking a little heat off his strikes. His kicks are so quick and tight, but it seems like he throws everything into every single one of them. Would really help manage his cardio.
 
Yeah, def think Dustin is the smarter and better fighter but I just somehow see Justin winning this. They’re not a clear sign Dustin is slowing down but I think his downfall is starting soon and this fight might kick it off.
 
People forgetting this fight is gonna take place in Utah. Justin trains there, he is used to the altitude. Dustin is gonna have a hard time and possibly gas. Braindead decision by Dustin.

I think Justin takes this one.

Edit: Dustin also looked like shit against Chandler. I think his prime might be behind him.
 
i think poirier gets it done again.

he's not going to mess around on the feet too much i think. gaethje has zero ground game and dustin will exploit that.
 
Gaethje fundamentally changed his fighting style after the Poitier fight, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if this fight looks VERY different compared to the first fight. I think Gaethje knocks him out
 
I thought Fiziev was going to run through Gaethje, was right until he gassed so soon. Gaethje is much better than I gave him credit for. Poirier has had a close fight with Hooker, then beat Conor 2x (which I'm not completely sure is Conor being washed and on drugs or he beat him in a decent place in his prime, he still beat him on the feet so props to dustin), and Chandler (who might be too old for LW). Going to be interesting how this turns out and hopefully last time for the Gaethje/Poirier/Chandler circle for the time being. Probably whoever still wants it more and is more prepared at this stage of the game. I honestly have no idea, but if I had to guess it'd be Gaethje.
 
Both Dustin and JG are pushing 35 years of age.

Justin has 28 fights, Dustin has 37. Both have entered the mid-30's age of their career and they have a lot of millage.

We saw both guys in their age appropriate prime back in 2018, Dustin is the more rounded, higher skilled fighter. This is a rematch between two veterans where we watch to see who falls off first.
 
Filthy Phil said:
Gaethje fundamentally changed his fighting style after the Poitier fight, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if this fight looks VERY different compared to the first fight. I think Gaethje knocks him out
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Justin literally threw himself to the floor swinging hooks at Charles.

He's become a bit more patient perhaps, but he still swings like a mental patient, doesn't wrestle or grapple and is overall a liability on the mat. JG had a good decision win over a kickboxer in his previous fight, but looked like what you would expect JG to be doing against a pure striker.

The 'new Justin' narrative was largely based off the Ferguson fight, where he was seen getting dropped like a potato sack in the first round. Time has shown us Ferguson aged out, literally hasn't won a fight since.
 
HuskySamoan said:
It was a majority decision and I think about 25% of media gave the fight to Fiziev. Most people I've heard speak on the fight felt the 2nd was very close. I get that one guy got busted up visibly and the other didn't, and I'm glad with the decision but it was a very close fight where one guy looked clearly better for 7 minutes of out of a 15 minute fight.

I don't think Fiziev will ever fix his cardio, fast twitch muscle fibers and so muscle bound. When you see what guys like Islam can do over 5 rounds, he's always going to need a knockout to win vs some of these guys and it won't always be there. That said, Gaethjes cardio isn't good, particularly when he gets pressed and doesn't control the pace he has a history of wilting, sometimes his opponents wilt worse but world class guys tend to break him. Poirier could get chinned for sure but I don't think Gaethje wins a decision unless Dustin has lost a step, which is possible.
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World class is the wrong term, the term would be championship level fighters break him... obviously all of the top 20 guys are world class.... the only guys to beat justin were champion level guys...
 
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