How polls are questioned, and cited at the same time(Sanders Latino vote)

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by VivaRevolution, Feb 22, 2016.

  1. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    Hello, I have been trying to stay away from making the Sanders v Clinton matchup about the media, but I found this to be eye popping.

    Here is a story questioning whether Bernie Sanders won the Latino vote in Nevada:

    The debate over who really won the Hispanic vote in Nevada, Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders, continues today. As I wrote Sunday, I think the balance of evidence points to Mrs. Clinton: Her strength in the heavily Hispanic areas of Las Vegas and among Hispanic voters in most national polls is, to my mind, much stronger evidence than an entrance/exit poll sample of 213 Hispanic respondents in 25 precincts.

    The debate is important to both campaigns. The Sanders side is eager to promote that its message is connecting beyond white voters, where it has already had impressive success. The Clinton campaign would like to be able to say that its nonwhite coalition is holding together.

    New data from the entrance-exit poll gives additional reason to doubt the conclusion that Mr. Sanders won the Hispanic vote by eight percentage points. In a defense of the poll, Gary Langer of ABC News focused on the age of the Hispanic vote. He noted that 38 percent of Hispanic voters were aged 18 to 29, according to the poll, compared with just 13 percent of non-Hispanic voters. Young voters, Hispanic or otherwise, appeared to break overwhelmingly for Mr. Sanders.


    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/u...sanders-won-hispanic-vote-in-nevada.html?_r=0

    Here is a story citing Clinton winning the black vote by a landslide in Nevada:

    Clinton carried off a big win with African American voters — a segment of the population she’s counting on to help her win in the Southern states that vote next month.

    It was a blow to Sanders, who had hoped Nevada would prove he has what it takes to carry more diverse states.


    http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...uses-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders/80630742/


    How does one get to cite the exit polls as evidence of black support, but dispute the exit polls showing a shift in Latino support in Nevada?
     
  2. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    So you're complaint is an article played down Bernie winning Hispanics?
     
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  3. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    Not just this article, but many media sources, citing the Clinton campaign questioning this number.

    No one seems to question the other numbers though, just this Latino voting bloc number apparently.

    I do see this as being rather inconsistent, in a way that favors Clinton.
     
  4. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    You don't think there have been tons of articles favoring Bernie before saying about how Clinton was in trouble in Nevada? I mean, you made a topic on that very subject citing an article.

    Is this like the scapegoat for why Bernie will lose or how the press will be stunned when he wins type thing?
     
  5. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    I most certainly do. The picture of Bernie being circulated of him being arrested, was most definitely a pro-bernie story, with intent to influence the vote.

    That isn't really my point here. I could go find other examples, but let's just stick to the USAtoday and NYT article I posted.

    Doesn't it dictate that one or both of these establishments should lose credibility, if one is reporting from a poll, the other is discrediting?

    I mean, I would be OK, with someone citing the black voter exit poll numbers with the same disclaimer I see in every story that cites the Latino vote going for Bernie of the numbers apparently being under question.

    I guess my problem is with time and again, seeing the Bernie number questioned, while Clinton's number is reported as fact, without being questioned, when both numbers came from the same source.

    This is like people citing the number of Bernie's programs costing 18 Trillion dollars, when the same report they are citing that number came from, says his programs would save trillions of dollars.

    It is the double standard, I believe that I see here, I am attempting to draw attention to.
     
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  6. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Again, your issue with this article doesn't even make sense. So you're mad cause they said he won hispanics cause of young hispanics within the group?

    Also, you understand Clinton won with blacks by 50 points compared to Bernie's 8 or so with Hispanics? Yes, HRG, that is going to push for a much different response in writing. It's not a double standard when you realize the two things you are talking about aren't close to equal.
     
    Last edited: Feb 22, 2016
  7. Byron Carter

    Byron Carter Purveyor of Wisdom Banned

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    Every thread I've seen from you is total shit.

    Maybe 700 posts in 20 days is too much.

    What the fuck is this even about.
     
  8. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    See, I have no issue with your statement. You gave bernie credit, without questioning his win with Latinos, while giving clinton equal treatment.

    I don't know how much more clear I can be in my concern, that multiple sources cite bernie's Latino win, with question, and yet that same question isn't asked of Clinton's win with the black vote, when both pieces of info come from the same source.

    I have only provided one source, questioning bernie's win here. Do you need to see more, or have you seen these other reports as well?
     
  9. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    To put this in terms I think you will understand, I am Fedor, and you are Kimbo.

    You sure you want come in here talking bad?

    If so, please respond to the thread, if you don't understand the thread, then hence my Kimbo analogy.
     
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  10. Byron Carter

    Byron Carter Purveyor of Wisdom Banned

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    You misused the word "hence". Furthermore, the entire structure of this sentence is in disarray and barely comprehensible.

    "If so, please respond to the thread, if you don't understand the thread, then hence my Kimbo analogy."




    I guess your analogy is correct in one way. Kimbo is able to speak fucking English.
     
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  11. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    So you don't understand the thread?

    You refuse to comment on it?

    You want to go start your own thread in Mayberry about spelling and sentence structure?

    Pick one...........
     
  12. Byron Carter

    Byron Carter Purveyor of Wisdom Banned

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    I understand the words you have typed. The problem is that I don't know what answer you are looking for.

    You have cited two different news articles, and then asked why they can interpret data differently. The answer is that people have independent thought.

    Have a good night.
     
  13. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    Well, thank you for contributing to the thread.

    I disagree with your statement, as it is not a interpretation that is in question.

    The credibility of the source is being questioned, but only in the case of the Latino vote, not the black vote.
     
  14. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    It referenced that ABC mentioned Bernie probably won Hispanics cause of younger Hispanics. I don't see why this is a problem. Also when the margin is 8 instead of 50, it will be covered a different way as I mentioned before. "Questioning Bernie's win". HRG, he lost Nevada and it wasn't a good showing for him either. I know you want to grab on to some specific data from it and pretend it somehow was a victory but it wasn't. It was actually a hard hard loss showing he is unable to win this race with the way he has done his outreach.

    Remember the example I did with Nevada to show you why he would lose and you ignored it as unimportant? I used a 60-40 black split in my example. We say 72-36 or something close to that. It wasn't even close to what people thought it was and he somehow managed to underperform in a demographic is was working overtime to reach out to that he already was doing bad with.

    This is just like the "trust" data from Iowa with you. You are mad the news isn't just talking about one fact that puts Bernie in a good light. He lost. He isn't going to be written about as a winner in all of this.
     
  15. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    Ummmmm, ok man. Seems we are going to agree to disagree here.

    Edit: oh wait, I see you did actually try and address my point, by pointing out the margin of difference. I don't see how margin of difference means their shouldn't be a disclaimer still on either both pieces of info, or niether.
     
  16. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Is there a disclaimer on every article your reading about this? The one you posted isn't even a big deal. It says the dispute is over whether younger Hispanics put Bernie over the top and whether that will be representative in future states. Again, I don't see the problem and think you're grasping at nothing. The media has been more than fair to Bernie
     
  17. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    Have they?

    You know those pictures of words, that they poll people for, and the amount of mentions dictates the size of the words?

    What do you think would the 3 largest words for Sanders would be?

    You think it would probably be old, socialist, and jew?

    Out of curiosity, what do you think the 4th and 5th words would be?

    Do you think any of the top 5 words would have positive associations?

    Edit: as to your question, I would say there has been a disclaimer on the win for Bernie with latinos, in about 14 of 15 of the articles I have seen, of about 15 articles i have read that have mentioned this. I have seen 0 articles with the disclaimer for Clinton and the black vote.
     
  18. Lead

    Lead /Led/ Staff Member Senior Moderator

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    Oh no. A anti-Bernie word picture! You got me there. I'm glad we at least have no switched from Bernie's eligibility to whether the media was fair. It is your subtle nod to many of us here that you now see what we were trying to explain to you. The trajectory is down.
     
  19. VivaRevolution

    VivaRevolution Whoopin' Belt Platinum Member

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    Tell me again how you like Bernie, and are impartial.

    My question is if you are so defensive in defense of Hillary, or of the media.
     
  20. HunterSdVa29

    HunterSdVa29 Respect, tho Platinum Member

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    serious question: does anybody know any Bernie supporters, IRL, that actually are gainfully employed and earn their own keep? so not a student, or stay at home mom or whatever noncontributers

    Cuz quick check, and ya i don't have a single friend like that
     

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