Elections Hillary v. Trump Presidential Debate Three

[Jack V Savage]

The "cooks1 inverted predictor" has been one of the most reliable predictors of this election. Just take cooks1 stated prediction, and take the opposite result.

If cooks1 is predicting 300 electoral votes for Hillary, it will be likely that Trump wins with about 290 electoral votes.

This inverted or "bizzaro" predictor has been one of the more accurate this election season.

When it turns out that Clinton wins by a margin similar to what the polls show, will you rethink things? Just wondering if it is possible, even in theory, for facts to affect your understanding.

I'm not sure I trust the organizations doing the polling. All you have to do is look at the brexit

Was it even the same organizations? And Brexit polling wasn't far off.

 

[Fawlty]

I'm not sure I trust the organizations doing the polling. All you have to do is look at the brexit

I realize you're a pretty cynical dude but you should know that you've just fallen for confirmation bias.

 

[Farmer Br0wn]

I'm not sure I trust the organizations doing the polling. All you have to do is look at the brexit

Yep, much of the British media was reporting that Brexit would lose by 11% up until the night of the election. The next morning, it turned out Brexit won by 2%. Polls are becoming propaganda tools for those who wish to maintain political power.

 

[Farmer Br0wn]

I realize you're a pretty cynical dude but you should know that you've just fallen for confirmation bias.

Except what he described actually happened earlier this year.

 

[Deleted member 196663]

Probably has something to do with only one of the candidates making it an issue.

Damn, you are correct. I'm looking at the transcript, and he asks Trump specifically because of all the rigging claims Trump made.

@silus_2000 sorry for what I said before, I waswrong. But Wallace did not ask each candidate the same questions throughout. Some were general questions, some were tailored to the candidate based on recent news. So Clinton got wikileaks and openborder questions, Trump got sexual assault and rigging questions.

He was asked it because he has made statements to that effect, and is contradicting himself regularly in public. Those sorts of questions are completely normal.

She's never said she would question the results if she lost. That's why she wasn't asked it.

The idea is to avoid the appearance of bias, and a question like that where you have to talk about losing and acknowledging defeat in the middle of competition is just fucked up. So no, that's not a good enough excuse to not take the 5 seconds to let her answer the same question.

P.S. The question of accepting the results has been used in debates without any prompting. It's often a question asked to the less popular candidates during a primary debate, which you can understand is a fucked up thing to do.

 

[Fawlty]

Except what he described actually happened earlier this year.

But it's not necessarily representative of the whole. And it's a doubly biased POV because he is uncertain on pro pollsters, and translating that uncertainty into positive evidence against polling. It's unsound thinking.

 

[cooks1]

The "cooks1 inverted predictor" has been one of the most reliable predictors of this election. Just take cooks1 stated prediction, and take the opposite result.

If cooks1 is predicting 300 electoral votes for Hillary, it will be likely that Trump wins with about 290 electoral votes.

This inverted or "bizzaro" predictor has been one of the more accurate this election season.

I am not predicting a 300 electoral vote landslide. I admit that is improbable. I am predicting that Hillary will win by more than 6.4 points in the popular vote and I have a sig bet on that. What I said was that the conditions are right for a landslide that could be up to 300 electoral votes. I then mentioned specifically what those conditions were (lots of advertising, surrogates, and ground game for Hillary, very little for Trump) Then I specifically stated some actual facts that Trump has pissed off some popular political figures in Texas. And that Texas is much closer this year. Many polls have it within the margin of error.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/18/polit...ry-clinton-texas-wisconsin-presidential-poll/

Hillary is already likely to win FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, CO, NM, NV- This alone would giver her a 109 electoral vote victory.

Many Polls now have Clinton ahead or within the MOE in AZ and Utah as well- If they drop---you are at 143 electoral votes

GA, OH, Iowa- All pretty much within the margin of error or very close..........223 electoral votes.

..................And along comes Texas. none of this can happen without Texas. Some polls have HRC within the margin of error. Some have her just outside. Between demographic shifts and pissed off Texas institutions, it just might be enough.

299 electoral votes.

From there, HRC will need some luck. She will either need Indiana or Missouri to fall as well. Both are outside the MOE if favor up Trump right now, but neither are in double digits. If she gets either one, she is now over 300. If she gets both, she holds Trump to under 100 electoral votes, at 439-98.

I give you the Trump doomsday scenario:


http://www.270towin.com/maps/gPOx2

 

[cooks1]

Yep, much of the British media was reporting that Brexit would lose by 11% up until the night of the election. The next morning, it turned out Brexit won by 2%. Polls are becoming propaganda tools for those who wish to maintain political power.

I agree there is a lot of evidence that polls can be flawed. But if you look historically in the US, democrats typically outperform the polls. Most polls had Romey/Obama dead even or within a point, but Obama ended up winning by 3.9 points. Nearly 5 million votes.

 

[Lord Commander Palis]

Maybe I dont want emotionally unstable man lead the super power of the world because the ignorant majority in America want to fuck up their own country. I dont care if you fuck up your own country. but I also dont want WW3 because you select someone with child temperament as a president. It says a lot about people like you to think yeah.....putting this clown in office is a good idea. Because a billionaire who brags about not paying taxes, brags about using cheap labour is the man to look after the poor. You couldnt make this up

Uhh you do realize you have a higher chance at WW3 with Hitlary than Trump right? Think before you speak child.

And nobody currently is really looking after the poor. The left have been a fake beacon of hope for poor minorities for decades, it's a fucking joke. Anyone with half a brain can see these... THANKS FOR THE VOTE THOUGH POOR MINORITIES, SEE YA IN 4!

 

[Blackened]

I realize you're a pretty cynical dude but you should know that you've just fallen for confirmation bias.

I'm not ruling that out as a possibility either, but like I say, we will see.

 

[m52nickerson]

Uhh you do realize you have a higher chance at WW3 with Hitlary than Trump right? Think before you speak child.

So the man that can't control himself through a 90 minute debate is less likely to start WW3 then someone that has been Secretary of State and in politics for many years?

Trump can't help himself and made fun of a reporter with a disability and went on a 2 AM twitter rant about a former Miss Universe...and he is going to be the voice of calm and reason?

What the f....

 

[Gervinho]

Uhh you do realize you have a higher chance at WW3 with Hitlary than Trump right? Think before you speak child.

And nobody currently is really looking after the poor. The left have been a fake beacon of hope for poor minorities for decades, it's a fucking joke. Anyone with half a brain can see these... THANKS FOR THE VOTE THOUGH POOR MINORITIES, SEE YA IN 4!

Shows how clueless you are....Hillary is like Obama, she just speaks tough. She isnt mentally unstable with the temper of a child. She isnt the one who suggested everyone should get nukes and they should go in countries to take their oil.

 

[Monaco Slim]

Trump

 

[Lord Commander Palis]

So the man that can't control himself through a 90 minute debate is less likely to start WW3 then someone that has been Secretary of State and in politics for many years?

Trump can't help himself and made fun of a reporter with a disability and went on a 2 AM twitter rant about a former Miss Universe...and he is going to be the voice of calm and reason?

What the f....

Yawn. I could post a list of Hillary's stupid ass moments of "calm and reason", her criminal background, mishaps that's cost American lives but we all already know all of them. Difference between you and I is we both know Hillary is a much more vile human being, however you just choose to ignore her vileness while pointing at Trump.

I am not going to deny Trump is a bullshitter, crude and a asshole, but I won't deny that Hillary is just infinitely worse. Lol @ career politician and secretary of state... I'm laughing at that like she did over getting that little girl rapist off of those charges when she knew he was guilty. Ignorance is bliss I guess, right?

 

[Lord Commander Palis]

Shows how clueless you are....Hillary is like Obama, she just speaks tough. She isnt mentally unstable with the temper of a child. She isnt the one who suggested everyone should get nukes and they should go in countries to take their oil.

Oh no, some 3rd worlder who is now leeching off of an 1st world country is calling me clueless? LOL. Hillary is like Obama, you're right. Inept... Trump is right, our country has been getting ripped off majorly for years now, our foreign policy and relations fucking suck and we let ISIS/ISIL claim oil fields when we should have done it.

You're right though, Hillary isn't mentally unstable, she's very smart, cool and calm.

In one note from the documents, the FBI writes that Clinton said she did not know what the marking (C) — used to denote classified information deemed "confidential" — meant. When presented with an email chain using the (C) mark, Clinton "speculated it was referencing paragraphs marked in alphabetical order," according to the report.

The FBI said it questioned Clinton about other levels of classification, such as "top secret" and "secret." Clinton responded that she "took all classified information seriously."

SUPER BONUS CLINTON VIDEO FOOTAGE!!! WHAT WILL THOSE ZANY CLINTONS DO OR SAY NEXT!?!?!?

 

[Sir Galahad]

Sig bet you that won't happen.

I'm considering it.

 

[m52nickerson]

Yawn. I could post a list of Hillary's stupid ass moments of "calm and reason", her criminal background, mishaps that's cost American lives but we all already know all of them. Difference between you and I is we both know Hillary is a much more vile human being, however you just choose to ignore her vileness while pointing at Trump.

I am not going to deny Trump is a bullshitter, crude and a asshole, but I won't deny that Hillary is just infinitely worse. Lol @ career politician and secretary of state... I'm laughing at that like she did over getting that little girl rapist off of those charges when she knew he was guilty. Ignorance is bliss I guess, right?

Please post a list of Hillary's stupid ass moments of calm and reason. I want to see her unhinged moments that match Trumps.

I do like you you pivoted to her alleged criminal activities and her history as a lawyer even though they have no barring on if she is more likely to get us into a war. Trump could learn a thing or two from you.

 

[OverCoronavirus Pressure]

GOP again condemning their Chosen One
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/20...ting-election-results-would-be-beyond-n670026

 

[Lord Commander Palis]

Please post a list of Hillary's stupid ass moments of calm and reason. I want to see her unhinged moments that match Trumps.

I do like you you pivoted to her alleged criminal activities and her history as a lawyer even though they have no barring on if she is more likely to get us into a war. Trump could learn a thing or two from you.

Ok we'll start off with her lies. I assume you are of right mind and agree with me that an pathological liar is probably not someone you want around you, let alone being your boss, right?



Her history as a lawyer does indeed have barring on her as an President. Her laughing over the little girl rapist and how that polygraph failed the system is a telling sign of how much she really cares about people. I would like to conclude that having someone as President with no regard for life when dealing with foreign dignitaries is a pretty tough pill to swallow, agree?

GOP again condemning their Chosen One
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/20...ting-election-results-would-be-beyond-n670026

The GOP sucks and has sucked for years. At least the orange skinned dude shook shit up. Maybe in 4 years we'll have someone competent to boot Hillary out of office.

 

[Gervinho]

[QUOTE="Palis, post: 122916693, member: 400641"]Oh no, some 3rd worlder who is now leeching off of an 1st world country is calling me clueless? LOL. Hillary is like Obama, you're right. Inept... Trump is right, our country has been getting ripped off majorly for years now, our foreign policy and relations fucking suck and we let ISIS/ISIL claim oil fields when we should have done it.

You're right though, Hillary isn't mentally unstable, she's very smart, cool and calm.

SUPER BONUS CLINTON VIDEO FOOTAGE!!! WHAT WILL THOSE ZANY CLINTONS DO OR SAY NEXT!?!?!?

[/QUOTE]
Typical Trump supporter....I showed you several instances to show how he is unstable emotionally and instead of addressing them.....you start to insult me. Even last night his team told her she will try to show that you are disrespectful to women, dont fall for it. He managed to keep his calm for 1 hour before he uttered the words such a nasty woman cause he lost his temper once again. And lool at America being ripped off....you are the ones who are ripping everyone off. But its typical right wingers to act like victims every chance they get