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Hillary Clinton at -200... Donald Trump at +175 for general election match up betting odds.

Trump's odds didn't just improve because he suddenly got more popular relative to Hillary.

His odds went up because he eliminated all the competition on the Republican side.
 
Ignoring the bookies, who is most likely to be president ?
 
I think the Donald is going to be president. Sure, people can make their cases as to why each should not be president. With that being said, I don't think America wants Hillary. For some it is the lesser of two evils.
 
The Witcher said:
Ignoring the bookies, who is most likely to be president ?
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Don't ignore the bookies. The betting odds represent probably the best possible guess about the true odds. Maybe someone can devise a model that is better, but that's a lot of work and the gap will be very small.
 
This race is going to be much tighter than what conventional wisdom predicts.
 
Liquid Smoke said:
This race is going to be much tighter than what conventional wisdom predicts.
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It'll definitely tighten up some. Almost half the voting population is generally inclined to vote for Republicans and while a lot of those people are put off by Trump's vacuous campaign, many will come back into the fold by election time. And candidates generally get a bump after the convention, and there could be other things that cause temporary bumps (plus outlier polls). But Trump is a particularly weak candidate, and demographic trends have been going Democrats' way. There's a reason Clinton is a relatively big favorite, and I'd still predict the biggest popular-vote margin in a long time.
 
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Jack V Savage said:
Don't ignore the bookies. The betting odds represent probably the best possible guess about the true odds. Maybe someone can devise a model that is better, but that's a lot of work and the gap will be very small.
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The way I see it, election odds are theoretically even better predictors than sports odds, given a large enough number of bets by voters. Popular bias is corrected by the bettors directly influencing the outcome of the contest.
 
I think the polls will be all over the place between now and November.
 
Sounds about right, people are going to keep convincing themselves Trump has no shot against Hillary. It's time to get off your smug throne. The threat is real
 
reflector said:
I think the polls will be all over the place between now and November.
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They will go up and down, just wait for the debates.
What a shit show, we have a thin skinned buffoon, snake oil salesman, born with a silver spoon in his mouth, vs the dirtiest player in the game, that is a vacuaous pandering machine, whose closet is stuffed with fucking skeletons.
America is the only loser in this election.
 
It'll be a blood bath , Hillary has the money, the ground game and the support of her party , and is following a very popular president

Trump has none of theses things
 
FXDF said:
I think the Donald is going to be president. Sure, people can make their cases as to why each should not be president. With that being said, I don't think America wants Hillary. For some it is the lesser of two evils.
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If Clinton is the actual nominee, she will alienate less people than Trump. Trump still has a battle in the GOP and isnt polling well with women in a general.

At 50% of the vote, he's not going to do well.
 
AnGrYcRoW said:
It'll be a blood bath , Hillary has the money, the ground game and the support of her party , and is following a very popular president

Trump has none of theses things
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Obama is hardly popular and Clinton is reviled. Obama could only win against a Romney and Clinton would lose to any real republican candidate.

I think she would have lost to Jeb but he campaigned worse than his father's '92 campaign.

I can not think of two candidates with worse general polling being the actual Presidential candidates in the last 120 years.
 
This race will absolutely be close. Hillary is nowhere near a strong a candidate as Obama, so lets not use 2008 as a baseline. Lets use 2012 instead, which was still a pretty big win for Obama.

Trump can win florida, he showed that in the primary, the old people and the crazies love him. He crushed the two florida guys in Jeb and Rubio. If trump picks Kasich, he can absolutely win Ohio. If he continues his free trade talk, he can win Michigan too. Michigan picked sanders over hillary in large part due to the trade issue. If he can manage to flip that state, as well as FL and OH (easily winnable), then both candidates have 269 electoral votes.

That being said, I wouldn't say he's the favorite but he isn't some crazy underdog either. I imagine final odds are trump at +150 or so.
 
yeah he has a shot, lets see how far to the middle he will go now. He has the potential to put a few states at play that the GOP lost against Obama.

It will also be interesting to see how much of the black vote he can get. I know the media tries their best to convince people he is racists. But I think if he can get 25% of the Black vote he has a shot. Lets see how many Black people will vote for him. I think people will be surprised how much of the black and Latino vote he will get.
 
snakedafunky said:
yeah he has a shot, lets see how far to the middle he will go now. He has the potential to put a few states at play that the GOP lost against Obama.

It will also be interesting to see how much of the black vote he can get. I know the media tries their best to convince people he is racists. But I think if he can get 25% of the Black vote he has a shot. Lets see how many Black people will vote for him. I think people will be surprised how much of the black and Latino vote he will get.
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Women as well. Not all women in the Democratic side trust Clinton
 
If there's a halfway respectable Libertarian 3rd Party option who can make a decent showing, Trump is going to get steamrolled.

I ain't voting for that clown.
 
ucunc156 said:
This race will absolutely be close. Hillary is nowhere near a strong a candidate as Obama, so lets not use 2008 as a baseline. Lets use 2012 instead, which was still a pretty big win for Obama.
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I think it most likely (better than 50/50) be a bigger margin than 2008. I think something like 57-43 in the popular vote is most likely.
 
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