guys.......stock market........

[boingyman]

Actually we have been looong over due for a major correction historically speaking. Typical bill market lasts 8 or 9 years tops. Last year was like a 40% year. PE ratios are dangerously high. The internet has brought an army of amateur investors to the market thinking they can't lose. It's actually the perfect storm for a major correction there just hasn't been a good catalyst and the corona virus was it. Everybody knew if nothing else the election would provide the volatility and we're very close so might as well sell now and wait to see of trump wins.

A major correction could occur, but nothing near what happened during the great recession. The market would have to drop more than 50% in order to mach what happened in 08'. The great recession was a anomaly and a lot had to due with the subprime mortgage crisis.

Aren't derivatives, which caused the whole mess in 2007, still unregulated and exponentially higher than 2007?

It definitely played a role and still need better regulation due to its vulnerabilities, however I still don't think anything close to what happened during the great recession is going to occur.

Of course this is my opinion. I don't own a crystal ball.

 

[kahiljabroni]

A major correction could occur, but nothing near what happened during the great recession. The market would have to drop more than 50% in order to mach what happened in 08'. The great recession was a anomaly and a lot had to due with the subprime mortgage crisis.



It definitely played a role and still need better regulation due to its vulnerabilities, however I still don't think anything close to what happened during the great recession is going to occur.

Of course this is my opinion. I don't own a crystal ball.

Massive corrections are way more common than you think. Before the housing bubble there was the dot com bubble that wiped out 50+ % in 2000. Pretty much every decade has had one in fact.

 

[Sketch]

Good. Hopefully it tanks. I’m holding for the next 20 plus years since I’m only 29 now anyway. Let it free fall, I just see it as a sale and I can buy more. I don’t care what the market looks like today, tomorrow or even 5 years from now.

 

[puppybird]

Good. Hopefully it tanks. I’m holding for the next 20 plus years since I’m only 29 now anyway. Let it free fall, I just see it as a sale and I can buy more. I don’t care what the market looks like today, tomorrow or even 5 years from now.

This is the correct opinion (IMO)

 

[Beechwood]

My portfolio should be up in value due to the fear buying of bonds. While I do better on paper with bond buying due to Corona virus fears, as I read yesterday hopefully bonds don't go negative. If that happens many talking heads will be saying how terrible the economy is, the ship is sinking, etc. It is likely not true, by the market bears will be out in force spreading further fear.

 

[boingyman]

Massive corrections are way more common than you think. Before the housing bubble there was the dot com bubble that wiped out 50+ % in 2000. Pretty much every decade has had one in fact.

Dotcom bubble was also a anomaly. The market, specifically the NASDAQ grew rapidly in a short period of time, a lot based on speculation and greed, hence why it dropped over 75%. Personally I think it could be similar to 2018 or even up to a 10-15% total drop at worse. At best single digit % rise by the end of the year. At the end though all this shouldn't matter as I have over 2 decades more until I retire, which the majority of my investments are held in my retirement accounts. Again just my personal prediction, which I could be totally off. I just know I have too much assets in cash that I want to move into the market, but I'm always hesitant on the timing, especially after missing a nice 2019.

 

[kahiljabroni]

Dotcom bubble was also a anomaly. The market, specifically the NASDAQ grew rapidly in a short period of time, a lot based on speculation and greed, hence why it dropped over 75%. Personally I think it could be similar to 2018 or even up to a 10-15% total drop at worse. At best single digit % rise by the end of the year. At the end though all this shouldn't matter as I have over 2 decades more until I retire, which the majority of my investments are held in my retirement accounts. Again just my personal prediction, which I could be totally off. I just know I have too much assets in cash that I want to move into the market, but I'm always hesitant on the timing, especially after missing a nice 2019.

I Just finished the book the intelligent investor....it goes into detail on the market from its inception and all the crashes and there's about 1 per decade with rare exception. Major crashes.

 

[JAEGERX]

i think we are now officially on the end of the cycle, its crashing everywhere, im guessing after the virus gets cleared (or we all die) and Trump wins again it will start to recover, thats what im thinking, im also thinking in Kate Upton bouncing her perfect tits

 

[aerius]

There is nothing indicating a huge collapse like what happened in 2008. If anything at most there might be a correction like 2018 or a stagnant market. No one has a crystal ball so who knows.

Depends on where you look. There's been some interesting things happening in the credit & commodities markets. Also, once all those pesky derivatives are brought back onto the books, the overall leverage in the financial system is at all time high. Trying to net out those derivatives when the trades go the wrong way will almost certainly result in a cascade failure in the system. Add in various geopolitical factors and I really don't like the odds.

Which isn't to say the market can't go up from here, it most likely will, the market can remain irrational for quite some time and if folks want to jump in and chase some gains that's perfectly fine. I'm sitting out since many of the indicators I use are looking unhealthy and it's not worth it for me to take the risk in chasing further gains.

 

[boingyman]

I Just finished the book the intelligent investor....it goes into detail on the market from its inception and all the crashes and there's about 1 per decade with rare exception. Major crashes.

I've read the intelligent investor a few years ago among other books such as four pillars, bogleheads guide, wealth of common sense, etc. I thought intelligent investor is a good read especially coming from a defensive investor. Although he does go on about importance of timing, forecasting which is basically speculating and many believe is futile. Personally my foundation I believe in is compounding interest, time in market, dollar cost averaging, diversification, asset allocation and overall trusting the market. I stick with mostly broad low fee index funds/ETFs. I look at it as a turtle race and at the end I have relatively low expectations on my rate of return. I'm still a defensive investor till this day, although sounds like you are aiming to be a enterprising investor. I just don't have the time and balls to do that.

By the time I retire I don't expect more than 7-8% ROR, but will be ready for 4-5%. Anything higher then 8% is just icing on the cake. Also ideally my wife and I could live off our pensions, social security and income earned through rental properties and maybe taking out a little interest from our retirement, which is possible without a mortgage and not living a lavish lifestyle.

 

[boingyman]

Depends on where you look. There's been some interesting things happening in the credit & commodities markets. Also, once all those pesky derivatives are brought back onto the books, the overall leverage in the financial system is at all time high. Trying to net out those derivatives when the trades go the wrong way will almost certainly result in a cascade failure in the system. Add in various geopolitical factors and I really don't like the odds.

Which isn't to say the market can't go up from here, it most likely will, the market can remain irrational for quite some time and if folks want to jump in and chase some gains that's perfectly fine. I'm sitting out since many of the indicators I use are looking unhealthy and it's not worth it for me to take the risk in chasing further gains.

I somewhat understand the indicators of concern for a market crash, but it's hard for me to go off speculation. How many experts said the market will crash if Trump became president? How many experts thought the market would crash further in 2019? That's a big reason why time in market and dollar cost averaging versus timing the market has been a key component to many successful investors. Not saying you can't get lucky or capitalize from timing, but it's hard to predict. I know a lot of people try. I'm in the TSP Seasonal Strategies group and people are doing it all the time.

 

[kahiljabroni]

I've read the intelligent investor a few years ago among other books such as four pillars, bogleheads guide, wealth of common sense, etc. I thought intelligent investor is a good read especially coming from a defensive investor. Although he does go on about importance of timing, forecasting which is basically speculating and many believe is futile. Personally my foundation I believe in is compounding interest, time in market, dollar cost averaging, diversification, asset allocation and overall trusting the market. I stick with mostly broad low fee index funds/ETFs. I look at it as a turtle race and at the end I have relatively low expectations on my rate of return. I'm still a defensive investor till this day, although sounds like you are aiming to be a enterprising investor. I just don't have the time and balls to do that.

By the time I retire I don't expect more than 7-8% ROR, but will be ready for 4-5%. Anything higher then 8% is just icing on the cake. Also ideally my wife and I could live off our pensions, social security and income earned through rental properties and maybe taking out a little interest from our retirement, which is possible without a mortgage and not living a lavish lifestyle.

Ok then you are familiar with the major corrections/crashes through out the decades. I found the intelligent investor to be very anti-speculation and a very conservative approach to value investing.

Good idea keeping expectations low. Wife and i are maxing our retirement options and we just recently put money in online brokerage account. I just went to all cash in that brokerage account. I could definitely be wrong but i still think a major correction is coming between the Corona throwing off the supply chain/ projections/earnings and the election. I don't think he'll be able to achieve his goals bit Bernie's plans would cripple the market and he could very possibly win.

 

[boingyman]

Ok then you are familiar with the major corrections/crashes through out the decades. I found the intelligent investor to be very anti-speculation and a very conservative approach to value investing.

Good idea keeping expectations low. Wife and i are maxing our retirement options and we just recently put money in online brokerage account. I just went to all cash in that brokerage account. I could definitely be wrong but i still think a major correction is coming between the Corona throwing off the supply chain/ projections/earnings and the election. I don't think he'll be able to achieve his goals bit Bernie's plans would cripple the market and he could very possibly win.

I'm probably just nitpicking on certain areas that I've read and highlighted in that book. It's been a while since I read it. Sounds like you are in a similar boat as us. We also max everything and combined we are probably >90% stock in our retirement accounts. We are in our mid to late 30s. We have cash in high yield savings and no penalty CDs that I want to move beyond what we need for emergency funds. It was mostly from equity from selling out previous home. We had even more cash in a brokerage from selling AAPL a while back (which I of course regret), but she went and bought DXCM before it shot up, so I can't really complain there. Knowing me I never pull the trigger so in a way I hope you are right that the market tanks since I have cash to invest and maybe even go 100% stock in our retirement accounts.

 

[Holic]

If I had money I'd buy in like a mofo right now.

Actually wait a minute I do have some money

Fuck this BRB

 

[aerius]

I somewhat understand the indicators of concern for a market crash, but it's hard for me to go off speculation. How many experts said the market will crash if Trump became president? How many experts thought the market would crash further in 2019? That's a big reason why time in market and dollar cost averaging versus timing the market has been a key component to many successful investors. Not saying you can't get lucky or capitalize from timing, but it's hard to predict. I know a lot of people try. I'm in the TSP Seasonal Strategies group and people are doing it all the time.

Most "experts" are anything but, especially the clowns that show up on CNBC and other mainstream news media. To this day I still laugh at Jim Cramer's 10 stocks you must own, most of which went bankrupt within a couple years of his call. That was like 20 years ago and I still chuckle when I think about it.

I'm mostly a trader so I don't really care about time in market or dollar cost averaging, as long as the market moves I'm making money. Investing is not something I'd personally do at this point since I believe there's way too much wonky shit going on right now. Trade the shit out of it? Absolutely, and I will when more of my indicators start tripping, but investing ain't something I'm going to do until everything crashes & burns.

 

[TheNinja]

Good. Hopefully it tanks. I’m holding for the next 20 plus years since I’m only 29 now anyway. Let it free fall, I just see it as a sale and I can buy more. I don’t care what the market looks like today, tomorrow or even 5 years from now.

This is the correct opinion (IMO)

I understand timing the market is rough, but I also can't 100% get on board with a "set it and forget it" mentality. Why would I want to lose 40% of the value of my assets? Wouldn't you want to see the indicators and get out before the free fall? Then you can buy even MORE on the rebound.

I do get what you are saying though. I'm only 42 so I'm looking long term in general......some 5-10 year returns for kids' college...but mostly long term. I just hate looking and seeing my portfolio down 30% due to some massive "correction" but I also don't like just throwing it in a fund and not watching it at all.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Actually we have been looong over due for a major correction historically speaking. Typical bill market lasts 8 or 9 years tops. Last year was like a 40% year. PE ratios are dangerously high. The internet has brought an army of amateur investors to the market thinking they can't lose. It's actually the perfect storm for a major correction there just hasn't been a good catalyst and the corona virus was it. Everybody knew if nothing else the election would provide the volatility and we're very close so might as well sell now and wait to see of trump wins.

Corona Virus was it? Markets are basically at the same level as they were two months ago. There's been about 11 years of gains, and the coronavirus to date has wiped out about 2 months of those gains.

 

[AznTrojan]

tdoc popping after market... i bought some a few weeks ago.. gonna buy some more

 

[TheNinja]

tdoc popping after market... i bought some a few weeks ago.. gonna buy some more

Interesting stock for sure.....hmmmm.

 

[kahiljabroni]

Corona Virus was it? Markets are basically at the same level as they were two months ago. There's been about 11 years of gains, and the coronavirus to date has wiped out about 2 months of those gains.

Yeh it was the catalyst to start a sell off. A sell off that was bound to happen anyway. What's your beef with that