General MMA discussion and future lines - July 2016

Status
Not open for further replies.
Condit generally has a terrific offensive guard so it will be really interesting to see how that plays out vs Maia. And when I say offensive guard I don't just mean threatening with subs. He's excellent at limiting damage to himself while unleashing brutal elbows off his back. But Maia's top game is just a different animal. The second guys open their guard even an inch to do anything offensively, Maia takes that inch of real estate. Your choice against him is be content to close your guard and play defense, losing the round while he smothers you...or...take a chance trying to do something offensively or stand up and have him advance his position and put you in danger of being subbed. He's literally made a science of it. That said, if there's anyone capable of slicing Maia up from his back it's Condit.

Such an intriguing fight.
 
i threw down £200 on condit for about £630 returns. i think at those odds i will just let it ride out, could go either way imo.
 
piglord said:
i threw down £200 on condit for about £630 returns. i think at those odds i will just let it ride out, could go either way imo.
Click to expand...

Wow where the hell did you get odds like that? I know a bit of Condi $ has come in and the line has dropped, but you have Condit +215? That's amazing. You can freeroll it now if you want or yeah, just let it ride. I favor Maia but not by a ton. Condit isn't Matt Brown. He's got a lot more to offer offensively with his grappling. Especially (as I mentioned before) those elbows.
 
some euro books put up the lines before the americans and the price was outrageously off so i hammered it. i actually tried to put more on but they limited it to £200. probably freeroll would be the smart move but i am a degen and i do favour condit, albeit very slightly.
 
piglord said:
some euro books put up the lines before the americans and the price was outrageously off so i hammered it. i actually tried to put more on but they limited it to £200. probably freeroll would be the smart move but i am a degen and i do favour condit, albeit very slightly.
Click to expand...

I might just pass. Condit is one of my favorite fighters and where the line is now, I don't see much value either way. Might just root for NBK and not put any $ on it. Or play a couple props really small just for fun.

I think Condit should maybe be WW champ right now. I scored it for him vs Robbie (though Robbie is a favorite of mine too, so whatever).
 
I think livebetting Condit as usual can be a good idea, if Maia lands a takedown and holds him down for a minute or so without gaining any ground I think the livebet odds could get pretty sweet on Condit.
 
Maia most likely outgrapples Condit, but the 3rd round will get interesting.
 
Condit will come in with a gameplan made by JacksonWink. Brown was actually doing well in the third round and tagged Maia a couple of times, he just made a mistake by jumping into his guard. As long as Condit survives early on, the takedowns will become harder and harder to get for Maia and he will start gassing. A draw actually could be worth a tiny bet since I can see Maia taking the first two rounds and then dropping the third 10-8.
 
brown looked considerably older than we're used to in the maia fight I thought, condit is still in his prime or at least near it.
 
Roads55 said:
brown looked considerably older than we're used to in the maia fight I thought, condit is still in his prime or at least near it.
Click to expand...

Idk if I agree; condit has had a long career alrdy.. he talked about retirement after the Lawler loss...
 
Brown actually impressed me a lot in his loss to Maia. I figured he'd be subbed much earlier.
 
Roads55 said:
brown looked considerably older than we're used to in the maia fight I thought, condit is still in his prime or at least near it.
Click to expand...

What do you mean by he looked older? Being wrestlefucked and grounded by Maia is not an indication to me that he looked old, Maia will do that to 95% of WW's.
 
Seriously considering one of my biggest bets on Condit here if there isn't a red flag that pops up. Against his recent competition, Maia hasn't had to worry about basically blitzing his opponents for a takedown because none of them really had the ability to make Maia pay for it. Condit's TDD is obviously worrying but its comforting to know that Jackson is gonna put together a gameplan for Condit to avoid them at all costs
 
mkess101 said:
Condit generally has a terrific offensive guard so it will be really interesting to see how that plays out vs Maia. And when I say offensive guard I don't just mean threatening with subs. He's excellent at limiting damage to himself while unleashing brutal elbows off his back. But Maia's top game is just a different animal. The second guys open their guard even an inch to do anything offensively, Maia takes that inch of real estate. Your choice against him is be content to close your guard and play defense, losing the round while he smothers you...or...take a chance trying to do something offensively or stand up and have him advance his position and put you in danger of being subbed. He's literally made a science of it. That said, if there's anyone capable of slicing Maia up from his back it's Condit.

Such an intriguing fight.
Click to expand...

Maia has so consistently made people look bad on the ground and I don't think Condit will be any different (Gunnar Nelson). IMO if Maia gets top position that is pretty much the end of the round.

Condit looks awesome off of his back against most guys in the UFC but I don't think this will be the case v. Maia.

Condit's main chance of winning is outpointing Maia on the feet and avoiding the ground and clinch game altogether. This was how prime Anderson Silva beat Maia back in the day in that legendary stinker of a fight.
 
Maia takes every ww down. Condit gets taken down by anyone that actually tries. Maia doesnt waste time playing games with his guard anymore and will just take guy's back/mount and stay there. But if Carlos uses the butterfly guard or just stays on his back long enough he might be able to create space enough to get up if Maia has to work his position. But in the end I think Maia survives the stand up to land takedowns most of the time and get the w in this fight.
 
UFC for Sept 17 announced!
Crazy card and solid leans. Wow September keeps on giving.



Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson
Derek Brunson vs. Uriah Hall
Evan Dunham vs. Abel Trujillo
Manny Gamburyan vs. Alejandro Perez
Chas Skelly vs. Maximo Blanco
Sam Sicilia vs. Gabriel Benitez
Joey Gomez vs. Jose Quinonez
 
kenCs said:
UFC for Sept 17 announced!
Crazy card and solid leans. Wow September keeps on giving.



Dustin Poirier vs. Michael Johnson
Derek Brunson vs. Uriah Hall
Evan Dunham vs. Abel Trujillo
Manny Gamburyan vs. Alejandro Perez
Chas Skelly vs. Maximo Blanco
Sam Sicilia vs. Gabriel Benitez
Joey Gomez vs. Jose Quinonez
Click to expand...
Like this card so far, and definitely have some solid leans
 
Why is Latifi +220 v. Bader? I don't understand this line. I think this is a really close fight. I know Bader 2.0 has been pretty good but I really don't see him just walking through Latifi.

This is going to be a tough fight for both guys. Consensus play is hitting Latifi ML for a couple units?!
 
LEMONZEST said:
Why is Latifi +220 v. Bader? I don't understand this line. I think this is a really close fight. I know Bader 2.0 has been pretty good but I really don't see him just walking through Latifi.

This is going to be a tough fight for both guys. Consensus play is hitting Latifi ML for a couple units?!
Click to expand...
I love Bader in this fight, personally. Gonna use his moneyline in a parlay and also play Latifi round 1. Think an early overhand is his only shot at beating Bader
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,283,134
Messages
58,483,842
Members
176,049
Latest member
Rick Quid

Share this page

Back
Top