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Fiziev opens as a favorite vs Gaethje

The bookies set the opening odds to attract bettors. With Fiziev as the fav, I imagine Justin will get a lot of money put on him. The opening odds often don’t remotely reflect the closing odds. That is how the bookies always win.
 
I think Justin should still be the favorite, mainly due to his activity and how Fiziev hasn't fought in a long time since that knee injury

Altho, that first fight was pretty competitive until the third so I still understand it being close. But I would have Justin as a decent favorite here
 
TempleoftheDog said:
The bookies set the opening odds to attract bettors. With Fiziev as the fav, I imagine Justin will get a lot of money put on him. The opening odds often don’t remotely reflect the closing odds. That is how the bookies always win.
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This is nonsense. The bookies' job is to attract balanced action.

If the action is imbalanced, the line changes, and continues changing, until the action is balanced.

All opening lines are simply the bookies' prediction of how the market will bet.
 
TempleoftheDog said:
The bookies set the opening odds to attract bettors. With Fiziev as the fav, I imagine Justin will get a lot of money put on him. The opening odds often don’t remotely reflect the closing odds. That is how the bookies always win.
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Only thing that makes sense yeah.
 
Well on the other hand Justin is fighting after hard KO loss we don't know how he will look like now.
He looked bad against Max and he can slide anytime now - maybe he even is on the downside since Max who knows.
It seems like betting sites have some kind of inside info of what is going on in camps because they predicted that Cejudo who looked elite and only was losing to elite since his return was underdog against B-level Yadong. They knew he will slip.
 
MrBlackheart said:
So after losing the first fight, blowing out his knee the next fight, and a long layoff, Rafael opens as a -125 favorite(Bet ESPN)? I don’t question Vegas but I was shock to see this. I was expecting -145 Justin.
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All true.
Fiziev won the fight till he gassed though and Gaethje is 36 now with being knocked out recently.
Fiziev's gas tank is my biggest question in this fight. Is this 5 rounds?
 
Harlekin said:
All true.
Fiziev won the fight till he gassed though and Gaethje is 36 now with being knocked out recently.
Fiziev's gas tank is my biggest question in this fight. Is this 5 rounds?
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Nope Gaethje / Fiziev 2 is confirmed as 3 rounds.
 
They are rebooking this one? interesting.

Good to see Fiziev back in the game.
 
Fiziev was favoured in the first fight too. I picked Geathje. Fiziev is a fighter who people are excited about as a rising prospect, I find they tend to be favoured over old proven fighters. I tend to lean towards the proven then the potential, sometimes I’m right sometimes I’m wrong. I’m definitely picking Geathje again in this fight and to me it’s an easy pick.
 
Honestly no one brings up how Fiziev dominate the first fight in the first half, it was alot closer than people admit. He was doing great until he gassed. Now add in that Gaethje is 1 fight away from retiring if he gets KO'd and is much older. Odds make sense to me. Who knows how Justin is after the Max KO.
 
Justin winning the first fight was a "holy fuck". Fiziev was putting it on him and was too fast for Justin. Justin showed what a formidable, high level fighter he is by surviving, getting the data and putting it on Fiziev later in the fight. It's probably Justin's most impressive win, not in terms of name value but showing how great a standup fighter he is, across a whole fight. Which is to say, beating Fiziev was a tall task.

I would favour Gaethje to be able to do it again, unless the Max fight and KO really affected him (this is why the KO was a mix of holy fuck and "damn that sucks", for a guy at his age/advanced career stage where a KO can really have an affect on their chin). I know Fiziev said the eye poke lowered his performance though. If that's true and it wasn't simply Fiziev fading, then Justin is in for a harder fight.
Justin's probably improved a little (eg look at the Poirier head kick), but idk if those improvements are things that would trouble Fiziev and make the fight look different.
 
makes no sense, justin has a full camp and was preparing for 5 rounds, he will have more cardio, output, and already fought fiziev and knows how to counter his style. Maybe they are banking on Justin being washed after the holloway fight but he took a year off and looked great before that fight, I think he finishes fiziev in round 3
 
Justin is now 36, old for a LW, and just got mauled by Holloway. Odds make sense to me.
 
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