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Now only Moody's of the big 3 rating agencies have the US sovereign rating at AAA (or Aaa in their case).
why i voted yes - i have yet to see a solid improvement of the US financial position. all i see is endlessly growing debt, endlessly growing debt interest repayment...
Aug 1 (Reuters) - Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the U.S. government's top credit rating, a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis two months ago.
Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills.
Fitch had first flagged the possibility of a downgrade in May, then maintained that position in June after the debt ceiling crisis was resolved, saying it intended to finalize the review in the third quarter of this year.
With the downgrade, it becomes the second major rating agency after Standard & Poor’s to strip the United States of its triple-A rating.
The dollar fell across a range of currencies, stock futures ticked down and Treasury futures rose after the announcement. But several investors and analysts said they expected the impact of the downgrade to be limited.
Fitch's move came two months after Democratic President Joe Biden and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives reached a debt ceiling agreement that lifted the government's $31.4 trillion borrowing limit, ending months of political brinkmanship.
"In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025," the rating agency said in a statement.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagreed with Fitch's downgrade, in a statement that called it "arbitrary and based on outdated data."
The White House had a similar view, saying it "strongly disagrees with this decision".
"It defies reality to downgrade the United States at a moment when President Biden has delivered the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world," said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
REPUTATIONAL DENT
Analysts said the move shows the depth of harm caused to the United States by repeated rounds of contentious debate over the debt ceiling, which pushed the nation to the brink of default in May.
"This basically tells you the U.S. government’s spending is a problem," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.
Fitch said repeated political standoffs and last-minute resolutions over the debt limit have eroded confidence in fiscal management.
Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors said the "U.S. overall will be seen as strong but I think it’s a little
in our armor."
"It is a dent against the U.S. reputation and standing," said Schulman.
Others expressed surprise at the timing, even though Fitch had flagged the possibility.
"I don't understand how they (Fitch) have worse information now than before the debt ceiling crisis was resolved," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project At The Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.
Still, investors saw limited long-term impact.
"I don't think you are going to see too many investors, especially those with a long-term investment strategy saying I should sell stocks because Fitch took us from AAA to AA+," said Jason Ware, chief investment officer at Albion Financial Group.
Investors use credit ratings to assess the risk profile of companies and governments when they raise financing in debt capital markets. Generally, the lower a borrower's rating, the higher its financing costs.
"This was unexpected, kind of came from left field," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta. "As far as the market impact, it's uncertain right now. The market is at a point where it's somewhat vulnerable to bad news."
Chart shows that the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ in 2023, following a similar move from S&P in 2011.
LIMITED IMPACT
In a previous debt ceiling crisis in 2011, Standard & Poor's cut the top "AAA" rating by one notch a few days after a debt ceiling deal, citing political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook. Its rating is still "AA-plus" - its second highest.
After that downgrade, U.S. stocks tumbled and the impact of the rating cut was felt across global stock markets, which were at the time already in the throes of the euro zone financial meltdown. Paradoxically, U.S. Treasuries prices rose because of a flight to quality from equities.
In May, Fitch had placed its "AAA" rating of U.S. sovereign debt on watch for a possible downgrade, citing downside risks, including political brinkmanship and a growing debt burden.
A Moody's Analytics report from May said a downgrade of Treasury debt would set off a cascade of credit implications and downgrades on the debt of many other institutions.
Other analysts had pointed to risks that another downgrade by a major rating agency could affect investment portfolios that hold top-rated securities.
Raymond James analyst Ed Mills, however, said on Tuesday he did not anticipate markets to react significantly to the news.
"My understanding has been that after the S&P downgrade a lot of these contracts were reworked to say 'triple-A' or 'government-guaranteed', and so the government guarantee is more important than the Fitch rating," he said.
Others echoed that view.
"Overall, this announcement is much more likely to be dismissed than have a lasting disruptive impact on the U.S. economy and markets," Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queens' College, said in a LinkedIn post.
Fitch cuts US credit rating to AA+; Treasury calls it 'arbitrary' | Reuters
The Fitch statement:
Key Rating Drivers
Ratings Downgrade: The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to 'AA' and 'AAA' rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.
Erosion of Governance: In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. These factors, along with several economic shocks as well as tax cuts and new spending initiatives, have contributed to successive debt increases over the last decade. Additionally, there has been only limited progress in tackling medium-term challenges related to rising social security and Medicare costs due to an aging population.
Rising General Government Deficits: We expect the general government (GG) deficit to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022, reflecting cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher interest burden. Additionally, state and local governments are expected to run an overall deficit of 0.6% of GDP this year after running a small surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2022. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook, with cumulative savings of USD1.5 trillion (3.9% of GDP) by 2033 according to the Congressional Budget Office. The near-term impact of the Act is estimated at USD70 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2024 and USD112 billion (0.4% of GDP) in 2025. Fitch does not expect any further substantive fiscal consolidation measures ahead of the November 2024 elections.
Fitch forecasts a GG deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further widening to 6.9% of GDP in 2025. The larger deficits will be driven by weak 2024 GDP growth, a higher interest burden and wider state and local government deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2024-2025 (in line with the historical 20-year average). The interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 10% by 2025 (compared to 2.8% for the 'AA' median and 1% for the 'AAA' median) due to the higher debt level as well as sustained higher interest rates compared with pre-pandemic levels.
General Government Debt to Rise: Lower deficits and high nominal GDP growth reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio over the last two years from the pandemic high of 122.3% in 2020; however, at 112.9% this year it is still well above the pre-pandemic 2019 level of 100.1%. The GG debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise over the forecast period, reaching 118.4% by 2025. The debt ratio is over two-and-a-half times higher than the 'AAA' median of 39.3% of GDP and 'AA' median of 44.7% of GDP. Fitch's longer-term projections forecast additional debt/GDP rises, increasing the vulnerability of the U.S. fiscal position to future economic shocks.
Medium-term Fiscal Challenges Unaddressed: Over the next decade, higher interest rates and the rising debt stock will increase the interest service burden, while an aging population and rising healthcare costs will raise spending on the elderly absent fiscal policy reforms. The CBO projects that interest costs will double by 2033 to 3.6% of GDP. The CBO also estimates a rise in mandatory spending on Medicare and social security by 1.5% of GDP over the same period. The CBO projects that the Social Security fund will be depleted by 2033 and the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (used to pay for benefits under Medicare Part A) will be depleted by 2035 under current laws, posing additional challenges for the fiscal trajectory unless timely corrective measures are implemented. Additionally, the 2017 tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, but there is likely to be political pressure to make these permanent as has been the case in the past, resulting in higher deficit projections.
Exceptional Strengths Support Ratings: Several structural strengths underpin the United States' ratings. These include its large, advanced, well-diversified and high-income economy, supported by a dynamic business environment. Critically, the U.S. dollar is the world's preeminent reserve currency, which gives the government extraordinary financing flexibility.
Economy to Slip into Recession: Tighter credit conditions, weakening business investment, and a slowdown in consumption will push the U.S. economy into a mild recession in 4Q23 and 1Q24, according to Fitch projections. The agency sees U.S. annual real GDP growth slowing to 1.2% this year from 2.1% in 2022 and overall growth of just 0.5% in 2024. Job vacancies remain higher and the labor participation rate is still lower (by 1 pp) than pre-pandemic levels, which could negatively affect medium-term potential growth.
Fed Tightening: The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp in March, May and July 2023. Fitch expects one further hike to 5.5% to 5.75% by September. The resilience of the economy and the labor market are complicating the Fed's goal of bringing inflation towards its 2% target. While headline inflation fell to 3% in June, core PCE inflation, the Fed's key price index, remained stubbornly high at 4.1% yoy. This will likely preclude cuts in the Federal Funds Rate until March 2024. Additionally, the Fed is continuing to reduce its holdings of mortgage backed-securities and U.S. Treasuries, which is further tightening financial conditions. Since January, these assets on the Fed balance sheet have fallen by over USD500 billion as of end-July 2023.
ESG - Governance: The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for Political Stability and Rights and '5[+]' for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch's proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. The U.S. has a high WBGI ranking at 79, reflecting its well-established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption.
Additionally, they warn that the following could lead to more negative ratings actions...
why i voted yes - i have yet to see a solid improvement of the US financial position. all i see is endlessly growing debt, endlessly growing debt interest repayment...
Aug 1 (Reuters) - Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the U.S. government's top credit rating, a move that drew an angry response from the White House and surprised investors, coming despite the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis two months ago.
Fitch downgraded the United States to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated down-the-wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the government’s ability to pay its bills.
Fitch had first flagged the possibility of a downgrade in May, then maintained that position in June after the debt ceiling crisis was resolved, saying it intended to finalize the review in the third quarter of this year.
With the downgrade, it becomes the second major rating agency after Standard & Poor’s to strip the United States of its triple-A rating.
The dollar fell across a range of currencies, stock futures ticked down and Treasury futures rose after the announcement. But several investors and analysts said they expected the impact of the downgrade to be limited.
Fitch's move came two months after Democratic President Joe Biden and the Republican-controlled House of Representatives reached a debt ceiling agreement that lifted the government's $31.4 trillion borrowing limit, ending months of political brinkmanship.
"In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025," the rating agency said in a statement.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen disagreed with Fitch's downgrade, in a statement that called it "arbitrary and based on outdated data."
The White House had a similar view, saying it "strongly disagrees with this decision".
"It defies reality to downgrade the United States at a moment when President Biden has delivered the strongest recovery of any major economy in the world," said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.
REPUTATIONAL DENT
Analysts said the move shows the depth of harm caused to the United States by repeated rounds of contentious debate over the debt ceiling, which pushed the nation to the brink of default in May.
"This basically tells you the U.S. government’s spending is a problem," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA.
Fitch said repeated political standoffs and last-minute resolutions over the debt limit have eroded confidence in fiscal management.
Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors said the "U.S. overall will be seen as strong but I think it’s a little
in our armor.""It is a dent against the U.S. reputation and standing," said Schulman.
Others expressed surprise at the timing, even though Fitch had flagged the possibility.
"I don't understand how they (Fitch) have worse information now than before the debt ceiling crisis was resolved," said Wendy Edelberg, director of The Hamilton Project At The Brookings Institution in Washington D.C.
Still, investors saw limited long-term impact.
"I don't think you are going to see too many investors, especially those with a long-term investment strategy saying I should sell stocks because Fitch took us from AAA to AA+," said Jason Ware, chief investment officer at Albion Financial Group.
Investors use credit ratings to assess the risk profile of companies and governments when they raise financing in debt capital markets. Generally, the lower a borrower's rating, the higher its financing costs.
"This was unexpected, kind of came from left field," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services in Atlanta. "As far as the market impact, it's uncertain right now. The market is at a point where it's somewhat vulnerable to bad news."
Chart shows that the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency rating was downgraded by Fitch to AA+ in 2023, following a similar move from S&P in 2011.
LIMITED IMPACT
In a previous debt ceiling crisis in 2011, Standard & Poor's cut the top "AAA" rating by one notch a few days after a debt ceiling deal, citing political polarization and insufficient steps to right the nation's fiscal outlook. Its rating is still "AA-plus" - its second highest.
After that downgrade, U.S. stocks tumbled and the impact of the rating cut was felt across global stock markets, which were at the time already in the throes of the euro zone financial meltdown. Paradoxically, U.S. Treasuries prices rose because of a flight to quality from equities.
In May, Fitch had placed its "AAA" rating of U.S. sovereign debt on watch for a possible downgrade, citing downside risks, including political brinkmanship and a growing debt burden.
A Moody's Analytics report from May said a downgrade of Treasury debt would set off a cascade of credit implications and downgrades on the debt of many other institutions.
Other analysts had pointed to risks that another downgrade by a major rating agency could affect investment portfolios that hold top-rated securities.
Raymond James analyst Ed Mills, however, said on Tuesday he did not anticipate markets to react significantly to the news.
"My understanding has been that after the S&P downgrade a lot of these contracts were reworked to say 'triple-A' or 'government-guaranteed', and so the government guarantee is more important than the Fitch rating," he said.
Others echoed that view.
"Overall, this announcement is much more likely to be dismissed than have a lasting disruptive impact on the U.S. economy and markets," Mohamed El-Erian, President at Queens' College, said in a LinkedIn post.
Fitch cuts US credit rating to AA+; Treasury calls it 'arbitrary' | Reuters
The Fitch statement:
Key Rating Drivers
Ratings Downgrade: The rating downgrade of the United States reflects the expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years, a high and growing general government debt burden, and the erosion of governance relative to 'AA' and 'AAA' rated peers over the last two decades that has manifested in repeated debt limit standoffs and last-minute resolutions.
Erosion of Governance: In Fitch's view, there has been a steady deterioration in standards of governance over the last 20 years, including on fiscal and debt matters, notwithstanding the June bipartisan agreement to suspend the debt limit until January 2025. The repeated debt-limit political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management. In addition, the government lacks a medium-term fiscal framework, unlike most peers, and has a complex budgeting process. These factors, along with several economic shocks as well as tax cuts and new spending initiatives, have contributed to successive debt increases over the last decade. Additionally, there has been only limited progress in tackling medium-term challenges related to rising social security and Medicare costs due to an aging population.
Rising General Government Deficits: We expect the general government (GG) deficit to rise to 6.3% of GDP in 2023, from 3.7% in 2022, reflecting cyclically weaker federal revenues, new spending initiatives and a higher interest burden. Additionally, state and local governments are expected to run an overall deficit of 0.6% of GDP this year after running a small surplus of 0.2% of GDP in 2022. Cuts to non-defense discretionary spending (15% of total federal spending) as agreed in the Fiscal Responsibility Act offer only a modest improvement to the medium-term fiscal outlook, with cumulative savings of USD1.5 trillion (3.9% of GDP) by 2033 according to the Congressional Budget Office. The near-term impact of the Act is estimated at USD70 billion (0.3% of GDP) in 2024 and USD112 billion (0.4% of GDP) in 2025. Fitch does not expect any further substantive fiscal consolidation measures ahead of the November 2024 elections.
Fitch forecasts a GG deficit of 6.6% of GDP in 2024 and a further widening to 6.9% of GDP in 2025. The larger deficits will be driven by weak 2024 GDP growth, a higher interest burden and wider state and local government deficits of 1.2% of GDP in 2024-2025 (in line with the historical 20-year average). The interest-to-revenue ratio is expected to reach 10% by 2025 (compared to 2.8% for the 'AA' median and 1% for the 'AAA' median) due to the higher debt level as well as sustained higher interest rates compared with pre-pandemic levels.
General Government Debt to Rise: Lower deficits and high nominal GDP growth reduced the debt-to-GDP ratio over the last two years from the pandemic high of 122.3% in 2020; however, at 112.9% this year it is still well above the pre-pandemic 2019 level of 100.1%. The GG debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise over the forecast period, reaching 118.4% by 2025. The debt ratio is over two-and-a-half times higher than the 'AAA' median of 39.3% of GDP and 'AA' median of 44.7% of GDP. Fitch's longer-term projections forecast additional debt/GDP rises, increasing the vulnerability of the U.S. fiscal position to future economic shocks.
Medium-term Fiscal Challenges Unaddressed: Over the next decade, higher interest rates and the rising debt stock will increase the interest service burden, while an aging population and rising healthcare costs will raise spending on the elderly absent fiscal policy reforms. The CBO projects that interest costs will double by 2033 to 3.6% of GDP. The CBO also estimates a rise in mandatory spending on Medicare and social security by 1.5% of GDP over the same period. The CBO projects that the Social Security fund will be depleted by 2033 and the Hospital Insurance Trust Fund (used to pay for benefits under Medicare Part A) will be depleted by 2035 under current laws, posing additional challenges for the fiscal trajectory unless timely corrective measures are implemented. Additionally, the 2017 tax cuts are set to expire in 2025, but there is likely to be political pressure to make these permanent as has been the case in the past, resulting in higher deficit projections.
Exceptional Strengths Support Ratings: Several structural strengths underpin the United States' ratings. These include its large, advanced, well-diversified and high-income economy, supported by a dynamic business environment. Critically, the U.S. dollar is the world's preeminent reserve currency, which gives the government extraordinary financing flexibility.
Economy to Slip into Recession: Tighter credit conditions, weakening business investment, and a slowdown in consumption will push the U.S. economy into a mild recession in 4Q23 and 1Q24, according to Fitch projections. The agency sees U.S. annual real GDP growth slowing to 1.2% this year from 2.1% in 2022 and overall growth of just 0.5% in 2024. Job vacancies remain higher and the labor participation rate is still lower (by 1 pp) than pre-pandemic levels, which could negatively affect medium-term potential growth.
Fed Tightening: The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp in March, May and July 2023. Fitch expects one further hike to 5.5% to 5.75% by September. The resilience of the economy and the labor market are complicating the Fed's goal of bringing inflation towards its 2% target. While headline inflation fell to 3% in June, core PCE inflation, the Fed's key price index, remained stubbornly high at 4.1% yoy. This will likely preclude cuts in the Federal Funds Rate until March 2024. Additionally, the Fed is continuing to reduce its holdings of mortgage backed-securities and U.S. Treasuries, which is further tightening financial conditions. Since January, these assets on the Fed balance sheet have fallen by over USD500 billion as of end-July 2023.
ESG - Governance: The U.S. has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for Political Stability and Rights and '5[+]' for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in Fitch's proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. The U.S. has a high WBGI ranking at 79, reflecting its well-established rights for participation in the political process, strong institutional capacity, effective rule of law and a low level of corruption.
Additionally, they warn that the following could lead to more negative ratings actions...
- Public Finances: A marked increase in general government debt, for example due to a failure to address medium-term public spending and revenue challenges;
- Macroeconomic policy, performance and prospects: A decline in the coherence and credibility of policymaking that undermines the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar, thus diminishing the government's financing flexibility.
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