I think Nurmag beats everybody in the division with the exception of Ferg.
I just see Ferg as the embodiment of a bad matchup for him- a guy who is ultra-tough to get out of there so you will be banking on him being in the fight for five rounds. And Tony is one of those guys who if you start to fatigue or wilt, he will just amp up the pressure and overwhelm you.
So Khabib will undoubtedly be able to ground him and might have some damn good success keeping him grounded and landing some gnp. But, Tony has a funky style that makes it difficult to really put him in bad spots on the ground. His grappling skills are slick as hell and I don't see him giving Khabib much to work with.
As the fight wears on, the takedowns are harder to come by. In the standup, of course, Tony can be vulnerable, too, but I think he's better and more diverse and throws with more volume than Khabib.
fight goes deep and even if Tony drops rounds 1 and 2, he begins to take over and wins the third and the championship rounds big.