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That’s right, People of the Dawg,
This Saturday, the GOAT himself will step back in the cage, at age 45, to face the #2 ranked Bellator heavyweight Tim Johnson—and let’s be honest, that’s kind of fucking crazy. The man is 45. That’s like like half-dead in fighter years. And he’s not fighting a similarly-aged fighter, he’s fighting a tough, ranked opponent. And Fedor will probably still come forward and try launch Johnson’s head into low-Earth orbit, because, well— he’s still Fedor after all.
I wanted to make this thread because there’s tons of talk on Sherdog about “prime Fedor”—but what about the current version? What does that version bring to the table? So I’m going to break this fight down, look at what each fighter does well, what each has to watch out for, and give my assessment on whether this is a fight Fedor can or will win at this stage in his career.
On October 23, Fedor returns to fight in his home country for the first time in a decade, against this fellow who vaguely resembles a strongman from a traveling circus in the late 1800s:
TIMOTHY JOHNSON
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 260
Reach: 78”
Record: 15-7
Ranking: #2 Bellator HW
Odds: +112
Johnson is 3-1 in his last 4, but 3-3 in his last 6. After 1st round KO losses to Cheick Kongo and Vitaly Minakov, Johnson rebounded with 1st round (T)KO wins of his own, over Tyrell Fortune (giving Fortune his only defeat to date) and Matt Mitrione, as well as a split decision win over Kongo in a rematch which earned him a shot at the Bellator Interim HW title. He lost that fight by decision to Fedor Team’s Valentin Moldavsky.
NOTABLE WINS: Shamil Abdurakhimov, Marcin Tybura, Cheick Kongo, Tyrell Fortune, Matt Mitrione. *Johnson arguably should also have a win over Alexander Volkov, as every MMA media outlet under the sun (including Sherdog) scored the fight for Johnson, only to have the judges award it to Volkov.
NOTABLE LOSSES: Alexander Volkov*, Junior Albini, Jared Rosholt, Cheick Kongo, Vitaly Minakov, Valentin Moldavsky.
WHAT JOHNSON DOES WELL/WHAT FEDOR HAS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Johnson is a southpaw fighter, whose main offense consists of pressing straight forward in bursts while throwing combinations, looking to land a big shot. Johnson has a good deal of power, and he can do damage and finish opponents if he lands. If he doesn’t land, his preference is to get into a clinch position if possible. Johnson was a Div 2 wrestler at Minnesota State, and as a member of Xtreme Couture, he likes to work that clinch heavy dirty boxing style that Randy Couture popularized.
If his opponent doesn’t circle out or counter effectively as Johnson moves forward, he’ll just continue pushing forward, and push them all the way back to the cage and look to clinch. From here, he will either land shots or look for a takedown. On the ground, Johnson has nasty ground and pound, and can do a lot of damage from there. With Fedor’s chin in the state that it is, getting stuck on the ground could mean the end of the fight. Johnson’s preference to blitz straight forward in bursts poses a couple of problems for Fedor. In the Fortune fight, we saw Fortune do well early on at avoiding Johnson’s punches by circling out. Even when Fortune circled toward Johnson’s left (power) hand, Johnson didn’t have the speed or wherewithal to capitalize. In one instance, Fortune had to basically turn and run in order to circle out and get off the cage, but was able to circle out effectively and avoid damage.
When Fortune didn’t circle out and tried to counter, that’s when he was caught, and suffered his only career defeat.
Fedor, for his part, rarely circles out when he’s under fire; instead, he tends to move backwards in straight lines. But while he doesn’t circle out often, he is usually effective at managing distance, as he is typically faster than his opponent. The same will likely be true against Johnson despite the age difference, but Fedor will want to be careful when moving backwards. And it’s not just the big bomb that Fedor needs to worry about while moving back—it’s also what happens next if Johnson doesn’t land that shot.
If Johnson doesn’t land the big shot, he’ll continue pushing forward as far as his opponent will let him, and press his opponent back to the fence and look to clinch. In the rematch with Kongo, Johnson effectively controlled Kongo in the cage, and also took him down from this position.and landed some pretty vicious GnP. In the Moldavsky fight, Johnson was likewise able to press Moldavsky straight back on to the cage.
Being held against the cage is an area where Fedor has historically had issues. Brett Rogers, Bigfoot Silva, and Dan Henderson were all able to get Fedor backed up against the cage, and had success controlling Fedor there.
It’s worth noting that Fedor trains much more in a cage these days than he did back during the Strikeforce years, and we have seen a couple of improvements in regards to not getting stuck there. In the Maldonado fight, Fedor found ways to keep his back off the cage even while hurt and exhausted. And in Fedor’s fight with Frank Mir, he once again found himself backed against the cage, but rather than getting stuck there, he used his judo to find his way out.
HOW CAN JOHNSON WIN?
In one of two main ways: either landing a big shot on Fedor’s currently unreliable chin, or by sapping Fedor’s recently questionable cardio with clinchwork and dirty boxing, eventually scoring the takedown for a GnP TKO. Johnson isn’t known for taking opponents down with single leg and double leg takedowns, but he has done so at times. Johnson was able to grab one of Kongo’s leg kicks when Kongo got lazy with it, and score a takedown. From there, Johnson landed some heavy shots, so if Johnson can get Fedor to the ground he may do damage or end the fight there. I find a Johnson win by decision unlikely. Fedor historically has not had cardio issues throughout his career, but this has been more questionable in recent times. He looked tired midway through round 1 against Chael, and that’s when he was taken down after having stuffed several of Chael’s takedowns up to that point. Fedor has also never lost a decision in his career, going 9-0 in fights that have gone the distance, so I think we’d have to favor him there. That said, a Fedor fight hasn’t gone out of the first round in 5 years, so I think a decision is unlikely. I’m not all that sure his chin would hold up for that long either. This fight will likely be a short one.
FEDOR-GOAT “The Last Emperor” EMELIANENKO
Age: 45
Height: 6’0
Weight: 240
Reach: 76”
Record: 39-6-1
Currently unranked due to inactivity
Odds: -189
The greatest mixed martial artist to ever step in a ring or cage to compete for our bloodthirsty amusement, Fedor Emelianenko is also 3-1 in his last 4. He is 4-2 in his last 6, and overall is 5-2 since returning from retirement. In the Bellator HW Grand Prix, Fedor went 2-1, beating Frank Mir and Chael Sonnen before losing to Ryan Bader in the finals. He last fought almost 2 years ago, beating Rampage Jackson by KO in round 1. Fedor is a Master of Sport in sambo and decorated black belt judoka, with fast hands and KO power.
NOTABLE WINS: Ricardo Arona, Babalu Sobral, Semmy Schilt, Heath Herring, Minotauro Nogueira x 2, Gary Goodridge, Mark Coleman x2, Kevin Randleman, Mirko Cro Cop, Mark Hunt, Matt Lindland, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Jeff Monson, Satoshi Ishii, Pedro Rizzo, Frank Mir, Chael Sonnen, Rampage Jackson.
NOTABLE LOSSES: Fabricio Werdum, Bigfoot Silva, Dan Henderson, Matt Mitrione, Ryan Bader.
WHAT FEDOR DOES WELL/WHAT JOHNSON HAS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Fedor’s main advantages these days come from his speed and power. At 45 years of age, he’s nowhere near as quick as he was in his prime, but he has retained the speed advantage over his opponents during his return more often that not. Fedor can still be explosive and unpredictable at times; while known for throwing Russian hooks and his right hand lead, we’ve also seen him reverse a Chael Sonnen takedown midair, bait Sonnen into taking mount only to sweep him from that position, and hip toss Frank Mir to the mat. Despite his flaws and obvious wear and tear, he has also still consistently shown the ability to time his opponents and land land big shots. While Johnson has a decent chin overall, he has been caught and stopped, both while closing distance and at range. Of course, the same can be said about Fedor. And that is what makes this—and all recent Fedor fights—so hard to predict.
But Johnson is not a fighter who is light on his feet like Mitrione or Bader is, and he should have a tougher time closing distance on Fedor or connecting. While Fedor may sometimes get overzealous when throwing combinations, he still has decent reflexes and pretty good head movement, and can generally avoid damage against slower opponents.
One of the things Johnson did well against Fortune was to slowly cut him off and close the distance, so that he didn’t have as much room to move and circle out. When Rampage tried to do this to Fedor, Fedor went first.
While not as varied a striker as he was in his prime by a long shot, Fedor still has a lot of available tools to use against Johnson. He should utilize his jab to keep Johnson back. Fedor had good success putting Rampage on the defensive, by keeping him guessing as to whether it was a left or right hand coming next. While the Maldonado fight is remembered for that disastrous (for Fedor) 1st round, Fedor showed a lot of weapons after that: he threw a flying knee (!), a head kick, and threw knees from the Thai Clinch as well. Fedor also varied his attacks well against Rampage, leading frequently with the left rather than his famed right hand lead, and mixing in leg and body kicks. Fedor is going to need to keep Johnson backing up and keep him guessing.
Once an excellent grappler, age and injuries have mostly made Fedor unable to grapple for extended periods. He still displays it in short bursts when needed, such as the throw on Mir that was mentioned earlier, and the reversal of Chael’s takedown attempt. While Johnson is probably too big to reverse or sweep like he did to Chael, Fedor could potentially still throw him as he did to a similarly-sized Mir, or off balance him. In Fedor’s last fight against Rampage, he quickly ducked a Rampage punch and used Rampage’s momentum to off balance him. This opened up a chance for Fedor to back Rampage against the cage and land some shots.
CAN FEDOR WIN THIS FIGHT?
Not only is it a winnable fight, I think Fedor will win this fight. To do that, Fedor will need to exploit Johnson’s slower striking and movement, and either catch Johnson coming forward, or time Johnson and land a bomb. The Mir and Chael fights showed that Fedor is still quick to counter if he’s got a speed advantage on his opponent. When at range, Fedor will need to use his jab to keep Johnson back, and try to pressure Johnson and force him to move backwards where he’s not as effective. He will have to be watchful of Johnson’s blitzes forward. He needs to be ready to counter, or aware to not get stuck against the cage if he’s moving backwards. This will be an interesting look at where Fedor is at, at age 45; Johnson is historically the type of opponent that Fedor would handle easily in his prime years. And it’s true that at age 45, a lot of fighters are faster than Fedor—I just don’t think Johnson is one of them. I think Fedor will still be the faster fighter, and will find Johnson’s chin early in round 1.
So, Doggers and the occasional Doggette, do you agree with my pick? Disagree? Are you interested, and will you be watching?
This Saturday, the GOAT himself will step back in the cage, at age 45, to face the #2 ranked Bellator heavyweight Tim Johnson—and let’s be honest, that’s kind of fucking crazy. The man is 45. That’s like like half-dead in fighter years. And he’s not fighting a similarly-aged fighter, he’s fighting a tough, ranked opponent. And Fedor will probably still come forward and try launch Johnson’s head into low-Earth orbit, because, well— he’s still Fedor after all.
I wanted to make this thread because there’s tons of talk on Sherdog about “prime Fedor”—but what about the current version? What does that version bring to the table? So I’m going to break this fight down, look at what each fighter does well, what each has to watch out for, and give my assessment on whether this is a fight Fedor can or will win at this stage in his career.
On October 23, Fedor returns to fight in his home country for the first time in a decade, against this fellow who vaguely resembles a strongman from a traveling circus in the late 1800s:
TIMOTHY JOHNSON
Age: 36
Height: 6’3
Weight: 260
Reach: 78”
Record: 15-7
Ranking: #2 Bellator HW
Odds: +112
Johnson is 3-1 in his last 4, but 3-3 in his last 6. After 1st round KO losses to Cheick Kongo and Vitaly Minakov, Johnson rebounded with 1st round (T)KO wins of his own, over Tyrell Fortune (giving Fortune his only defeat to date) and Matt Mitrione, as well as a split decision win over Kongo in a rematch which earned him a shot at the Bellator Interim HW title. He lost that fight by decision to Fedor Team’s Valentin Moldavsky.
NOTABLE WINS: Shamil Abdurakhimov, Marcin Tybura, Cheick Kongo, Tyrell Fortune, Matt Mitrione. *Johnson arguably should also have a win over Alexander Volkov, as every MMA media outlet under the sun (including Sherdog) scored the fight for Johnson, only to have the judges award it to Volkov.
NOTABLE LOSSES: Alexander Volkov*, Junior Albini, Jared Rosholt, Cheick Kongo, Vitaly Minakov, Valentin Moldavsky.
WHAT JOHNSON DOES WELL/WHAT FEDOR HAS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Johnson is a southpaw fighter, whose main offense consists of pressing straight forward in bursts while throwing combinations, looking to land a big shot. Johnson has a good deal of power, and he can do damage and finish opponents if he lands. If he doesn’t land, his preference is to get into a clinch position if possible. Johnson was a Div 2 wrestler at Minnesota State, and as a member of Xtreme Couture, he likes to work that clinch heavy dirty boxing style that Randy Couture popularized.
If his opponent doesn’t circle out or counter effectively as Johnson moves forward, he’ll just continue pushing forward, and push them all the way back to the cage and look to clinch. From here, he will either land shots or look for a takedown. On the ground, Johnson has nasty ground and pound, and can do a lot of damage from there. With Fedor’s chin in the state that it is, getting stuck on the ground could mean the end of the fight. Johnson’s preference to blitz straight forward in bursts poses a couple of problems for Fedor. In the Fortune fight, we saw Fortune do well early on at avoiding Johnson’s punches by circling out. Even when Fortune circled toward Johnson’s left (power) hand, Johnson didn’t have the speed or wherewithal to capitalize. In one instance, Fortune had to basically turn and run in order to circle out and get off the cage, but was able to circle out effectively and avoid damage.
It’s worth noting that Fedor trains much more in a cage these days than he did back during the Strikeforce years, and we have seen a couple of improvements in regards to not getting stuck there. In the Maldonado fight, Fedor found ways to keep his back off the cage even while hurt and exhausted. And in Fedor’s fight with Frank Mir, he once again found himself backed against the cage, but rather than getting stuck there, he used his judo to find his way out.
In one of two main ways: either landing a big shot on Fedor’s currently unreliable chin, or by sapping Fedor’s recently questionable cardio with clinchwork and dirty boxing, eventually scoring the takedown for a GnP TKO. Johnson isn’t known for taking opponents down with single leg and double leg takedowns, but he has done so at times. Johnson was able to grab one of Kongo’s leg kicks when Kongo got lazy with it, and score a takedown. From there, Johnson landed some heavy shots, so if Johnson can get Fedor to the ground he may do damage or end the fight there. I find a Johnson win by decision unlikely. Fedor historically has not had cardio issues throughout his career, but this has been more questionable in recent times. He looked tired midway through round 1 against Chael, and that’s when he was taken down after having stuffed several of Chael’s takedowns up to that point. Fedor has also never lost a decision in his career, going 9-0 in fights that have gone the distance, so I think we’d have to favor him there. That said, a Fedor fight hasn’t gone out of the first round in 5 years, so I think a decision is unlikely. I’m not all that sure his chin would hold up for that long either. This fight will likely be a short one.
FEDOR-GOAT “The Last Emperor” EMELIANENKO
Age: 45
Height: 6’0
Weight: 240
Reach: 76”
Record: 39-6-1
Currently unranked due to inactivity
Odds: -189
The greatest mixed martial artist to ever step in a ring or cage to compete for our bloodthirsty amusement, Fedor Emelianenko is also 3-1 in his last 4. He is 4-2 in his last 6, and overall is 5-2 since returning from retirement. In the Bellator HW Grand Prix, Fedor went 2-1, beating Frank Mir and Chael Sonnen before losing to Ryan Bader in the finals. He last fought almost 2 years ago, beating Rampage Jackson by KO in round 1. Fedor is a Master of Sport in sambo and decorated black belt judoka, with fast hands and KO power.
NOTABLE WINS: Ricardo Arona, Babalu Sobral, Semmy Schilt, Heath Herring, Minotauro Nogueira x 2, Gary Goodridge, Mark Coleman x2, Kevin Randleman, Mirko Cro Cop, Mark Hunt, Matt Lindland, Tim Sylvia, Andrei Arlovski, Brett Rogers, Jeff Monson, Satoshi Ishii, Pedro Rizzo, Frank Mir, Chael Sonnen, Rampage Jackson.
NOTABLE LOSSES: Fabricio Werdum, Bigfoot Silva, Dan Henderson, Matt Mitrione, Ryan Bader.
WHAT FEDOR DOES WELL/WHAT JOHNSON HAS TO WATCH OUT FOR:
Fedor’s main advantages these days come from his speed and power. At 45 years of age, he’s nowhere near as quick as he was in his prime, but he has retained the speed advantage over his opponents during his return more often that not. Fedor can still be explosive and unpredictable at times; while known for throwing Russian hooks and his right hand lead, we’ve also seen him reverse a Chael Sonnen takedown midair, bait Sonnen into taking mount only to sweep him from that position, and hip toss Frank Mir to the mat. Despite his flaws and obvious wear and tear, he has also still consistently shown the ability to time his opponents and land land big shots. While Johnson has a decent chin overall, he has been caught and stopped, both while closing distance and at range. Of course, the same can be said about Fedor. And that is what makes this—and all recent Fedor fights—so hard to predict.
But Johnson is not a fighter who is light on his feet like Mitrione or Bader is, and he should have a tougher time closing distance on Fedor or connecting. While Fedor may sometimes get overzealous when throwing combinations, he still has decent reflexes and pretty good head movement, and can generally avoid damage against slower opponents.
While not as varied a striker as he was in his prime by a long shot, Fedor still has a lot of available tools to use against Johnson. He should utilize his jab to keep Johnson back. Fedor had good success putting Rampage on the defensive, by keeping him guessing as to whether it was a left or right hand coming next. While the Maldonado fight is remembered for that disastrous (for Fedor) 1st round, Fedor showed a lot of weapons after that: he threw a flying knee (!), a head kick, and threw knees from the Thai Clinch as well. Fedor also varied his attacks well against Rampage, leading frequently with the left rather than his famed right hand lead, and mixing in leg and body kicks. Fedor is going to need to keep Johnson backing up and keep him guessing.
Not only is it a winnable fight, I think Fedor will win this fight. To do that, Fedor will need to exploit Johnson’s slower striking and movement, and either catch Johnson coming forward, or time Johnson and land a bomb. The Mir and Chael fights showed that Fedor is still quick to counter if he’s got a speed advantage on his opponent. When at range, Fedor will need to use his jab to keep Johnson back, and try to pressure Johnson and force him to move backwards where he’s not as effective. He will have to be watchful of Johnson’s blitzes forward. He needs to be ready to counter, or aware to not get stuck against the cage if he’s moving backwards. This will be an interesting look at where Fedor is at, at age 45; Johnson is historically the type of opponent that Fedor would handle easily in his prime years. And it’s true that at age 45, a lot of fighters are faster than Fedor—I just don’t think Johnson is one of them. I think Fedor will still be the faster fighter, and will find Johnson’s chin early in round 1.
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