Assuncao by decision. I think he breaks the streak. Their first fight was very competitive, but Assuncao has improved a lot more than Faber since then, especially with his striking. He is one of the more technical strikers in the sport now and is a legit Top-15 p4p guy, imo. I think this will be the fight to really showcase it, and the biggest worry I think will be his conditioning following the ankle injury (hopefully nothing serious), considering he doesn't have much experience with 5-rounders.
I think Faber will struggle with his counter game and pivots, and even though Assuncao has a lot of trouble finding his range when he is the one moving forward, I don't think Faber has the right skill-set to really threaten pulling away on the cards on the feet. But when Assuncao uses his jab (like in the 3rd round against Munhoz) he can be very effective on the front-foot and we might see more of that depending on how Faber approaches this. Rivera was giving Faber all sorts of problems with his counter-punching and Assuncao is the best at that in the division. Couple that in with a solid game utilizing his kicks and knees, which have troubled Faber over his career, and I see him having a bad time on the feet.
Assuncao's grappling has improved too. When Dillashaw took him down in the first he got up with a nice arm drag and elevation from butterfly guard, then pummeled for the underhook and drove Dillashaw off him. Dillashaw isn't the overall grappler Faber is, but he does some things and set-ups with his wrestling at not a totally different level. Assuncao is one of the best counter-wrestlers out of the lighter weight guys, and he might even be better than Faber in scrambles these days. His mat game is cold, the escapes from the bottom are very technical and crafty, his guard passing is still some of the best in the division if he gets to that position (against Lee he had that s-mount transition into the armbar), and he has a nasty and practical guard game, which is actually fairly rare in MMA today with how well-rounded fighters have gotten.
Assuncao shouldn't get frustrated if Faber tries to control the distance like he did against McDonald with the pot-shooting, and force him to create openings in other ways. I think he has shown that he won't be set-up so easily by foot traps like the Dillashaw fight showed, so Faber will likely need to show something new. Assuncao will need to have the right game-plan for Faber's right hand, especially the cross counter which along with his understanding of angles, he has gotten better at setting up over the past couple years. Still, despite Faber's technical improvements he still relies on athleticism quite a bit, and I don't see that being enough for the top guys in the division (Cruz, Dillashaw, Assuncao, Barao).
