Eddie Alvarez vs. Conor McGregor- BREAKDOWN and PREDICTION

[Azure]

Everyone forgets that one thing that Alverez has proven time and time again is that he can follow a gameplan for his fights and he can stick to it.

 

[fortheo]

I definitely do not think thaT Eddie should pressure conor in the early rounds--that's playing into conor's greatest strength--counters. Eddie has good footwork, especially lateral movement, and he should use that to fight carefully on the outside for the first round and make conor chase him and then feint (which he's great at) to draw out conor's attacks and get a read on them. Then once Eddie gets conor biting on faints, and once Eddie gets conir trying to stalk him (which conor will do) Eddie should hit well timed takedowns on the counter.


Pressuring conor from the beginning is a bad idea; there's a reason why even thick skulled Nate Diaz waited a round or two before putting on the pressure.

 

[DS7]

I definitely do not think thaT Eddie should pressure conor in the early rounds--that's playing into conor's greatest strength--counters.

It depends on how he pressures him. If he pressures him wildly like he does sometimes he is fucked but if he can use his footwork and get in range and trys to pressure him against the fence and then work on his grappling that`s a whole different story.

The fun thing about this fight is that there is actually lots of possibilitys. I could see Eddie winning by TKO or SUB, Conor by KO earlier or later, i could see a 5 round war, hell maybe Conor even surprises everyone with his grappling which btw is not as bad as people make it to be.

 

[fortheo]

It depends on how he pressures him. If he pressures him wildly like he does sometimes he is fucked but if he can use his footwork and get in range and trys to pressure him against the fence and then work on his grappling that`s a whole different story.

The fun thing about this fight is that there is actually lots of possibilitys. I could see Eddie winning by TKO or SUB, Conor by KO earlier or later, i could see a 5 round war, hell maybe Conor even surprises everyone with his grappling which btw is not as bad as people make it to be.

I just wouldn't risk pressuring conor at all in the first round—Conor punches hard enough, there's no need to amplify it by moving forward, especially considering it's easier to take a man down when he is walking forward you. I think the single leg will be there for Eddie. Also, Eddie is very competent at fighting off the back foot, more-so than most fighters Conor has faced. I expect him to approach the early rounds of this fight similarly to how he fought RDA

 

[DS7]

I just wouldn't risk pressuring conor at all in the first round—Conor punches hard enough, there's no need to amplify it by moving forward, especially considering it's easier to take a man down who is walking forward you. I think the single leg will be there for Eddie.

That`s true too, the Chad Mendes fight is there to take a page, but Conor also had tremendous success with that long reach advantage and was able to work Chad`s body perfectly which is also a possibilty in this fight.

I also don`t think Conor will pressure like he did against Mendes which made it easie to get taken down, he will be much more calm and collected but still agressive enough to keep his offensive pressure. The Diaz loss did wonders to him in that aspect.

 

[fortheo]

That`s true too, the Chad Mendes fight is there to take a page, but Conor also had tremendous success with that long reach advantage and was able to work Chad`s body perfectly which is also a possibilty in this fight.

Yeah, but Eddie is great at feinting—he pretty much sells those feints with his whole body—then he gets a jab, or whatever reaction out of Conor and ducks under for takedowns. It's worked for him several times in the past and I expect it to be key in this fight. He can definitely gauge conor's reaction with feints, then duck under for the single.

 

[$uicideboy$]

edward is like lawler the boy has taken so much damage dat chin is about to explode any second. he also looked banged up from training during the conference

 

[Spath]

I can't get over the inside leg kick (Alvarez on Pettis) gif that TS posted. One of the worst leg kicks that I remember seeing and he gets hit as well. I hope Eddie doesn't throw any kicks like that vs McGregor.

 

[BryanTheFighter]

Alvarez has a couple of different paths to victory, both with wrestling against the fence or sticking and moving while lacing the aggressive McGregor with counterpunches.

 

[Guru28]

It can go either way. Never doubt the unexpected.

However, I think it will be 2nd round TKO in favour of Conor. He has grown as a fighter and he is someone who believes that talent doesn't exist and it is the hard work and dedication that takes him top of the world.

 

[mrbaapt]

2:02 of the 2nd round of McGregor vs Diaz, watch it. Diaz lands that 1-2 combo and Conor is gassed, shook and off balance for the rest of the round until he tapped.

Alvarez will apply the same strategy but instead of a sub he will TKO with strikes.

 

[MonkeyGirl]

Hi there fellow sherbros, in the past few days i have been analyzing both fighters and i want to share with you my thoughts on this exciting main event we have in just a couple of days so let`s fucking do this!




- In Eddie Alvarez we have a guy who has been a world champion in every organization he has been around the world, a guy who fought the elite of the elite trough his career and known for his well rounded,crazy slugfest style of fighting.

He has now being training under Mark Henry who is a studious of the game and highly praised by every fighter who trains with, he analyzes their opponents and finds their strenghts, weaknesses and comes up with fantastic gameplans. That`s clearly being very benefitial for Eddie who became world champion in his fourth UFC fight, which is super impressive.


The path for Eddie Alvarez:

-So for Eddie he needs to be first, when the bell rings Conor immediately takes control of the center because he has pressuring style of attack, Eddie can`t let that happen. He needs to take control, bring the pressure to Conor and use his underrated footwork to overcome the reach disadvantage, get in range and then move on the second phase of his gameplan: Grind him out.

-Nate had decent success in the clinch against Conor with that non stop pressure, Conor has the fight progressed was able to adjust and deal with that clinch work but Nate is no Eddie Alvarez when it comes to pressuring while making your opponent work and making him defend the takedown (that Nate couldn`t present).



-Pressure, he is trying to escape from that right window, Eddie steps in(footkwork) with the right hook, makes him go the other way and reset to the initial position.

-From there, pressure him to a small space and implement the grappling.

-Another chance of success to Eddie is inside leg kicks, Conor is a southpaw like Pettis and uses that wide open stance which leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks. Pettis is also another southpaw and Eddie had success with those:

- A big question leading up to this fight is "can Eddie take Conor`s shots?", it`s a big "If" but Eddie made a career of overcome adversity like no other, he gets rocked but good luck putting that man out, he has a superb recovery and this is truly a key to this fight because if Conor can`t put him out he is in a world of trouble!

-If Eddie can take Conor`s power and grows confidence on that while Conor starts slowing down, he can get comfortable enough to start apply other type of pressure on Conor, a pressure that Nate also presented to him when he sensed him getting tired but in this case Eddie brings it like no other, Dan Hardy called it the Alvaranche.

-I highly doubt that Conor can overcome that, it`s a different kind of power, agression and pressure that he will be dealing with.

-This?

-Is baby stuff compared to this...The moment he sensed Cerrone felt his power...

-Good luck recovering when he hurts you...

-With this being said, what is the path for Conor McGregor ?

-Although Eddie is a monster, he certainly has his flaws were Conor can capitalize. Conor`s style is a very offensive pressuring style where he leads, masterfully controls the space and slowly works you and eats you alive with his movement, precision, angles and power.

-After the well known left hand his biggest weapon is his movement , when he came at barely 170 pounds in both the Diaz fights he lost that, his body was stuffed with too much muscle which completely took out his movement, is light footwork that he so beautifully used at 145, that`s why there was so many exchanges in the pocket with Diaz, he couldn`t go anywhere. It`s the big reason why i think he would beat Diaz more decisively at 155 (and if he passes Eddie that`s the fight that it`s happening).

- So in this fight he will regain his movement and light footwork were he can manipulate the space and enter that "In & Out" zone that he dominates so well which is a major tool against a guy who strikes like Eddie.

-Eddie moves in a very typical way were he lunges forward, with no head movement whatsoever and swings wildly. Now that`s music for Conor`s ears.


-Melendez recognize it and was timming it well, Eddie lunges forward like that in 2 ocasions and eats a left hand and a stepping in right elbow from Gilbert.

-Here he eats a left and a right hand from Pettis but he doesn`t have the In & Out control of the space or the power like Conor does.

- Eddie also shows no head movement at all in this exchanges which Conor can easily find his chin with his precision and timming.

- He also overcomites with his flurrys and and his punches come in low from the hips which gets him exposed if timed well. which gives a opening to a counter striker like Conor to capitalize on and again...find his chin.

-A way to counter Eddie`s presure is actually front kicks, there is the threat of the takedown but if Conor can antecipate Eddie`s steps with that long reach advantage he can have sucess like he had against Brimage when he was putting a lot of pressure on him, i would show you a gif but this only let`s me show 20 images lol



-Also very underrated aspect of Conor`s game is the way he works his opponents bodys. A lot of people attributed Chad Mendes`s gassing with the fact that he took the fight on short notice and altough obviously that played a roll it wasn`t everything because that fight was a brilliant display of how Conor dismantled Chad Mendes body with all kinds of kicks and punches.


-Impose his offensive pressure, get him against the fence and from there, spinning back kick followed by 2 fron kicks to the body.

- Vicious right hand to the body has Chad is moving in that direction

-It also a very underrated aspect that people didn`t talk in the Nate fight

-And then he tricks you...Fakes going into the body and comes up with that left hand over the top, boom knocked down.

-And again like we talked about the Diaz fights, he didn`t have this kind of movement, angles or balance, at 145\155 he is so light on his feet and controls the space so well, look at this:



-He finds you from ANYWHERE...

-So in conclusion my prediction:

altough i can see Eddie taking this and he has very decent chances i just think Conor at 155 is a different animal, i believe we will see the best Conor ever because this is THE weight class for him and i think he will find Eddie`s chin.

Everyone likes to talk about how Eddie can recover when getting rocked but the main question here is: Did he ever fought someone with Conor`s power?? Chandler hits hard and he submited him following that too, but i just don`t think he can overcome that kind of power and precision so i`m taking Conor by first round KO and i think he will get the job done in like a minute or two.


Thank you for speding some time reading this and if you like it i did other breakdowns if you like to read:

Dos Anjos vs Tony Ferguson
http://origin.forums.sherdog.com/threads/rafael-dos-anjos-vs-tony-ferguson-breakdown.3381529/


Woodley vs Stephen Thompson

http://origin.forums.sherdog.com/th...thompson-my-breakdown-and-prediction.3375831/


Breakdown on Stephen Thompson`s style

http://origin.forums.sherdog.com/th...erson-then-stephen-thompson-happened.3365075/

Thanks for your breakdown TS . Very good . I'm cheering for Eddie but I hope the fight be a long beat down for Conor .

That the best man wins .

Catch you on Sunday

 

[Deleted member 514671]

Yeah because i didn`t even talk about Chandler in my breakdown or anything. And i bet if my predictions was in Eddie`s favor you wouldn`t say that, gotta love the haters around here.



Yeah, i would be really smart to copy paste a breakdown who everyone can see on UFC channel and i bet everyone here actually saw it. Please explain here i copy him word for word, thank you.

I enjoyed your analysis. I'm not going accuse you of stealing it, but there is a real easy way to copy someone without using their words. Paraphasing allows people do that. It is pretty much 90% of college education.

 

[SilverHorizon]

He's only been watching mma the last year and a half, he has no idea who those guys are.

I agree with DS7 100 percent. Conor hits harder than all three in addition to being far faster and having better precision.

 

[BC]

@DS7 good shit son, well broken down and I agree 100%

 

[BryanTheFighter]

Can alvarez do this to Conor?

 

[RonnyB]

Brown belt + 2016 join date = Conor wins

Conor has no chance

 

[DS7]

I enjoyed your analysis. I'm not going accuse you of stealing it, but there is a real easy way to copy someone without using their words. Paraphasing allows people do that. It is pretty much 90% of college education.

I will take that you think i steal this from a phenomenal analyst like Dan Hardy as a compliment lol

Except 1 or 2, even the damn gifs i had to make myself.

Brown belt + 2016 join date = Conor wins

Conor has no chance

I love this premise of judging people based on their account, like it makes you some kind of intelectual around here or something.

Saying that "Conor has no chance" already should tell me what i need to know about you.

 

[DS7]

Post Fight thoughts:

Well, this went exacly like i expected. Like i said on that Breakdown Eddie`s head movement is non existent and Conor`s movement, timming, speed and precision would be too much. Also the question was could Eddie recover from those shots and i suspected that no and i actually thought he would be done after the first one. People were saying that fucking Kawajiri hits harden than Conor is behind laughable.

-One thing that i finded very surprise was how Conor was bigger than Eddie, the size difference was very noticeble. Another factor to what Conor is as a figher today is the Nate loss. That did wonders for him and from that Conor has the very intelligent fighter he is made the right adjustements and became a much better fighter. He now is much more calm, collected and knows how to apply his offensive pressure. Last night everything came together and it was a masterpiece to watch, one of the best performances in titlefights ever and he made history.

Congrats to Conor.

 

[Conor McGrammar]

Brown belt + 2016 join date = Conor wins

Conor has no chance

Oh really?