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PBP DWCS 2024 Week 5 PBP Discussion: Tue Sept. 10 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT.

How Many Contracts Will be Handed Out?


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Jackonfire

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Date/Time: Tuesday 09.10.2024 at 08:00 PM ET
U.S. Broadcast:
ESPN+
Venue: UFC Apex
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
MMA Bouts: 5


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DWCS 2024: Week 5
205: Navajo Sterling (4-0) vs. Phillip Latu (6-1)
155: Kody Steele (6-0) vs. Quemuel Ottoni (12-3)
185: Yousri Belgaroui (7-3) vs. Taiga Iwasaki (9-1)
135: Otari Tanzilov (9-0) vs. Josias Musasa (7-0)
125: Corinne Laframboise (8-4) vs. Nicolle Caliari (7-2)




Contender Series Weigh-in Results:

Navajo Sterling (206) vs. Phillip Latu (206)
Kody Steele (155.5) vs. Quemuel Ottoni (154)
Yousri Belgaroui (186) vs. Taiga Iwasaki (185)
Otari Tanzilov (134.5) vs. Josias Musasa (135.5)
Corinne Laframboise (126) vs. Nicolle Caliari (124.6)




Betting Odds
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Sportsbook Contender Series 2024: Week 5




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Okay, so, quick tape study again since this has been working pretty well. Bummed that last time was Week 3, where I foresaw Piccininni struggling badly with Duffy’s pace, and figured Aswell would beat Grad – but the judges figured it was Screw Siver! Day.

Navajo Stirling vs Phillip Latu

CITY KICKBOXING ALERT! Navajo Stirling is a 6’4 LHW, a weight class where that team seems to be very good at getting success, and he has a striking background despite it not being especially storied like some of those guys (he’s won titles, but not been to GLORY or similar, stayed in Aus). Navajo is very comfortable styling on lesser fighters, pretty aggressive, likes to march forward, and looks like he could be a big problem – but the tape is limited in terms of MMA.

Phillip Latu ALSO has a kickboxing background, and despite sounding and looking like he’d be another guy out of City Kickboxing… he ain’t, he’s American and fights out of Elevation lol – dude is 6’3, but a bit on the chubbier side, and he is just slower. That said, he’s a strong guy and a bit of a unit, I just don’t like the idea of being his torso in this fight – that’s an obvious target, and I have a feeling we’re gonna see a few kicks there, maybe even a spinning back kick (Hail Siver!)

What I like about Latu is that he CAN throw flashy shit, but it’s his hands that are best. He punches hard and is accurate. What I most dislike about Latu is the speed. Sure, he has power and will walk forward, I just don’t know if that will be enough here against what looks to be a guy that is bigger, faster, more athletic, and possibly slightly better at everything Latu is good at. If he was more aggressive at getting inside, I’d probably pick him, but he’s not, so I won’t.

RESULT: Navajo Stirling by R3 TKO

Kody Steele vs Quemuel Ottoni

Ottoni had 3 chances to fight in PFL and never did. He entered an LFA Grand Prix and only made it to 1 fight. I don’t know why the UFC are chasing this guy, to be honest, that’s pretty appalling. OH WAIT! He’s the guy that beat Alex Pereira in his debut nearly 10 years ago… *eye roll*

Quemuel on the feet has some chops going forward but is still hittable (though his toughness makes up for that). Good leg kicks, teep kicks, and his movement against Jose Diaz was pretty good as was his takedown defence. He’s pretty solid, and I can see why that was a problem for Baby Pereira so many years ago.

The reason Steele has a lot of hype is likely because he’s a high level BJJ guy, lots of experience, and it looks really good on his resumé. The fact Steele isn’t super motivated to get takedowns, though, is a bit of a concern – until you see he actually has power in his hands and decent striking, but I’m not super convinced about that. I like the guy, he looks like a strong athlete, he’s fought a decent level of competition, and at a higher weight class, where he did ragdoll guys at times – but he’s kinda slow.

I think Ottoni probably is better on the feet, still, and Kody could be making a mistake if he’s wanting to showcase his well-rounded skillset. I think that’s a risk, mix it up, sure, but probably don’t stand in front of Ottoni and think you’re gonna get the knock out… I dunno, Steele has me a bit worried.

I can see Ottoni getting the better of things on the feet and doing enough to keep away from Steele’s ground game for the most part. I absolutely hate Ottoni for his inactivity and want to punish him for it, but I can see him winning here. For what it’s worth, Steele just doesn’t look like the BJJ wizard you’d think he might, and he doesn’t seem to hold on to guys very well. The pick is Ottoni for being a better striker and because Steele needs to prove to me he really does have good, not just powerful, striking.

On paper I’d have picked Steele, so it’s a weird one.

RESULT: Quemuel Ottoni by Decision

Yousri Belgaroui vs Taiga Iwasaki

Yousri isn’t very good, I’m sorry guys. This guy had to have two cracks at Ahmed Sami of Egypt, who is mediocre at best, really nothing special at international level. A workaday middleweight, like almost everyone he’s fought so far outside DWCS when Tulio beat him in a poor fight. Even in fights you sort of expect Belgaroui to style on guys, he’s slow and his finishing rate is kinda poor for a 6’5 middleweight with such range. Even when he’s got guys backed up to the fence, he isn’t putting them out. He can do kickboxing things, for sure, as you’d expect from a GLORY guy, but I’m just not feeling his overall game. I don’t see a future for him in the UFC given he’s 32, though he has shown some improvements and isn’t as prone to takedowns, so who knows.

Taiga Iwasaki, somehow, has fought an even worse level of competition, outside of Rafael Lovato Jr who tapped him in 2022. Taiga has only fought once since then, beating Eun Soo Kim who is like 40. Iwasaki looked hittable against Eun Su Kim with a slow Muay Thai stance which could be DISASTROUS here, but it took him like 30 seconds to start tying Kim up. This could be a problem too, as Belgaroui is tall, has improved his TDD a little, and is a much different kind of athlete. That said, it’s clear how this is gonna go. Belgaroui just isn’t likely to put Taiga out particularly quickly – he could, but it’s not really something I’m envisioning – so I think we’re gonna go clinch, break, clinch, break, etc in a boring affair. Iwasaki might struggle for takedowns, but if he gets one a round, that will be pretty good for him. He might wear on Belgaroui and tire him out and probably win R3 if everything goes that way.

Hopefully we get a meme finish or a head kick KO or something, but I’m not optimistic. I will go Belgaroui though. Confidence for a fun fight is in the toilet. Yousri probably needs to back Iwasaki up to the cage and style on him or land a knee or something, I just don’t really see it happening.

RESULT: Yousri Belgaroui by Decision

Otar Tanzilov vs Josias Musasa

Tanzilov is pretty big, first impression, as a 5’11 bantamweight. Not the best takedown defence, but good at getting up, good body kicks and knees, looks a very well-conditioned fighter, light and loose on the feet. He kinda broke this guy called Abdullaev last time out, that guy faded out and lost. I guess Tanzilov might look at Musasa and look for a takedown, but usually he’s the one getting taken down.

Note that Tanzilov isn’t very good at chasing guys down, I’m not quite sure I’d call him a counter striker, but he’s kinda slow in terms of movement, FAST in terms of digging kicks to the ribs. Operates at kicking range, which means if someone is backpedalling, he has a huge gap to cover lol – he struggled to land anything on Rafael Ribeiro Soares for this reason before randomly killing him with a jumping switch kick that was awesome!

Josias Musasa, this guy looks aggressive and sloppy, his GnP he landed on some Egyptian can was nothing short of windmill swings. I notice he’s wrecking guys in Africa, but not the big promotions like EFC in South Africa, smaller ones I’ve never really heard of. Gotta be honest I’m not hugely impressed with the tape I’ve seen, though there’s no denying this guy is a powerful athlete and very aggressive.

Tanzilov is not going to have to chase this guy down, Musasa is probably come straight at him, swinging and/or grabbing a takedown, whatever happens – I doubt he cares. That might mean Musasa actually does okay in the early stages, but I just don’t think he overwhelms Tanzilov like he’s overwhelmed others with his crazy offence. He could always catch Tanzilov clean, but I see Tanzilov getting up a couple of times, digging kicks to the ribs and stopping Musasa. This is gonna be technique vs unbridled aggression.

RESULT: Otar Tanzilov by R1 TKO

Corinne Laframboise vs Nicolle Caliari

Okay so searching “Corinne Laframboise injury” because she withdrew from DWCS last year and hasn’t fought since turned up… a PREGNANCY! Lol! Kind of injury? Turns out she also had a sprained ankle and an ear injury, too, at some stage. Anyway…

That now means it’s 2.5 years since 35 year old Laframboise has fought, and since she went 4-1 in UAE Warriors. Her record in Canada was much less impressive where she was losing to mediocre opposition including current BKFC fighter Jade Masson-Wong who really isn’t very good, but her last two defeats came to current UFC fighters Jamey-Lyn Horth and Manon Fiorot – both 3rd round finishes.

Laframboise is an okay Jiu Jitsu type with okay boxing and okay takedowns. She starts hot, but that doesn’t last long. She even started hot against Fiorot and just started hammering her a bit like a that Takayama-Frye fight lol. Fiorot just used all her physical skills to stop Laframboise’s aggression and pressure. In another fight she had to escape a Malin Hermansson R1 standing RNC by slamming herself (and her opponent) back first into the mat. Fun, but not overly impressive. She seems shorter than her 5’5 she’s claiming, somehow. She has displayed good conditioning in her UAE Warriors run and that helped her a lot, especially given the pressure I just mentioned. She will chain submissions when she’s on top, where she’s definitely better. She’s nothing special from her back but will at least be active. The time out and pregnancy is presumed to impact her somewhat. [This is WAY too much about this fighter, sorry]

Caliari fought in Invicta once, losing to Kay Hansen before Kay’s UFC run – that was back in 2019. She’s only fought 3 times in MMA since then. Caliari has fought in Muay Thai, too, and you can see that in her striking stance. Expect kicks that don’t seem particularly effective. Kay Hansen swamped Caliari pretty easily in R1 of their fight, and I don’t like how that looked. She did show toughness and fought through some tough situations like face cranks and whatever before eventually getting up and still looking pretty fresh. She then, for some reason, took Hansen down, I guess just to show she could. Ultimately, Caliari was just not as good as Hansen on the ground, and Hansen eventually finished.

I think that’s kinda how this will look. Caliari is game, but her kicking game won’t be much use if Laframboise is still closing the distance like she used to. Laframboise will shortly look for a takedown, probably get it, maybe lose control of Caliari a couple of times, before finishing with a submission in R2 or R3. Seems a fairly straightforward call. NOTE: they both tapped Carolina Jimenez, but Laframboise did it in R1, Caliari did it in R2. Kinda use that as the Tale of the Tape, Caliari plays a lot of ground game when people aren’t enjoying getting kicked, she doesn’t seem capable of stopping it, and she even engages in it – despite not being particularly good at it. Wildcards, obviously, are Corinne’s age and time on the shelf, if she’s a lot slower, she could get lit up on the feet, but absolutely nothing suggests Caliari has really done anything too impressive to close the initial gap in quality.

RESULT: Laframboise by Sub R2.

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They got people here with 4 fights, 6 fights, 8-4 records. Come on man.
 
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