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Dustin Poirier vs. Justin Gaethje Analysis ***Long Read***

Frankie Baby!

Frankie Baby!

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(Tell me if I did good with the analysis)

This is an amazing fight, will most likely be 'Fight of the Year'. Both guys are very talented, very tough, and motivated. Both guys coming off great fights.

So you got Dustin Poirier, he's a very good Striker, with good Grappling that you saw in the Anthony Pettis fight. He was really able to pressure, and wear out Anthony, and overall get a dominate win over the former Lightweight Champion. Whenever Dustin doesn't get into brawls, or at least brawls he can stay in, he can look very good. His main problem tho is his suspect chin. He's been KO'd, and wobbled a few good times. He also has a little bit of a weakness to leg kicks, that was shown in the Jim Miller fight.


And then you got Justin Gaethje, a very brawling heavy fighter, who tires his opponents out by brawling. His striking I would say is stiff, but very effective. He has NASTY leg kicks, that are right up there with Jose Aldo, and Edson Barboza. His chin, and heart are incredible. His Grappling is very underrated, he's a very good wrestler he was a two-time Arizona state champion as a wrestler at Safford High School, and a NCAA Division I All-American wrestler during his time at the University of Northern Colorado. He doesn't really like to use his wrestling offensively, but more as a defense to keep it standing. His weaknesses are that he takes too much damage in his fights, and he can get gassed a little early when brawling. (He did say after the Alvarez fight tho that he's gonna fight different a little)

My prediction is Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO in the 2nd Round (Right Hook). I think it'll inevitably turn into a brawl, I don't think Dustin will be able to take Justin down, and I don't think Dustin's chin will hold up to Gaethje's power. I think the leg kicks will play a big part of the fight, I think Justin will use then to set up a punch that'll put Dustin out. I wouldn't be surprised tho if Dustin starches him with something either.
 
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basically think Gaethe is going to win
 
I agree. Gaethje will break Dustin.
 
ArmenianAssasin said:
If Poreir fights smart he can take it

his ground game and wrestling is extremely underrated and he has a lot more tools on the feet
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100%, I don't really like Dustin, but I'm not gonna ignore his skill. I think Justin's heart, and will, will win him the fight tho.
 
Frankie Baby! said:
(Tell me if I did good with the analysis)

This is an amazing fight, will most likely be 'Fight of the Year'. Both guys are very talented, very tough, and motivated. Both guys coming off great fights.

So you got Dustin Poirier, he's a very good Striker, with good Grappling that you saw in the Anthony Pettis fight. He was really able to pressure, and wear out Anthony, and overall get a dominate win over the former Lightweight Champion. Whenever Dustin doesn't get into brawls, or at least brawls he can stay in, he can look very good. His main problem tho is his suspect chin. He's been KO'd, and wobbled a few good times. He also has a little bit of a weakness to leg kicks, that was shown in the Jim Miller fight.


And then you got Justin Gaethje, a very brawling heavy fighter, who tires his opponents out by brawling. His striking I would say is stiff, but very effective. He has NASTY leg kicks, that are right up there with Jose Aldo, and Edson Barboza. His chin, and heart are incredible. His Grappling is very underrated, he's a very good wrestler he was a two-time Arizona state champion as a wrestler at Safford High School, and a NCAA Division I All-American wrestler during his time at the University of Northern Colorado. He doesn't really like to use his wrestling offensively, but more as a defense to keep it standing. His weaknesses are that he takes too much damage in his fights, and he can get gassed a little early when brawling. (He did say after the Alvarez fight tho that he's gonna fight different a little)

My prediction is Justin Gaethje by KO/TKO in the 2nd Round (Right Hook). I think it'll inevitably turn into a brawl, I don't think Dustin will be able to take Justin down, and I don't think Dustin's chin will hold up to Gaethje's power. I think the leg kicks will play a big part of the fight, I think Justin will use then to set up a punch that'll put Dustin out. I wouldn't be surprised tho if Dustin starches him with something either.
Click to expand...

Wasn't that long honestly.

Not a horrible breakdown at all.

A few things:

Not sure how much you saw of Justin in WSOF, but he can be taken down. He's really good at getting back to his feet though. That said, Dustin is a better grappler than the guys who took him down before he entered the UFC. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Dustin implement a grappling-heavy gameplan.

Justin really doesn't have monster one-shot KO power. He wins a lot of fights by TKO through attrition. It's a cumulative thing where the damage adds up during the brawl and eventually the other guy wilts (in the case of the Eddie fight, Justin wilted).

Dustin's chin issues might be a bit overblown. MJ starched him for sure, as did Conor at FW. Korean Zombie wobbled him before subbing him a few years back. Otherwise, he really has eaten punches fairly well. I'm not saying he has a great chin by any stretch, but it may not be as bad as some are making it out to be.

Finally, Dustin is far more accurate with his combos than Justin is, and better at slipping punches too (honestly, like you sort of alluded to, I'm not sure Justin even cares about slipping punches). Justin has shown himself to be incredibly durable for sure, but all those wars add up. I'm not saying this is the fight where his chin completely fails him, but it's possible. You can't fight the way he does for too long before it catches up to you.

I think Dustin wins by KO/TKO. I think he'll mix in some TD's early to keep Justin guessing, and when Justin tires a bit Dustin will find his chin with a big flurry and put him away. Rd 3 is my prediction.

BUT...I wouldn't be shocked at all if Justin lures Dustin into a brawl early and finds a TKO. Definitely could happen.
 
mkess101 said:
Wasn't that long honestly.

Not a horrible breakdown at all.

A few things:

Not sure how much you saw of Justin in WSOF, but he can be taken down. He's really good at getting back to his feet though. That said, Dustin is a better grappler than the guys who took him down before he entered the UFC. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Dustin implement a grappling-heavy gameplan.

Justin really doesn't have monster one-shot KO power. He wins a lot of fights by TKO through attrition. It's a cumulative thing where the damage adds up during the brawl and eventually the other guy wilts (in the case of the Eddie fight, Justin wilted).

Dustin's chin issues might be a bit overblown. MJ starched him for sure, as did Conor at FW. Korean Zombie wobbled him before subbing him a few years back. Otherwise, he really has eaten punches fairly well. I'm not saying he has a great chin by any stretch, but it may not be as bad as some are making it out to be.

Finally, Dustin is far more accurate with his combos than Justin is, and better at slipping punches too (honestly, like you sort of alluded to, I'm not sure Justin even cares about slipping punches). Justin has shown himself to be incredibly durable for sure, but all those wars add up. I'm not saying this is the fight where his chin completely fails him, but it's possible. You can't fight the way he does for too long before it catches up to you.

I think Dustin wins by KO/TKO. I think he'll mix in some TD's early to keep Justin guessing, and when Justin tires a bit Dustin will find his chin with a big flurry and put him away. Rd 3 is my prediction.

BUT...I wouldn't be shocked at all if Justin lures Dustin into a brawl early and finds a TKO. Definitely could happen.
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It's really a dice roll, but I'm a bit biased with Gaethje.
 
Peahead even on his best day can't fuck with a real savage like JG.

Peahead is getting bloodied and starched

JG has better wresting. Better kicks. Better chin. Better warrior kill or be killed spirit.

Peahead is faster and better cardio. Won't be enough
 
geathje will either break dustin or dustin will finish gaethje if eddie took justins chin away
 
mkess101 said:
Wasn't that long honestly.

Not a horrible breakdown at all.

A few things:

Not sure how much you saw of Justin in WSOF, but he can be taken down. He's really good at getting back to his feet though. That said, Dustin is a better grappler than the guys who took him down before he entered the UFC. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Dustin implement a grappling-heavy gameplan.

Justin really doesn't have monster one-shot KO power. He wins a lot of fights by TKO through attrition. It's a cumulative thing where the damage adds up during the brawl and eventually the other guy wilts (in the case of the Eddie fight, Justin wilted).

Dustin's chin issues might be a bit overblown. MJ starched him for sure, as did Conor at FW. Korean Zombie wobbled him before subbing him a few years back. Otherwise, he really has eaten punches fairly well. I'm not saying he has a great chin by any stretch, but it may not be as bad as some are making it out to be.

Finally, Dustin is far more accurate with his combos than Justin is, and better at slipping punches too (honestly, like you sort of alluded to, I'm not sure Justin even cares about slipping punches). Justin has shown himself to be incredibly durable for sure, but all those wars add up. I'm not saying this is the fight where his chin completely fails him, but it's possible. You can't fight the way he does for too long before it catches up to you.

I think Dustin wins by KO/TKO. I think he'll mix in some TD's early to keep Justin guessing, and when Justin tires a bit Dustin will find his chin with a big flurry and put him away. Rd 3 is my prediction.

BUT...I wouldn't be shocked at all if Justin lures Dustin into a brawl early and finds a TKO. Definitely could happen.
Click to expand...
Akira Corassani, who only had 1 tko win in his entire career, had Dustin absolutely reeling with strikes. Justin is not exactly proven and his style is wild, but it is very hard to trust Dustin’s chin to hold up. Great fight; tough to call a winner
 
Frankie Baby! said:
Basically
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if justin still got a chin i expect him to win. he can just take so much damage and poirer has been ko'd multiple times,not sure he can keep up like eddie was able to with justin. and i expect justin to hammer away with the leg kicks much more
 
FreddieRoachsVoice said:
Akira Corassani, who only had 1 tko win in his entire career, had Dustin absolutely reeling with strikes. Justin is not exactly proven and his style is wild, but it is very hard to trust Dustin’s chin to hold up. Great fight; tough to call a winner
Click to expand...

True. But Duffy hit Dustin fairly clean a few times and Dustin ate them easily.

Again, not saying he's got a granite chin. Just that the issues **might** be overblown.
 
Gambit MMA said:
if justin still got a chin i expect him to win. he can just take so much damage and poirer has been ko'd multiple times,not sure he can keep up like eddie was able to with justin. and i expect justin to hammer away with the leg kicks much more
Click to expand...
I could 100% see this happening
 
Frankie Baby! said:
I could 100% see this happening
Click to expand...
maybe he goes to the body like eddie did. if justin didnt fix that, poirer gonna expose that again. might even see poirer test justins takedown defense although im confident justin can stuff poirers takedown. poirers takedown is probably a B level to be honest. its good but not great
 
Gambit MMA said:
maybe he goes to the body like eddie did. if justin didnt fix that, poirer gonna expose that again. might even see poirer test justins takedown defense although im confident justin can stuff poirers takedown. poirers takedown is probably a B level to be honest. its good but not great
Click to expand...

Dustin's takedowns are much better once he's landed some strikes. Justin is extremely hittable. If Dustin can land a few good shots early, that's when the odds of success with a level change go dramatically up.

We'll see if Dustin tries to utilize that strategy, and if he does how well he times his level changes.
 
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