Does Charles have to finish Dustin to win?

[Paladin]

If Oliveira beats Doostin it will be by a finish. Oliveira doesn’t have the grit and heart to go for 25 minutes against a dog like Doostin and end on top. His best bet is to take him down and get a sub.

You guys keep saying Charles doesn’t have the grit but the dude is at over 90% finish and three decisions wins.

Charles has grit, has shown it time and again, but more importantly, Charles is a Finisher through and through.

Being finished or tapping to injury doesn’t really mean he is not durable, particularly now at 155.

name someone who can realistically take the elbows that Mr Felder was landing and not get finished.

 

[JustOnce]

I think Dustin's shift combo's are gonna be a big issue for Oliveira.
Mainly due to him not utilizing a lot of head movement and keeping his head on the center line.

I'm fairly sure if power and chin is equal, Oliveira can outstrike Poirier. Poirier is very good though, but I just don't think Oli is as bad as some people make him out to be.

 

[Doughie99]

Haven't seen a lot of Charles. And looking to bet some money here.

Dustin has stood in front of great strikers like Gaethje, Conor, Alvarez and come out on top.

My question is could Charles grapple fuck Dustin for five rounds to a decision? Or does he need a sub

In my view the most probable outcomes in no particular order are (no surprise here really....) :
- Poirier by TKO
- Oliveira by sub
- Poirier by UD.

I don't really see this fight going the distance.
Of Poirier's last 8 fghts, just 2 went to decision (25%).
Of Oliveira's last 8 fights, just 1 went to decision (12.5%)

Hope it's a great fight, no controversies or anything weird, and may the best man win.

 

[Lights Out 101]

Everyone thought Gaethje/Chandler wouldn’t go the distance either.

Oliveira by decision.

 

[wolfss]

Yes absolutely Charles is not getting his hand raised without a finish.

But what the "experts" get wrong is that Oliveira has roughly the same probability of knocking Dustin out as he does subbing him.

High probability or low?

 

[wolfss]

I’m gonna go with oli!!!

 

[Dave Poodle]

Think a submission is more likely than a decision for Charles. Very 50/50 on this fight though and could almost see any result happening, Poirier by sub is the only one I see as being highly unlikely.

Interestingly, just saw that Olivera has never seen the championship rounds. All 3 5 rounders he's been booked in have been finished by the 3rd round.

 

[JKS]

Haven't seen a lot of Charles. And looking to bet some money here.

Dustin has stood in front of great strikers like Gaethje, Conor, Alvarez and come out on top.

My question is could Charles grapple fuck Dustin for five rounds to a decision? Or does he need a sub

He completely dominated Tony on the ground for 3 rounds with control and sub attempts. I highly doubt Dustin will offer more of a challenge on the ground. So yes, he could grapple him for the whole fight.

 

[Sickbro69420]

I picked him to beat Chandler and I think he's going to get it done with Dustin.

 

[EnthusiastCultivator]

It’s a fist fight on a Saturday night in Clark County, NV, and all you experts don’t know anything what’s gonna happen

 

[Daelh]

If Oliveira beats Doostin it will be by a finish. Oliveira doesn’t have the grit and heart to go for 25 minutes against a dog like Doostin and end on top. His best bet is to take him down and get a sub.

Dustin gave up after one round against Khabib. What make you think he wouldn't give up against Oliveira too if Oliveira dominated him the same way on the ground. Dustin's grit is slightly overrated, sure he has a great chin and cardio standing, but that all goes away when someone starts riding your back. And Charles showed against Tony he has far superior wrestling to Dustin.

 

[RageQuitLord]

I honestly don't even know these guys are both badass as hell. I gotta root for Dustin cause this is USA all day baby but I am so nervous for him lol. I've been watching Oliviera fights and god damn he just is a funky scramble wizard and his striking has become so precise and hard hitting. I feel like Dustin can't use clinch work or grappling to pressure or stall to recover at all with Charles and the problem is in even in a straight stand up war Charles is not to be taken lightly. So that means a lot of Dustins tool set for mixing it up is taken away from him. On the other hand if he can avoid getting knocked out or subbed he has a way of just breaking guys down.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

High probability or low?

Personally, I would favor Oliveira to win 55% of the time and Poirier 45% of the time. With the most likely fight outcome being an Oliveira KO and the least likely outcome being an Oliveira decision victory.

Oliveira KO: 30%
Poirier KO: 25%
Oliveira Sub: 20%
Poirier Sub: 10%
Poirier Dec: 10%
Oliveira Dec: 5%

While I favor Oliveira to win I still believe Dustins approach will ultimately determine the outcome. The narrative that Oliveira responds poorly to pressure or adversity is not in line with the fighter Oliveira is in 2021. The reality is three of Oliveiras past five victories have been KO/TKOs and in every single one of them it was a single punch that hurt his opponents. Oliveira is not the fighter you can to take one to give one against in the first or second round.

Dustin is going to be at a reach disadvantage similar to the one he was at against Dan Hooker. He is going to have to be very careful in the first two rounds with how he closes distance and the range he chooses to fight at.

Dustin is a very good defensive and offensive grappler so Oliveira submitting him is going to require a scenario where Dustin puts himself in harms way during a submission attempt of his own which doesn't succeed. Dustin likes too jump for guillotines which definitely would put him in imminent danger of being submitted if he doesn't get it. Choosing to follow Oliveira to the ground when you hurt him is another poor decision that could get Dustin quickly caught in an armbar; Oliveira is most dangerous off his back.

If the fight goes past the second round Oliveiras chance of winning is going to be very low.

 

[The_Renaissance]

Yes. Charles is a finisher, not a strategist. If it goes beyond 3 rounds, Poirier is gonna batter the fuck out of him standing. Personally, I think Poirier TKO's him within 3 rounds, but it's an awesome fight and I can't wait to see it.

 

[SerbBerserk]

I will say dropping Chandler the way he did takes serious power, I wouldnt be suprised if Oliveria hurts Poirier but Poirier is a dog who always comes to fight, I dont expect an easy fight either way.

 

[CroCopsLHK]

No. He could win by decision or even dq

 

[HI SCOTT NEWMAN]

Yes and early too within 2 rounds, he is gonna wilt and fall apart if it gets intense I feel.

 

[C0NCH3TO]

Dustin gave up after one round against Khabib. What make you think he wouldn't give up against Oliveira too if Oliveira dominated him the same way on the ground. Dustin's grit is slightly overrated, sure he has a great chin and cardio standing, but that all goes away when someone starts riding your back. And Charles showed against Tony he has far superior wrestling to Dustin.

Lmao. Oliveira is not Khabib, bud. Not even close. Justin is a dog as well and Khabib trashed him quickly. I hespek Charles, he has evolved massively and the guy is a great human being. But lets not forget that he has lost almost 10 times. Also, the Tony he beat ( his biggest win thus far) was a shot, worn out version who got trashed by Justin not long ago.

His lw streak is impressive but it is a bit overrated as well. Tony and Chandler are NOT on Khabib/ Justin/ Dustin lvl.

 

[Anaconda99]

Haven't seen a lot of Charles. And looking to bet some money here.

Dustin has stood in front of great strikers like Gaethje, Conor, Alvarez and come out on top.

My question is could Charles grapple fuck Dustin for five rounds to a decision? Or does he need a sub

How did you not see a lot of Charles. You joined 2014 and hes been in the UFC since 2010. Just curious.

Charles is not someone who grapplefucks and not one to think about rounds. He is always trying to finish not wreckless but for sure not a point fighter. He could sub Dustin if Dustin makes a mistake and Charles will take risks. I think people are underrating how much he improved in the stand up he could finish him on the feet but it wont be easy. On paper this is a 50 50 fight. Both are complete fighters but Dustin is better at some things and Charles at other things. I put money on Olives but im also rooting for him so theres probably some bias there.

 

[Daelh]

Lmao. Oliveira is not Khabib, bud. Not even close. Justin is a dog as well and Khabib trashed him quickly. I hespek Charles, he has evolved massively and the guy is a great human being. But lets not forget that he has lost almost 10 times. Also, the Tony he beat ( his biggest win thus far) was a shot, worn out version who got trashed by Justin not long ago.

His lw streak is impressive but it is a bit overrated as well. Tony and Chandler are NOT on Khabib/ Justin/ Dustin lvl.

Lol at having Poirier on Khabibs level. I would personally have it

Khabib

Dustin, Charles, Islam

Gaethje, Fiziev

The rest.