Does Alexa Grasso have literally any chance at all?

VOTE for Dreyga2000 said:
People have this bad habit of underestimating lesser known WMMA fighters. And then they get shocked whenever they do well against a name

No one thought Carla would beat Rose even though she had done it before

No one thought Taila would make it 5 rounds against Valentina but she arguably won the fight

Everyone was convinced Peña was gonna get finished brutally Nunes

Many people thought Erin was gonna get killed by Andrade

The lesson to learn from all these fights is that too WMMA fighters are human and loose on any given night. And typically the challengers tend to over perform relative to expectations
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It's MMA so anything can happen but those examples aren't really analogous. Shev has shown a weakness to strong and technical grapplers, which were not among any of her past competition at the top level prior to Maia.

Rose is a headcase, no one really won that fight. Nunes-Pena was a real upset for sure. Andrade was clocking in for a check.

Alexa COULD beat Valentina because they're both human beings with physical limitations. But she absolutely does not have the skillset to beat her based on anything we've seen before.
 
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JoeRowe said:
If she wins it'll probably look something like BJ/Frankie 1. Val isn't the highest volume striker so if Grasso can scramble up to her feet when taken down she could make it a close competitive fight at range & in the pocket. She has nice feet & is very quick, solid combination punching including body work. She also has a very quick lead-leg highkick ala Rose v Zhang 1. Not that Val won't see it coming but you never know. Also Grasso has a really slick armbar from guard, reminds me of a young Pettis.

All in all its very unlikely but maybe Shevy has lost a step. It's possible that she peaked vs Andrade, who is terrible off her back & a great matchup for Shevy anyways. Odds seem fair but crazier things have happened.
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Good post.

Didn't really think Grasso had any chance at all but you make a good point here. A lot of Grasso's wins have been like that too. Get in, get out, and do it more than the opponent to sneak away with the win.

Would be boring as shit in most cases, but in a title shot against a dominant champ, the stakes are there to make it interesting if she can pull it off.p
 
Probably slim, but Valentina's about the age people in WMMA and small divisions start slowing down, and she didn't look that great in her last fight almost a year ago.
 
She has a great chance...

...with me ;)
 
Kumason said:
In Shev's last fight she closed as a -800 favorite and many thought she lost that fight. Valentina opened up as a -550 in this fight. Literally almost lost her last fight, winning a split decision vs a girl who no one gave a chance. It's mma, I could never understand the ...does this person literally have any chance stuff, no offense, it's just such an absurd question.
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Grasso isn't gonna land those TDs and lay & pray on top of Shev....
 
Yes, in the same way Pena had a chance when Nunes had an off night. Its more a question of is Valentina still in her prime and firing on all cylinders at 34? She's not so young anymore, father time will catch up one of these days, so when she finally starts losing a step is when she'll lose, if she doesn't retire first.. Prime for Prime no I don't think any of these girls beat Valentina at 125
 
If GRASSO uses her cardio and weaponizes it to grind Valentina down she can definitely beat her. Easier said than done but if GRASSO plays her cards right...
 
All she needs to do is eek out 2 or 3 rounds and judges will give it to her... Not all that farfetched, they both have had several defensive/technical fights before
 
650lb Sumo said:
Taila Santos is way better than Alexa Grasso though.
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Yeah but this is hindsight bias

Hindsight bias is our tendency to look back at an event that we could not predict at the time and think the outcome was easily predictable. It is also called the 'knew-it-all-along' effect.

No one was thinking Taila Santos was gonna do that well going into the fight. They all thought she had no chance.

And this happens every WMMA title fight. We think the challenger has no chance and get surprised when they do well. We need to start adjusting our expectations and stop underestimating these challengers.

Kumason said:
I agree, but your opinion like everyone's probably changed on how good after she fought Shev
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Exactly
 
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Shevchenko trained for this fight in Japan. Nobody goes to Japan to train, for good reason. Might make a difference.
 
650lb Sumo said:
alexa-grasso-invicta-fc-18.jpg


I'm not a major follower of women's 125 but it seems like they are struggling to find Val serious challengers. If Alexa wins it would be like a Holly Holm / Ronda Rousey upset, maybe even more shocking. The only positives I can find for her are that she has never been stopped by strikes and she is 5 years younger at 29 while Bullet may be past her athletic peak.

But Val is just much better everywhere, both her striking and her grappling are streets ahead. Her qualifications and portfolio of work are incomparable. Alexa has never faced anyone on her level and I see no evidence that she will be competitive in this fight. If she takes Bullet the distance that would be like a moral victory for her. Am I sleeping on this fighter? Or is this really basically a mismatch and a spurious co main event?

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Lmao
 
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