Economy Disastrous January job report with a estimated 400,000 jobs lost

UFCUCF said:
All in all it was a strong labor report and unemployment remains historically low. The report even revised upward previous quarters' reports. Sorry that the demand for negative Biden economic news exceeds the supply. Would love to see your source that **ALL** of the jobs added were part time. You said all.

Even if true, "too many part time jobs" is a far cry of the gloom and doom the conservatives were predicting in this thread a year ago.
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Look at the chart in post 146.
 
James Eagle said:
It was all part time jobs, you know the ones people with full time jobs already took on, because of inflation
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This is how ridiculous hacks are getting. Job growth is bad now (and BTW, part-time jobs are tracked, and real wages have been rising--and that's probably bad because it means more automation is coming, though that will also increase wages...).
 
UFCUCF said:
Unemployment is at 3.7% now a year after this “disastrous “ jobs report. Looks like the conservatives wishing for a U.S. financial collapse have to wait a bit longer.
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Who was hoping for a economic collapse?

There are several indicators that have been useful for predicting these things. The main one being the yield curve. It's crazy how long it's been negative for, at least compared to the last 40 years worth of inversions. With the exception of one inversion we have seen various levels of recession immediately after the curve un-inverts. We're still toiling along and not there yet. It'll be interesting to see considering this is uncharted territory we're in. If the fed plays it's cards right we could theoretically be in for a soft landing and avoid a huge slowdown.

It's possible there will be a shrinking work force/job seekers and positive growth that unemployment will stay low. The tech sector is really the only place where employment is taking a hit and that's undoubtedly because companies are contracting after over hiring during COVID. The media loves pushing the doom and gloom shit making it sound like everyone is getting laid off but the tech sector only makes up around 17 percent of the workforce.

Time will tell, but I'm holding out for the 2/10 year treasuries to flip

But, I'm willing to bet the partisan hacks on either side don't care about these things.
 
TeTe said:
Who was hoping for a economic collapse?
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Republicans have been salivating over the possibility ever since Biden took office, and a lot of them convinced themselves we were already in a recession. Even now, the vast majority of them don't realize that the economy is extraordinarily strong.
TeTe said:
There are several indicators that have been useful for predicting these things. The main one being the yield curve. It's crazy how long it's been negative for, at least compared to the last 40 years worth of inversions. With the exception of one inversion we have seen various levels of recession immediately after the curve un-inverts. We're still toiling along and not there yet. It'll be interesting to see considering this is uncharted territory we're in. If the fed plays it's cards right we could theoretically be in for a soft landing and avoid a huge slowdown.
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Yield-curve inversions used to predict recessions because they were driven by Fed tightening (which is generally *designed* to slow the economy, often with a willingness to accept a recession). The last couple "predicted" recessions because rates were already high relative to what was going on in the economy (meaning, the recession was already on the way, and the Fed was just a little late to respond). But this time, since inflation came back down to roughly normal without a recession (possibly, expectations driven by the Feds actions worked without the need to actually raise rates to the point where they were mechanically slowing the economy), the inversion is much less informative--probably just means that inflation rose without being embedded in expectations and people expect the rate hikes to be temporary.

From Goldman Sachs' analysis:

We don’t share the widespread concern about yield curve inversion. Conceptually, an inverted curve means that the rates market is pricing future cuts that are large enough to outweigh the term premium (which accounts for the usual upward slope). In the past, this has generally only happened in situations when a recession was becoming clearly visible—hence the curve’s strong track record as a recession predictor. But three things are different about the current cycle. First, the term premium is well below its long-term average, so it takes fewer expected rate cuts to invert the curve. Second, there is a plausible path to Fed easing just on the back of lower inflation— in fact, both our and the FOMC’s non-recession projections call for more than 200bp of gradual cuts in the next 2-3 years. Third, if forecasters are overly pessimistic now, rates market investors — and thus the expectations priced into the yield curve — are probably also overly pessimistic. So the argument that the inverted curve validates the consensus forecast of a recession is circular, to say the least.
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Again, I'd add to that this part "In the past, this has generally only happened in situations when a recession was becoming clearly visible" that going back further in time, it also reflected it also happened when the Fed was deliberately causing recessions to tame inflation.
 
UFCUCF said:
All in all it was a strong labor report and unemployment remains historically low. The report even revised upward previous quarters' reports. Sorry that the demand for negative Biden economic news exceeds the supply. Would love to see your source that **ALL** of the jobs added were part time. You said all.
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Here's part-time for economic reasons since 2020:

fredgraph.png


and here's total jobs:

fredgraph.png


The guy is just wrong.
 
Also the real estate bubble that has gone up hasn't popped yet.

I see a recession, not a depression. Everything goes in cycles and we are about due for a recession.
 
Jack V Savage said:
This is how ridiculous hacks are getting. Job growth is bad now (and BTW, part-time jobs are tracked, and real wages have been rising--and that's probably bad because it means more automation is coming, though that will also increase wages...).
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wages are not raising to meet inflation, if it was , there wouldn't be record credit card debts.

and your fucking name is HACK. all you literally do is tell people they are doing exactly what you are doing


ultra conservative USA Today
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2024/01/25/part-time-jobs-hit-record-high/72331112007/
 
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James Eagle said:
wages are not raising to meet inflation, if it was , there wouldn't be record credit card debts.

and your fucking name is HACK. all you literally do is tell people they are doing exactly what you are doing
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Of course they are. Credit card debt is always at record levels if you don't scale it properly. And when have I ever done what you're doing? You're trying to rubber-glue me but you're busted red-handed and there are no examples of me ever doing that.
 
@Jack V Savage

nothing on retired folks coming back into the workforce because of INFLATION?

my stepmom was a school teacher, with a masters in early childhood education with an emphasis on special needs kids. She retired, full pension. She went back because shit got so expensive. Guess when that was?
 
James Eagle said:
@Jack V Savage

nothing on retired folks coming back into the workforce because of INFLATION?

my stepmom was a school teacher, with a masters in early childhood education with an emphasis on special needs kids. She retired, full pension. She went back because shit got so expensive. Guess when that was?
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Please calm down. This is the greatest economic period in American history.
 
James Eagle said:
It was all part time jobs, you know the ones people with full time jobs already took on, because of inflation
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At least half the people I went to high school with that are full time employed all have 2nd part time jobs. Kind of sad, none of them make awful salaries either it's just everything is so expensive.
Protectandserve said:
My other half has been looking for a part time job and no where is hiring. Lots of applications out but nothing.
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Applicant numbers are crazy right now for part time jobs and side gigs. Entry level country club near my house for example is about to open a small fitness center within the clubhouse (I think around May) and they are predicting based on inquires they've already received that close to 100 people will apply for the part time fitness desk position.

Insane, a $13-14 an hour job that years ago would basically be nothing but highschoolers will in reality end up being full time employed college educated adults picking up extra hours because they need the money. I've been in health and fitness for 15 years with every cert/license imaginable (esthetician, massage, personal trainer, CPR instructor, lifeguard) and I bet if applied for one of the 2 full time positions, they'd end up only offering/hiring me for part time front desk due to the sheer number of applicants.
 
James Eagle said:
@Jack V Savage

nothing on retired folks coming back into the workforce because of INFLATION?

my stepmom was a school teacher, with a masters in early childhood education with an emphasis on special needs kids. She retired, full pension. She went back because shit got so expensive. Guess when that was?
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Retired folks aren't reentering the workforce because of inflation.
 
Rob Battisti said:
Please calm down. This is the greatest economic period in American history.
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I love how pissed off partisans are about the fact that the economy is blooming. Nice little bonus to the overall great news.
 
Jack V Savage said:
Retired folks aren't reentering the workforce because of inflation.
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You think it’s transitory.

No, she wasn’t enjoying retirement, she wanted to get up early, and go teach 3-4 year olds with special needs who are always sick, who have the best parents, because her heart was in it. She retired, FULL PENSION, a state pension. She certainly did it out of the bottom of her heart.

This is why you are Hack. You’ve always played a smug character. But you are a know nothing HACK.
 
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