Dave Meltzer Predictions and Corroborations

Discussion in 'UFC Discussion' started by coder, Aug 6, 2015.

  1. coder

    coder Yellow Belt

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    Lots of people agree with Dave Meltzer's predictions. The proof they say is from his WWE PPV predictions which then have to be released every quarter, WWE being a publicly traded company.

    There is one instance though that can prove his predictions one way or the other. He predicted UFC 141 to have done 550K buys. There was a lawsuit against Overeem by his former management team. During which they had to reveal his pay for this fight vs Brock.

    Has anyone corroborated on what his pay vs PPV buys predicted by Dave Meltzer? That could establish the accuracy of his predictions.
     
  2. Iron Leg

    Iron Leg Brown Belt

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    IIRC Melzer originally predicted 141 to have done 750k buys, then much later lowered it to 535k, which is a massive revision. I'm not sure what triggered him to make such a huge revision though.
     
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  3. Darth Sonik

    Darth Sonik White Belt

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    Estimates not predictions. He has a process, which some people likes to ignore or twist depending on their own bias at the time.

    He has contacts within the various TV PPV providers, his numbers reflect this and he estimates for where he doesn't get numbers. His numbers are based on the North American TV PPV market, and are not indicative of the worlwide online PPV market which as a UFC controlled entity may have different results.

    He has an initial estimate based on circumstantial but relevant factors such as prelim ratings, fighter profiles, card strength, internet activity, social media buzz. This estimate typically will have a wide range.

    The second estimate is based on early numbers. For example he frequently gets the DTV numbers quickly, and as a national provider they can be more indicative than the various regionally tied cable companies. If they don't agree with his early estimate he will say the numbers look higher or lower than the first estimate. He may give out a tighter range if needed or if everything is pretty much lining up he will give a number.

    The last number is his final estimate, given when all the numbers he can get have come in.
     
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  4. coder

    coder Yellow Belt

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    Makes sense
     
  5. woodsideQ

    woodsideQ Brown Belt

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    that being said how does "IIRC Melzer originally predicted 141 to have done 750k buys, then much later lowered it to 535k, which is a massive revision. I'm not sure what triggered him to make such a huge revision though." happen?

    and i'm not hating that seems to be a sound approach so not sure why it is off 50% in some cases
     
  6. DGT4NOW

    DGT4NOW Red Belt Platinum Member

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    The big discrepancy in #141 for his first estimate was off was due to it being on a Friday instead of a Saturday & that threw off the trends/data.
    He owned up to the discrepancy.
    As the other poster said & as I say every time this gets brought up, he never says his first number is final.
    People take his info & misconstrue it all the time
    On his overnight audio Mon/Tue he said #190 looks to do over 800k by the very early trends & he put in perspective that 800k in North America buys looks to beat every Wrestlemania but Rock/Cena & that one did 970k. He then said when all numbers come in, it even might beat that.
    Next thing you know Luke Thomas tweets that Meltzer said 190 did over 970k lol.

    There was a Wrestlemania a few years ago where WWE press released a high number & Meltzer said that his figures had it lower. When WWE had to release the exact number, it was exactly Meltzer's number.
    WWE stopped releasing numbers early after that because they were slammed for making their first release look to be 100k higher because that manipulates stock
     
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  7. Marc A

    Marc A Being broke is being dishonest

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    Thank you for clarifying , makes sense
     
  8. Marc A

    Marc A Being broke is being dishonest

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    Great info
     
  9. Thunderchild

    Thunderchild Platinum Nation Belt

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    It would be interesting to know, but a single piece of actual data would not corroborate or disprove his predictions, you would need more. What if he got it right/wrong and that was a fluke?
     
  10. DarkneT

    DarkneT Gold Belt Platinum Member

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    I can't stand Meltzer to be honest

    No one that old should fuck with WWE like
    He does
     
  11. D 1 Wrestler

    D 1 Wrestler Look up to me

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    what's up meltzer
     

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