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[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Ryvius at -115 over Staz. Remember how good it felt to pick Tyler at -120 yesterday, watch his Bomb Warrior stomp all over Secret Hunter, then watch his opponent switch to a more Midrange package that MERELY makes this a 65% match-up for Bomb Warrior?

Well, now we get to experience that joy all over again, at slightly better odds!

muzzy at -105 over StrifeCro. Mech Paladin versus Cyclone Mage, a unique match-up! It's yet to be played in this tournament, and I'll be damned if I've ever seen it myself. However, doing a little research shows that Mech Paladin is at an abysmal 36.6% here. This makes intuitive sense.

I've played a lot of Mech Hunter versus Cyclone Mage, and while Mech Hunter has an edge (around 57% normally) in global stats, that's because the average donkey on ladder misplays the complex, demanding Cyclone Mage deck-type...as horribly as Pathra misplays everything. When played accurately, this match-up is either even or a slight edge to Cyclone Mage, as reflected in Cyclone Mage edging out multiple 2-1s in this tournament versus its cold, steely foe.

Well, compared to Mech Hunter, Mech Paladin has a much shittier hero power, way less removal (and nothing like the insane Venomizer Missile Launcher combo), and less direct damage. Oh, and Boommaster Flark > Tirion Fordring for this match-up. So -105 sounds very appetizing here.

Swidz at -115 over RDU. Water Rogue has a great match-up against Midrange Hunter. Sure, Midrange Hunter can win it if they draw Zulijin at the right time, but at -115, I will take the match-up that Rogue wins around 65% of the time in best 2 out of 3.

In other amusing lines, is Pathra breaking new ground for female gamers everywhere by being a mind-numbing +200 in a match-up where she is slightly favored. Holy shit. If this isn't humiliating, I don't know what is.

PNC at +160 versus Fr0zen is mighty tempting at first. Even with Snip Snap, Cyclone Mage has a slight edge over Token Druid, so +160 is awesome, right?

Unfortunately, PNC has decided to play more of a Summoning Mage package (seriously, why?) and only 2 Giants intead of 4. That's going to hurt badly in this match-up, nevermind the unnecessary weapon tech (Ooze plus Harrison Jones in the primary). Maybe there is still value in this at +160, but given the flagrantly broken lines I've seen so far, I will give this a pass.

Hearthstone Recap-

Muzzy and Ryvius both crushed their opponents 2-0 without any serious worries in any of the 4 games (and I called the brand-new Mech Paladin vs. Cyclone Mage match-up perfectly), but RDU prevailed over Swidz 2-1. Haven't gotten a chance to look at the games yet, but I said it was a 65% best 2 out of 3 in favor of Water Rogue, or the equivalent of -185.

I'll take the -185 at -115 odds again the next time it's offered!

In related news, PNC's "creativity" did indeed turn an otherwise dominating match-up into a losing one (this happens a lot in competitive Hearthstone), and Pathra continues her brilliance by losing 0-2 to go to a scintillating 0-8. Perhaps even more impressive, she has won just 3 games.

One reason I rag on her so much is that I, a top Arena player who has never seriously played Constructed beyond ladder, would do far, far better than her, which leads me to believe THOUSANDS of actual tournament Constructed players would do better than her, which is what makes her taking up a slot on the Grandmaster Tour and its guaranteed prize pool so goddamn insulting.

For those that follow MMA, this is the equivalent of CM Punk being on a PPV main card making $500k when some of the enthusiasts on Sherdog would kick his ass. At least CM Punk was a successful pro wrestler before then. Pathra can't say the same.

This was very evident in her loss to Shaxy. She played Bomb Warrior, a slow, reactive value deck relying on its insane board clears and unbeatable late game options, as a high-tempo deck instead, including using Dynomite to clear 2 1/1s.

And she did this against Water Rogue...one of the most high-tempo decks in the meta right now. Needless to say, she lost. It's not exactly Hearthstone 101, but it's also something I would expect any half-way decent Arena player to know.

Alas friends, it appears that 5Dimes' foray into competitive Hearthstone was not a happy one, as they have yet to offer any lines on Sunday's games. If they do, I will offer updates. If not, it was a happy if short run.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

So Dimes tried to get around sneaky bettors by releasing the lines extremely late (like 2 am, right around when the first game in the Asia-Pacific region started) AND only releasing the complete lines this morning.

Nice try guys, but the joke's on you; I woke up today well-rested and refreshed, as opposed to the normal zombie state I make decisions in the night prior.

This helped me avoid a potential pitfall with Silvername vs. BoarControl. Silvername has a lot of things going against him, despite being my Russian countryman; he is playing poorly this tournament, to the point of making obvious misplays, he is playing Token Druid versus Rogue, which has lost 0-2 twice in the tournament already, AND he is playing a bad Token Druid at that.

And yet, I'm not betting Silvername at -130, either. Why? Because watching the two 0-2 match-ups previously, it's very clear at what point Rogue took over and won. Namely, it's thanks to crazy Spirit of the Shark turns.

Unfortunately for Silvername, he is playing Tempo Rogue, NOT Water Rogue, so he doesn't have that card. That changes the match-up considerably. The fact that Token Druid does significantly better against Tempo Rogue versus Water Rogue according to global stats supports this assertion.

Dimes is also learning as they finally gave Bomb Warrior a huge edge over Secret Hunter (-205 as opposed to -110) and Water Rogue a huge edge (also like -205 as opposed to around -120) around Cyclone Mage.

Unfortunately for them, there are also new match-ups.

And I rather like Thjis's Tempo Rogue against Pogo Rogue at -145, even though it jumped suddenly to that number from -120 when I was putting in my pick. (Goddamn it) The latter is a nice counter-pick to Warrior, but is just too slow against either Water or Tempo Rogue.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Welp! Just watched the game live, and Viper hit a perfect draw in all 3 games while Thjis misdrew in all 3 games.

The thing is, the match-up is SO advantageous for Tempo Rogue that Thjis STILL won the first game and had good chances in the next two. Little salty at losing what is realistically a -250 at -145 odds, but that's the reality of gambling, whether it's MMA or a children's card game.

Thinking long and hard right now about 1 last bet later today, which will be all the Hearthstone we will see for 2 weeks, as they're taking next week off.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Final bet for almost two weeks; StrifeCro at -155 over Amnesiac.

Apparently this one stuck out like a sore thumb for others, as I grabbed this at -125 a mere 90 minutes ago and it's already -155. I bet against StrifeCro and his Mech Paladin yesterday if you'll recall.

That was against Cyclone Mage, a miserable match-up. Now he's playing Midrange Hunter. While this is a new match-up for the Grandmaster Tour, it bears noting that according to global stats, the single worst match-up for Midrange Hunter out of ALL the classes and ALL the deck types (we're literally talking 50+ options here)...is Mech Paladin. They score an anemic 35% there.

Can Amnesiac improve upon the crappy way most people misplay Midrange Hunter on ladder? Sure. At the same time, StrifeCro can improve upon the crappy way most people play Mech Paladin. Furthermore, scoring 35% with an easier deck type like Midrange Hunter can't be solely blamed on bad play.

It's also worth noting that speaking as an Arena specialist, one of the bad match-ups for Hunter in general is Paladin. And that's because of exactly the kind of removal, sticky minions, high health taunts, and board buffs that we will be seeing plenty of in this match-up.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

...And that was one of the easiest 2-0 victories I've seen in a while. Hunter never stood a chance.

Shout-outs to the clueless commentators, especially the smug blue-haired Asian dumbass Frodan, who claimed, incredibly, that this was a difficult (!!!) match-up for Mech Paladin, only "somewhat" better than the one against Cyclone Mage yesterday.