Nikita is weird in that he's obviously a very talented submission ace on the mats with fifteen sub wins, including some over very credentialed grapplers... but he's also very defensively irresponsible when it comes to submission awareness and escapes and leaves himself open to getting caught and tapped. Normally I would consider this a major liability against someone like Craig, who is one of the most dangerous BJJ guys in the division and has a wicked guard. But Krylov actually seems to be fighting more intelligently lately and his level of competition has been
immense compared to Craig.
Look at Paul's resume. His best win is Hill, which is absolutely fantastic (though he got rocked badly). I'll give him the last-minute sub against Ankalaev, too, despite getting dominated for essentially 99% of that fight. But other than that, he's been finished by the likes of Rountree, Pedro, Crute, and Menifield. He has two wins over the ghost of Shogun. And the others are over guys who are more or less irrelevant in the division. Krylov, conversely in his last five fights: just went three rounds against Ankalaev and actually outgrappled him in the first round to secure it before losing the latter two, wrestlefucked Johnny Walker to a UD, took current champ Glover Teixeira to a competitive Split Decision where he survived his grappling attack and even established some takedowns and control time of his own, submitted OSP, and then had a back-and-forth fight with Jan with strikes and takedowns before getting caught in an arm-triangle choke.
I know Paul Craig has worked dutifully on his wrestling, but there's a difference between taking down a shell of a man in Shogun versus Nikita -- who actually stuffed six takedowns against Ankalaev and five against Teixeira (as well as OSP). I think Krylov has the wrestling to keep this on the feet and scramble out of bad spots, at which point the standup is lopsidedly in his favor. The man has a legitimate striking pedigree and has knocked out a fuckton of people, while Craig has been chinned by lesser fighters.
My official pick is Krylov via KO/TKO in Round 2, but I've got misgivings. The man is far too apt to mix in his wrestling offensively and hunt submissions when he shouldn't... and Craig doesn't need much of an opening to cinch something up.
fuck Krylov hope he gets his knee ripped apart via heel hook
That's a fucked up thing to wish upon pretty much any professional athlete. What did Krylov do to rustle your jimmies?
