100% in agreement with you. I think Chimaev's camp is going to play this one safe. It's clear they learned how to fight SMART based on the approach they took in the Holland fight, and while Costa obviously has superior takedown defense compared to Holland, Chimaev is more game in that regard than his previous opponents. Outside of Chimaev being an idiot and trying to stand and bang the whole fight, I don't see a clear path to victory for Costa. He hasn't looked particularly special since his fight with Romero 4 years ago.
But who the fuck knows, maybe the wino can pull off an upset. It'd be karma for Chimaev's egregious weight transgression.