Contender Series Week 5

[B.Goetz]

Contender Series 2025: Week 5 | MMA Event | Tapology

Contender Series 2025 takes place Tuesday, September 9, 2025 with 5 fights at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. View fight card, video, results, predictions, and news.

www.tapology.com

 

[B.Goetz]

Blair -104 $18.94 to win $18.21

Both seem pretty hittable, TBH. I didn't watch much tape on Sanches, but I'm confident he's not a 22-year-old prodigy that the UFC is looking to sign. Blair looks to have the more polished offence from outside range, and he has his wrestling in reserve as a second path to victory.

Foro +150 is worth considering. She could win via pressure, as she likes to come forward and Dyer doesn't look comfortable with that. OTOH, Dyer should have a big size advantage (she looked like a good sized flyweight, and this is her debut at 115. No idea how she will handle the cut.) O2.5 is -160 at BOL right now, so FGTD might be -145/-150ish when that opens later today. I might just take that instead. If I did bet Foro, I would take her decision line as I don't see her finishing Dyer.

 

[B.Goetz]

Guarascio -162 $19.44 to win $12.00

Asplund is fairly agile for a big man, but not a technical striker. He has absolutely no ground game. Guarascio is a decent boxer/kickboxer. He should be better everywhere.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Foro should be a slight favourite imo. Very powerful for the weight, punches to the body well, knows what she's good at, will pressure forward and try and get Dyer on the back foot and take her space away. Only loss was at 125 to a multi time ammy world champ who's one of the best flyweights outside the UFC.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Of the other fights.

Sanches could be anything. I think Blair is pretty average but with the lack of tape available on Sanches I really couldn't have a lean either way. If Sanches has TDD he probably wins. He trains on Jailton's team so you figure he should but I don't know, seems a risk.

Guarascio seems priced about right. I'm expecting him to run Asplund over in round 1 but I haven't seen him pushed deep into a fight and I think the price is fair given that.

Douglas I don't think is anything too special but he does have fuck you power and he carries in late into a fight, feel like he catches Teague at some point but if Teague can eat his shots there's a world where he can wear him down. Not going for it but I could see myself wishing I had if Teague is coming on strong in round three, I just think Cam is too hittable though. Might see what the over is actually.

Franco passes the eye test but hasn't been tested, Vidal looks pretty shit. Think Franco is rightly the favourite but not betting anyone who's only fought cans at that price.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

-620 on Douglas is crazy.

 

[B.Goetz]

I decided to cash out my Blair bet. Sanches didn't look great from what I've seen , but Blair really doesn't belong in the UFC.

Guarascio -164 $32.80 to win $20.00
Blair-Sanches FGTD +240 $10.00 to win $24.00
Foro + o1.5 +260 $10.00 to win $26.00
Foro-Dyer FGTD -135, -122 $69.44 to win $53.72

Decided to take Foro o1.5 (rather than o2.5) in case Dyer fades later in the fight due to the weight cut and pace.

 

[B.Goetz]

At Monday’s official weigh-ins in Las Vegas for Week 5 of DWCS, light heavyweight Freddy Vidal came in four pounds over the non-title limit, registering at 210 pounds for his bout with Felipe Franco (204). Circumstances are less than ideal for Vidal, who is stepping in on short notice following Franco already having lost two previously scheduled opponents.

DWCS fighter misses weight by 4 pounds for Week 5 event

Freddy Vidal had a big weight miss ahead of UFC tryout.

www.mmafighting.com

 

[svmr_db]

We got over 2.5 rounds boys, looked like we wouldn't get over 2.5 minutes for a moment lol.

 

[B.Goetz]

Foro + o1.5 +260 $10.00 to win $26.00
Foro-Dyer FGTD -135, -122 $69.44 to win $53.72

That was sweaty, but I'll be up for the night no matter what.

 

[B.Goetz]

Almost had Sanches +150, then +120. I should've been more decisive when Blair struggled so much to get the TD.

 

[B.Goetz]

Vidal -125 $12.50 to win $10.00

Got the worst odds possible, but I'll take it. Thought he was a goner in the second.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

Wowza, best finish of the season so far.

 

[B.Goetz]

Guarascio -164 $32.80 to win $20.00
Blair-Sanches FGTD +240 $10.00 to win $24.00
Foro + o1.5 +260 $10.00 to win $26.00
Foro-Dyer FGTD -135, -122 $69.44 to win $53.72
Vidal -125 $12.50 to win $10.00

= $46.92