Contender Series 2021: Week 3

[BigSteve]

 

[Thesnake101]

Thinking of playing Jasmine and Jack straight. Brzeski, Duraev and either of the aforementioned MLs in a parlay as well.

Tempted to throw something Jailton's way since I've seen his grappling style get hyped on worldwide.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Thinking of playing Jasmine and Jack straight. Brzeski, Duraev and either of the aforementioned MLs in a parlay as well.

Tempted to throw something Jailton's way since I've seen his grappling style get hyped on worldwide.

I tend to favour Polastri over Jasmine tbh, Jasmine didn't manage to impose her physicality on much smaller Elise Reed and Polastri fights like a bit of a tank.

Jailton has a very Khabib cage grappling style, but I think it's a risk backing him doing it against a Russian wrestler who's used to that style, he's implemented it fantastically well against guys on the Brazilian scene though.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Safest Play:
Mo Miller(-330): When evaluating him you must remove any thought of how he would fair at BW in the UFC. He is a wrestler that will wrestle his opponent until they allow him to complete the takedown. Mo often is matched with much smaller men, as is the case with his opponent Brandon Lewis, despite being a 5'9 BW with a 72 inch reach and big hands. Respectfully, I believe all the advantages are with Mo, and it is semi-puzzling how Lewis found his way into the DWCS pool. Lewis, should not be fighting at BW, is totally outmatched and it is hard to see this going over 1.5 rounds.

Relatively Safe Play:
Lukasz Brzeski(-250): Lukasz is a gritty striker with solid fundamentals who is going to have a significant advantage as long as this fight stays standing. Lukasz has power and in fairness to him a few of the referees overseeing some of his recent bouts have made him work harder than a ref on DWCS will for the TKO. His opponent Dylan Potter is an interesting fighter that has bounced around weight-classes and despite his somewhat muddy record of 10-5 he is 5-1 as a HW. Potter does not hold any notable wins but he did in my view get robbed of a decision at LHW against Myron Dennis in LFA. Potter has a gas tank to potentially go the distance if Brzeski does not put him out, but he doesn't have many realistic paths to victory at HW as he is quite green and should be fighting at LHW not HW. Lukasz has not exactly been fighting elite competition but respectfully this is a very hard fight to envision Potter winning at the moment. I can envision Potter getting a shot in the UFC as a late notice LHW replacement if he wins a few on the regional circuit but not HW.

Strong Lean:
Jasmine Jasudavicius(-108): Jasmine is an agressive striker that spends a lot of time trying to get her opponents in a Muay Thai Plum seemingly out of habit as she does not appear to have much of a background in it. Jasmines striking is serviceable though she does most of her damage when she can clinch and knee her opponents. She is very capable of taking her opponents down though she unfortunately does occasionally choose to stand with them when her clearest path to victory is to take them down and inflict ground and pound. While she made several mistakes, most noticeably on the ground, in her lone loss to Elise Reed (UFC FW/SW) I personally believe she won the fight and should still be undefeated. Furthermore, she is tall (5"7), strong, and athletic which should be useful when she takes on her opponent Julia Polastri who is a 5"2 strawweight that has fought at attomweight but never flyweight where this bout is being contested. Julia has a good record against experienced opponents, is tough, and appears to have a very good gas tank. I do believe Julia is the better fighter, but Jasmine is technically proficient, aggressive, and athletic enough to stop her right in her tracks. Jasmine also has looked improved fight over fight and a TKO via G&P is what I expect to see from her but I still would lean on the safe side and just assume it goes the distance.

Slight Lean:
Ange Loosa(+130): is a heavy handed striker with a questionable gas tank. Ange hurts his opponents quickly and has shown an ability to finish aggressive fighters that come out recklessly so this fight will likely somewhat be dependent on the strategy his opponent Della chooses. His opponent Della has accumulated a solid nine fight win streak versus some game competition but he definitely has dealt not fought a fighter with Anges power, fight iq, and experience. He seems a little too willing to trade occasionally which is why I side with Ange and believe he will get it done inside the distance. If this bout goes to decision Ange has cardio for two rounds and Della has not been out of the second round so what happens in that third round and who ultimately would win a decision while Ange would be the safe play it is not out of the question Della could win a decision. It goes without saying Della has power and any outcome is concievable.

Tossup:
Jailton Almeida(+195): I believe Jailton has a very real shot of winning. I am aware of how touted a prospect Nasrudin is but the physical advantages Jailton has in conjunction with his grappling heavy approach make this far more of a tossup. Jailton has an 8" inch reach advantage and is strong, physical, and agressive. If Nasrudin has a fifteen minute kickboxing match with Jailton of course I think he wins the majority of the time, but Jailton will be hunting the submission, has power of his own, and is the bigger and stronger man. Nasrudin is a good fighter but these two as you will see are separated by at least a weight class. Jailton is also the only fighter to submit UFC vet Ildemar Alcantara in his 40+ professional fights; worth keeping in mind.

I did not tape Duraev/Bittencourt as I was under the impression it would be on 9/21 when I began watching these fighters.

 

[Shelter]

Boring move, but I'm doing a Miller/Duraev/Nasrudinov parlay (+128). Given last week's results an upset in at least one of those fights seems likely, so I'm not betting a lot.

To have Miller's wrestling background and his (5'8) size advantage over Lewis (5'4), I'm not expecting Miller to have any problems. It sounds like Lewis faded against his last opponent, and throws pretty wildly, which will open him up even more to takedowns should Miller want them as a D2 All-American

With Duraev, I get that both have been out for a while (3 years for each), but the names on his resume are much better and training at a camp like Berkut FC I doubt he's been removed from the game during that time. Bittencourt's level of competition isn't exactly impressive, he has one win over a fighter with a winning record since 2015. Size advantage goes to Bittencourt for sure, but I think Duraev finds success ducking under the hands and finishing him before the end of round 2. Has there been any talk about why these two have been out for so long?

Nasrudinov is undersized for LHW, but that Akhmat Fight Club training camp should prepare him well to wrestle and grind this one out. Almeida's wins are either against complete nobodies or brokedown old veterans. His last opponent was 44 years old, and his big name win against MW Alcantara came when Alcantara was 37 years old and over 40 fights deep into his MMA career. His win over UFC veteran Ednaldo Oliveira came when Oliveira was 35 years old. Probably a lot easier to look like a grappling phenom when your opponents' knees sound like a bag of microwave popcorn in the morning.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I tend to favour Polastri over Jasmine tbh, Jasmine didn't manage to impose her physicality on much smaller Elise Reed and Polastri fights like a bit of a tank.

Jailton has a very Khabib cage grappling style, but I think it's a risk backing him doing it against a Russian wrestler who's used to that style, he's implemented it fantastically well against guys on the Brazilian scene though.

Reed/Jasudavicius was contested at SW.

Polastri/Jasudavicius is going to be a flyweight.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Reed/Jasudavicius was contested at SW.

Polastri/Jasudavicius is going to be a flyweight.

I know, I don't think Jasmine will have much physical advantage based on what I've seen of both girls. I've seen Jasmine fight three times and Polastri twice.

 

[rev0lver]

Liking Loosa a lot here. He's extremely strong, aggressive, and explosive. Fought out of Oezdemir's gym in Switzerland and more recently been training at Sanford MMA. Not really liking what I see from Jack in tape, he looks pretty hittable and doesn't throw a ton of power despite his string of KO's. I usually like putting some stock in Australian fighters, but fwiw he fights out of western Australia, not with the usual crews from there. Loosa can definitely fade if this goes over 1.5 or so, but I think he finds the finish in the first.

 

[ExitLUPin]

Duraev is an absolute lock. He's already better than many ranked UFC MWs IMO which isn't saying a whole lot with how shit the division is rn but he's gooood

I feel there's an upset here either Jailton or Potter but dunno who

 

[rev0lver]

Tbh I don't get why some of these dudes are fighting on DWCS. Jailton-Nasrudinov should easily be a ufc level fight, and it sucks that the loser will probably have to fight their way back. Same with Chidi last week. I feel like they're putting some guys in there just out of a lack of room on cards or something. Thought the whole point of this was for good prospects who lack the resume or experience to prove themselves, like Mo Miller here.

 

[guesswhoseback]

Polastir(+108) (Under 2.5 +165)
Maddelna(-136)(Under 2.5-190)
Potter(+270)(Under 2.5-185)
Durave(-335)(Under 2.5-185)
Miller(-420)(Under 2.5 -155)
Nasrudinov(-200)(Over 1.5-155)

 

[Thesnake101]

You Loosa backers had me worried about going with the guy I believe to be more proven, Jack, but I managed to find one snippet that assuaged my fears:



Maddalena is far from a lock, Contender Series voodo fuckery aside, but I do think the odds are right in this case. Two somewhat untested sluggers that aren't exactly impervious to blows.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

You Loosa backers had me worried about going with the guy I believe to be more proven, Jack, but I managed to find one snippet that assuaged my fears:



Maddalena is far from a lock, Contender Series voodo fuckery aside, but I do think the odds are right in this case. Two somewhat untested sluggers that aren't exactly impervious to blows.

Loosa has looked like that in the third round of every single one of his fights that went to the third. The same thing occurred in his very next fight in Titan FC which he won by split decision. His cardio was non existent in the third round which allowed a much less experienced and less talented fighter to take him to a split decision.

Della hasn't been to the third round so how he would fare is an unknown.

Despite the cardio issues his fight iq is strong which is the main reason why I think he can finish Della in the first round. He hurts guys very quickly and once he does he puts them out.

 

[Thesnake101]

Loosa has looked like that in the third round of every single one of his fights that went to the third. The same thing occurred in his very next fight in Titan FC which he won by split decision. His cardio was non existent in the third round which allowed a much less experienced and less talented fighter to take him to a split decision.

Della hasn't been to the third round so how he would fare is an unknown.

Despite the cardio issues his fight iq is strong which is the main reason why I think he can finish Della in the first round. He hurts guys very quickly and once he does he puts them out.

All of the guys he's beaten are pretty unremarkable save for his last opponent though. I'll give you that he's athletic and knows how to make it work, but I think Jack will be able to survive the early danger and build from there.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Ange, but that loss is really ugly, especially since Thomison went ahead and got KO'd in less than a minute afterwards.

 

[rev0lver]

Loosa has looked like that in the third round of every single one of his fights that went to the third. The same thing occurred in his very next fight in Titan FC which he won by split decision. His cardio was non existent in the third round which allowed a much less experienced and less talented fighter to take him to a split decision.

Della hasn't been to the third round so how he would fare is an unknown.

Despite the cardio issues his fight iq is strong which is the main reason why I think he can finish Della in the first round. He hurts guys very quickly and once he does he puts them out.

Della also looks to have pretty bad striking defense and does not hit nearly as hard. Idk if I'd agree to call him the more proven guy either. He doesn't look like he's fighting cans by their records, but it's pretty much all people in the western Australian circuit which is kind of low level. I was on Della when wikicapping but watching him fight... neither him nor his opponents ever seem that great.

Definitely worth pointing out the Della hasn't seen a round 3. He very well could have the better cardio, but we don't know. Either way, this seems like the kind of matchup where Loosa can just overwhelm him early

 

[ExitLUPin]

Nasrudinov is so bleh and he'd a blown up MW to boot. I'm taking Jailton tho I don't think he's that great himself. Just more dynamic, far better finishing ability

 

[Zakk Lanphear]

DWTCS Sep 14 2021

Polastri vs Jasdavicious

It’s perplexing that Jas lacks striking output when many of the difficult habits of a good striker are already present. She has decent timing, patience, quick feet, attempts to find angles, moves backwards and forwards instead of leaning, keeps her head and high hands actively defending and feints are built into her natural fighting rhythm. She just doesn’t pull the trigger nearly enough and I feel like she’s likely overthinking in the moment of what to actually do with the reads she’s building, offensively. Her defense though is smooth and natural and that’s a much trickier thing to develop in a fighter, so I feel like expecting some offensive growth from fight to fight isn’t farfetched.

Polastri is a nuts and bolts sprawl and brawler, not something you see too often at her typical 115 due to the speed most 115’ers have and the usual lack of stopping power. She plods into range, looks to use her natural power to throw hooks and has a quick sprawl in her pocket with heavy hips, good balance and pathological aggression to dissuade takedowns. Her defense is an absolute mess though. Her head is fixed, hands are either low or reaching to poorly parry and she lacks the twitch or footwork to hop or lean out of the way cleanly.

Unless Jas has learned how to actually throw her jab instead of just feint it, this fight is gonna be contested in the clinch. Jas looks for it very readily and Polastri is going to plod right into it and her aggression will basically had Jas the opportunity to get inside. I foresee Jas being too technical and too physical in this spot. While Polastri does have a good sprawl and strong hips, I’d be surprised if this extended to her topside grappling. Jas has a plethora of takedowns from the clinch, can likely get to the back with ease and even if Polastri manages to keep her squared up, the height advantage is devastating in the clinch. Ultimately I think Polastri really lacks the footwork or physicality to take advantage of Jas’s lack of offense given the clinch disparity and I feel like her only real path her is a knockout shot, which isn’t impossible but unlikely in her first fight at 125 vs a very defensively aware fighter. Whereas Jas could conceivably pick her apart in space but will likely just beat her up in clinch with the occasional takedown. The pick is Jasdavicious.


Loosa vs Maddalena/Duraev vs Bittencourt

Loosa hasn’t fought in 2.5 years and Duraev hasn’t in 3. I don’t personally feel comfortable making reads on fighters with that kind of resume gap. Fighters just change too much in that amount of time.


Potter vs Brzeski

Tale of two fighters here, Potter is a natural athlete and very fluid striker that lacks discipline and Brzeski is very rote and unnatural in his offense but more sound in moments. I say in moments because he can absolutely be knocked off his game. While he leads with a hoppy stance, the semblance of a jab and a functional low kick, this cracks when drawn into a firefight and the arm punches come out. Whereas Potter is who he is from start to finish, a flowing, diverse mess of attacks. He switches stances lazily, crosses his feet on occasion and mostly doesn’t sit down on his strikes but his dexterity, creativity and instinct create an exciting fighter that can string combos together at all distances from head to legs.

They do have two things in common though, the first thing being their lack of defense, specifically when striking. Even while Brz is keeping it tighter, circling well, staying in balance, his head is really straight and his doesn’t cover with the opposing hand or shoulder, inviting the countershot. This becomes significantly worse when his fundamentals fade and he just drops his hands entirely. Without any natural speed or flow to his game, his stiff head is just there to be thumped. Potter is even worse though and it’s due purely to defensive laziness. He just doesn’t care to involve any real defense in his game. He’s wide open to counters most of the time. I think this is really fixable though because he has the twitch, eyes and movement to get out of the way, if he’d just keep his hands up or roll his shoulders it would improve his defense quickly.

The other thing they have in common is neither is a real heavyweight. Potter is closer to a LHW but either one could likely make 205 and I don’t see either doing well as HW’s in the UFC. Neither person carries the kind of firepower you need to succeed here and while Potter is a good athlete for 205, at 265 he’s just not going to hit hard enough for how often I project him getting hit. Brz has even less of a shot because he doesn’t hit that hard and he doesn’t have big upside anywhere to balance out against how hittable he is.

This fight could just come down to who gets hit clean and hard first. Both fighters are gonna walk into it and both have been finished by strikes before, though Brz showed an incredible chin in his last fight. For me at nearly +350 I have to go with the value. Potter can fight for all 15 minutes, is a significantly more effortless fighter and isn’t going to be at much of a size disadvantage compared to the speed advantage I think he’ll have. What I’m most interested in is if Brz will grapple. While I didn’t see him go for takedowns on tape, some of his defensive grappling technique leads me to believe he has a decent grappling background and Potter absolutely can be taken down. Even then, I can’t take a fighter as hittable at over -300 odds. Potter is the pick.


Miller vs Lewis

This fight is a real shame. I think Lewis actually has solid potential, as much as a bricked up 5’4 bantamweight can at least. His striking is so fluid and comes from an incredible amount of angles. He clearly has a karate background with the way he explodes and darts but he’s transitioned it well having a relatively conventional though wide stance and not having as bad of defense as traditional martial arts converts tend to. He does leap into shots and can be flummoxed if pressed but outside of that he’s very powerful, has a hair trigger on all of his techniques and floats laterally very cleanly before sitting down into his attack.

That said he’s almost definitely getting washed here. Mo is also a monster athlete with ridiculous speed and some of the best wrestling I’ve seen at the weight class. I’m really not a fan of guys shooting in 2021. Not with how far standard takedown defense has come and the drawbacks if you’re stuffed. This guy isn’t getting stuffed though, at least not by Lewis. He chains too quickly, scrambles like he’s been wrestling all his life and can keep his foot on the pedal all the way through. I Love the way he incorporates his rides vs hunting for subs or getting out of position for strikes. He’s also weaponized the slam in a way I haven’t seen in a long time and can hit it over and over in all directions.

Potentially Lewis could get a KO here or snatch a sub, he’s a trained grappler and has excellent timing and technique on his explosive strikes. The reason I don’t think it’s happening though is how defensively aware Mo is. He stays firmly on the outside lurking to shoot. He’s a wrestling predator waiting for the moment his opponent gets heavy and blasts in lightning fast. This is especially bad for a guy like Lewis that really sinks down into his stance with every shot.

I see Mo getting in at some point, likely on a single and then either getting it down from there or chaining into the clinch. He’s just too fast and Lewis’s stance and footwork is too open for the takedown here. I really do hope I see him against a less quality opponent though as I really think Lewis has some potential.


Nasrudinov vs Almeida

There’s nothing I saw watching Nas that made me understand him being a big favorite here. I get he’s undefeated with a Russian name, but this guy is just really not that talented. He hangs at range and is decently measured from probing distance but his striking is so looping and predictable. His wrestling isn’t any more impressive. He dives singles and only sets it up with an overhand, not even a slick overhand, just an ugly lunging overhand. Outside of his distance management, his defense is really weak. He keeps his hands low, doesn’t move his head much and doesn’t have tight footwork. I do like his takedown defense, he’s got heavy, powerful hips and digs underhooks quickly but outside of that, I really don’t see what’s special about this guy. All of this is compounded by him being a middleweight sized and just not cutting weight. Not even a particularly athletic middleweight either. He’s got 3 rounds of cardio but he isn’t explosive, quick, incredibly strong or anything that I think will allow him to excel at LHW in the UFC.

On the other side of the card we have a real deal UFC LHW. Almeida is fucking huge, looks like he cuts a ton of weight and is very quick and powerful. There’s not a ton of footage out there due to the promotion he fights with and none of his fights going past the first round. What I can say is he’s gonna be putting Nas on the backfoot quick and I expect Nas to be the one wrestling here early. Almeida throws very quick, powerful kicks and has KO power in his hands plus a massive reach advantage. There’s no world I don’t see him shitkicking Nas on the feet, for at least the first round. Though I don’t think we’ll see that anyways.

Almeida wants to grapple but doesn’t have the takedown ability to take Nas to the floor and Nas isn’t gonna wanna stand with Almeida. I imagine he gets Almeida down by the virtue of Almeida wanting to grapple and inviting the work. That’s where it’s interesting to me though. Almeida is significantly bigger and with how garbage I think Nas’s entrances are, I could see Almeida stuffing takedowns and keeping it standing where I think he’ll have a decided advantage early. That said if it does go to the ground, we have a real wrestler vs BJJ battle on our hands. I almost always lean wrestler in those circumstance but again, I don’t think Nas is particularly talented and he was very nearly swept by a grappler levels below Almeida. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Almeida subbed him at any point or sweeped to GnP. You also can’t be shocked in these spots if the wrestler just rides out top position while the bottom sub hunts.

Ultimately though the only path I see for Nas here is Almeida gassing, which could happen. Nas has shown the ability to go 3 and Almeida basically never leaves the first round and is brolic as hell. It wouldn’t shock me to see Nas survive grappling early in dominant position and then take over as Almeida gasses. I’m not betting on it though, I’ll take the more physically gifted fighter with the massive BJJ upside here at plus money. Almeida is the play.

My bets -All 1U-

Mo + Jas @ +112

Potter @ +342

Almeida @ +162

 

[BigSteve]

You Loosa backers had me worried about going with the guy I believe to be more proven, Jack, but I managed to find one snippet that assuaged my fears:



Maddalena is far from a lock, Contender Series voodo fuckery aside, but I do think the odds are right in this case. Two somewhat untested sluggers that aren't exactly impervious to blows.

Loosa has looked like that in the third round of every single one of his fights that went to the third. The same thing occurred in his very next fight in Titan FC which he won by split decision. His cardio was non existent in the third round which allowed a much less experienced and less talented fighter to take him to a split decision.

Della hasn't been to the third round so how he would fare is an unknown.

Despite the cardio issues his fight iq is strong which is the main reason why I think he can finish Della in the first round. He hurts guys very quickly and once he does he puts them out.

Loosa is a horrible minute winner. He either explodes going for the finish and gasses for the rest of the fight, or he conserves his energy and still goes to a split decision because he barely throws. His last 2 fights were decisions, one of which he got hurt in the third and you linked the highlight. If you go one more back against Rustam, he went ape shit trying to finish, Rustam survived the punishment, and the fight became super sloppy. The fight ended with Rustam having back control against the cage and ref stopping it because he didn't look all there while the Ref was talking to him, and then he started losing consciousness so they deemed it a TKO. Personally Loosa looked like he was going to die himself from exhaustion but who knows how that fight would have gone.

Della does start slow and commentators won't shut up about it in every fight, but he wins them regardless. You can see steady progress from fight to fight, slightly better defence and slightly crisper hands. Power is always there, I actually think he hits harder than Loosa. Della also works the body which im sure wont be ideal for Loosas cardio.That one punch in his last fight against Bates was super impressive, haven't seen Loosa put anyone out like that, he mostly swarms them with his athleticism and aggression. If Della doesn't get finished, he will gradually put on more pressure and volume, he never plays it safe. If Loosa wins the DEC il be impressed, but then again both are young and improving.

 

[Thesnake101]

Loosa is a horrible minute winner. He either explodes going for the finish and gasses for the rest of the fight, or he conserves his energy and still goes to a split decision because he barely throws. His last 2 fights were decisions, one of which he got hurt in the third and you linked the highlight. If you go one more back against Rustam, he went ape shit trying to finish, Rustam survived the punishment, and the fight became super sloppy. The fight ended with Rustam having back control against the cage and ref stopping it because he didn't look all there while the Ref was talking to him, and then he started losing consciousness so they deemed it a TKO. Personally Loosa looked like he was going to die himself from exhaustion but who knows how that fight would have gone.

Della does start slow and commentators won't shut up about it in every fight, but he wins them regardless. You can see steady progress from fight to fight, slightly better defence and slightly crisper hands. Power is always there, I actually think he hits harder than Loosa. Della also works the body which im sure wont be ideal for Loosas cardio.That one punch in his last fight against Bates was super impressive, haven't seen Loosa put anyone out like that, he mostly swarms them with his athleticism and aggression. If Della doesn't get finished, he will gradually put on more pressure and volume, he never plays it safe. If Loosa wins the DEC il be impressed, but then again both are young and improving.

Great post. There was one fight of Loosa's I saw where he quite literally caught his opponent spinning, cleanly, and the guy didn't so much as flinch, so I do agree with your assessment that he's more of a swarmer type.

What gives me a bit more confident in Jack is how he was able to fight through being hurt really bad against Abramo.

One thing to note is the layoff for Ange, could either come out rusty or like a completely different fighter.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

DWTCS Sep 14 2021

Polastri vs Jasdavicious

It’s perplexing that Jas lacks striking output when many of the difficult habits of a good striker are already present. She has decent timing, patience, quick feet, attempts to find angles, moves backwards and forwards instead of leaning, keeps her head and high hands actively defending and feints are built into her natural fighting rhythm. She just doesn’t pull the trigger nearly enough and I feel like she’s likely overthinking in the moment of what to actually do with the reads she’s building, offensively. Her defense though is smooth and natural and that’s a much trickier thing to develop in a fighter, so I feel like expecting some offensive growth from fight to fight isn’t farfetched.

Polastri is a nuts and bolts sprawl and brawler, not something you see too often at her typical 115 due to the speed most 115’ers have and the usual lack of stopping power. She plods into range, looks to use her natural power to throw hooks and has a quick sprawl in her pocket with heavy hips, good balance and pathological aggression to dissuade takedowns. Her defense is an absolute mess though. Her head is fixed, hands are either low or reaching to poorly parry and she lacks the twitch or footwork to hop or lean out of the way cleanly.

Unless Jas has learned how to actually throw her jab instead of just feint it, this fight is gonna be contested in the clinch. Jas looks for it very readily and Polastri is going to plod right into it and her aggression will basically had Jas the opportunity to get inside. I foresee Jas being too technical and too physical in this spot. While Polastri does have a good sprawl and strong hips, I’d be surprised if this extended to her topside grappling. Jas has a plethora of takedowns from the clinch, can likely get to the back with ease and even if Polastri manages to keep her squared up, the height advantage is devastating in the clinch. Ultimately I think Polastri really lacks the footwork or physicality to take advantage of Jas’s lack of offense given the clinch disparity and I feel like her only real path her is a knockout shot, which isn’t impossible but unlikely in her first fight at 125 vs a very defensively aware fighter. Whereas Jas could conceivably pick her apart in space but will likely just beat her up in clinch with the occasional takedown. The pick is Jasdavicious.


Loosa vs Maddalena/Duraev vs Bittencourt

Loosa hasn’t fought in 2.5 years and Duraev hasn’t in 3. I don’t personally feel comfortable making reads on fighters with that kind of resume gap. Fighters just change too much in that amount of time.


Potter vs Brzeski

Tale of two fighters here, Potter is a natural athlete and very fluid striker that lacks discipline and Brzeski is very rote and unnatural in his offense but more sound in moments. I say in moments because he can absolutely be knocked off his game. While he leads with a hoppy stance, the semblance of a jab and a functional low kick, this cracks when drawn into a firefight and the arm punches come out. Whereas Potter is who he is from start to finish, a flowing, diverse mess of attacks. He switches stances lazily, crosses his feet on occasion and mostly doesn’t sit down on his strikes but his dexterity, creativity and instinct create an exciting fighter that can string combos together at all distances from head to legs.

They do have two things in common though, the first thing being their lack of defense, specifically when striking. Even while Brz is keeping it tighter, circling well, staying in balance, his head is really straight and his doesn’t cover with the opposing hand or shoulder, inviting the countershot. This becomes significantly worse when his fundamentals fade and he just drops his hands entirely. Without any natural speed or flow to his game, his stiff head is just there to be thumped. Potter is even worse though and it’s due purely to defensive laziness. He just doesn’t care to involve any real defense in his game. He’s wide open to counters most of the time. I think this is really fixable though because he has the twitch, eyes and movement to get out of the way, if he’d just keep his hands up or roll his shoulders it would improve his defense quickly.

The other thing they have in common is neither is a real heavyweight. Potter is closer to a LHW but either one could likely make 205 and I don’t see either doing well as HW’s in the UFC. Neither person carries the kind of firepower you need to succeed here and while Potter is a good athlete for 205, at 265 he’s just not going to hit hard enough for how often I project him getting hit. Brz has even less of a shot because he doesn’t hit that hard and he doesn’t have big upside anywhere to balance out against how hittable he is.

This fight could just come down to who gets hit clean and hard first. Both fighters are gonna walk into it and both have been finished by strikes before, though Brz showed an incredible chin in his last fight. For me at nearly +350 I have to go with the value. Potter can fight for all 15 minutes, is a significantly more effortless fighter and isn’t going to be at much of a size disadvantage compared to the speed advantage I think he’ll have. What I’m most interested in is if Brz will grapple. While I didn’t see him go for takedowns on tape, some of his defensive grappling technique leads me to believe he has a decent grappling background and Potter absolutely can be taken down. Even then, I can’t take a fighter as hittable at over -300 odds. Potter is the pick.


Miller vs Lewis

This fight is a real shame. I think Lewis actually has solid potential, as much as a bricked up 5’4 bantamweight can at least. His striking is so fluid and comes from an incredible amount of angles. He clearly has a karate background with the way he explodes and darts but he’s transitioned it well having a relatively conventional though wide stance and not having as bad of defense as traditional martial arts converts tend to. He does leap into shots and can be flummoxed if pressed but outside of that he’s very powerful, has a hair trigger on all of his techniques and floats laterally very cleanly before sitting down into his attack.

That said he’s almost definitely getting washed here. Mo is also a monster athlete with ridiculous speed and some of the best wrestling I’ve seen at the weight class. I’m really not a fan of guys shooting in 2021. Not with how far standard takedown defense has come and the drawbacks if you’re stuffed. This guy isn’t getting stuffed though, at least not by Lewis. He chains too quickly, scrambles like he’s been wrestling all his life and can keep his foot on the pedal all the way through. I Love the way he incorporates his rides vs hunting for subs or getting out of position for strikes. He’s also weaponized the slam in a way I haven’t seen in a long time and can hit it over and over in all directions.

Potentially Lewis could get a KO here or snatch a sub, he’s a trained grappler and has excellent timing and technique on his explosive strikes. The reason I don’t think it’s happening though is how defensively aware Mo is. He stays firmly on the outside lurking to shoot. He’s a wrestling predator waiting for the moment his opponent gets heavy and blasts in lightning fast. This is especially bad for a guy like Lewis that really sinks down into his stance with every shot.

I see Mo getting in at some point, likely on a single and then either getting it down from there or chaining into the clinch. He’s just too fast and Lewis’s stance and footwork is too open for the takedown here. I really do hope I see him against a less quality opponent though as I really think Lewis has some potential.


Nasrudinov vs Almeida

There’s nothing I saw watching Nas that made me understand him being a big favorite here. I get he’s undefeated with a Russian name, but this guy is just really not that talented. He hangs at range and is decently measured from probing distance but his striking is so looping and predictable. His wrestling isn’t any more impressive. He dives singles and only sets it up with an overhand, not even a slick overhand, just an ugly lunging overhand. Outside of his distance management, his defense is really weak. He keeps his hands low, doesn’t move his head much and doesn’t have tight footwork. I do like his takedown defense, he’s got heavy, powerful hips and digs underhooks quickly but outside of that, I really don’t see what’s special about this guy. All of this is compounded by him being a middleweight sized and just not cutting weight. Not even a particularly athletic middleweight either. He’s got 3 rounds of cardio but he isn’t explosive, quick, incredibly strong or anything that I think will allow him to excel at LHW in the UFC.

On the other side of the card we have a real deal UFC LHW. Almeida is fucking huge, looks like he cuts a ton of weight and is very quick and powerful. There’s not a ton of footage out there due to the promotion he fights with and none of his fights going past the first round. What I can say is he’s gonna be putting Nas on the backfoot quick and I expect Nas to be the one wrestling here early. Almeida throws very quick, powerful kicks and has KO power in his hands plus a massive reach advantage. There’s no world I don’t see him shitkicking Nas on the feet, for at least the first round. Though I don’t think we’ll see that anyways.

Almeida wants to grapple but doesn’t have the takedown ability to take Nas to the floor and Nas isn’t gonna wanna stand with Almeida. I imagine he gets Almeida down by the virtue of Almeida wanting to grapple and inviting the work. That’s where it’s interesting to me though. Almeida is significantly bigger and with how garbage I think Nas’s entrances are, I could see Almeida stuffing takedowns and keeping it standing where I think he’ll have a decided advantage early. That said if it does go to the ground, we have a real wrestler vs BJJ battle on our hands. I almost always lean wrestler in those circumstance but again, I don’t think Nas is particularly talented and he was very nearly swept by a grappler levels below Almeida. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Almeida subbed him at any point or sweeped to GnP. You also can’t be shocked in these spots if the wrestler just rides out top position while the bottom sub hunts.

Ultimately though the only path I see for Nas here is Almeida gassing, which could happen. Nas has shown the ability to go 3 and Almeida basically never leaves the first round and is brolic as hell. It wouldn’t shock me to see Nas survive grappling early in dominant position and then take over as Almeida gasses. I’m not betting on it though, I’ll take the more physically gifted fighter with the massive BJJ upside here at plus money. Almeida is the play.

My bets -All 1U-

Mo + Jas @ +112

Potter @ +342

Almeida @ +162

Excellent analysis, the only fight I'd probably disagree on is Jasmine Vs Polastri, I just think Polastri is going to be right in her face all fight and Jasmine isn't going to like it. From the fights I've seen I think Jas likes it if she can dictate the action and Elise Reed was able to make life difficult for her by pushing the action and I think Polastri is significantly more aggressive than Elise.