My thoughts too - in a way, I still pick Yoel as the favorite in either a 3 rd or 5 rd but Weidman has a lot more of a chance in a 5 rd. Especially if he gets to rounds 4 and 5. Yoel is a really, really solid match-up for Weidman though, imo. Both boxer/ wrestlers with Yoel having more power, speed and better wrestling, Weidman does posses the better submission grappling though, as far as I'm aware.
I just don't see Weidmans path to victory clearly but obviously, I know what he'd need to do to gain it. Weidman would need to hurt Yoel on the feet or keep him at distance long enough to gain enough points standing but I just don't see it viably working well. If he doesn't hurt Yoel (it's obviously pretty possible) I think he gets clipped big time on the feet and he isn't gaining TDs to grind out rounds, especially not early. I see Yoel putting Weidman away tbh but I could be wrong obvs. Yoel maybe currently suspended but I think he's the favorite against anyone in the division, in my eyes.