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News Chris Curtis vs Rodolfo Viera, June 25

Kind of expected Curtis to have a stiffer matchup than this... he just KTFO'd Brendan Allen who many consider a borderline Top 15 guy. And before that he beat Phil Hawes who is a decent Middleweight (though sometimes slightly overhyped IMO).

I expect Chris to clean up here. He's way too much of a crafty veteran to fall prey to someone whose overall MMA game and fight IQ is still relatively infantile as that of Vieira. I really liked seeing the development of an accurate, crisp piston of a stiff jab into Rodolfo's game. That shit was absolutely on-point against Stoltzfus. However, despite that, Chris is still the vastly superior boxer of the two and Rodolfo looked quite uncomfortable on the feet even when he was winning the exchanges handily.

When it comes to grappling, obviously going to the mat with Vieira will be trouble. But in a career spanning 39 combined professional and amateur bouts, Curtis has been submitted only once and that was back in 2011. He's a BJJ Purple Belt and has three submission wins of his own. Rodolfo's fight with Fluffy showed that a seasoned fighter with sound defensive Jiu-Jitsu, good scrambles, and great awareness/composure is able to survive bad situations on the mat against him and weather the early storm. But I'm not even convinced the fight gets there, honestly -- Phil Hawes (decorated wrestler) and Brendan Allen (solid all-around offensive grappler) shot three takedowns each on Curtis and he stuffed every single one of them. He still has 100% TDD in the UFC and even in his pre-UFC career he was known for having pretty good defensive wrestling.

My only real concerns for the Action Man is that he's an undersized Middleweight (could easily make 170 and has many times in the past IIRC) fighting a gargantuan of a man who will be attempting to manhandle him in grappling exchanges -- not to mention the fact that Vieira also packs a decent punch when he wants to. But other than that, Curtis is better in every area that matters.

My pick is Action Man by KO/TKO Rd 3. Vieira is going to trade a few jabs with him early but be clearly shook of the stand-up when he starts getting slipped and countered. Rodolfo will promptly wrestle himself into exhaustion trying to unsuccessfully drag Curtis down and control him, constantly getting peppered with shots after every successful sprawl by Chris. There might be a tricky spot or two where he briefly succeeds and Chris has to fight off a submission attempt.

However, by the halfway point of Round 2 Rodolfo will be sucking air and Curtis is going to apply a lot of pressure with his boxing, walking him down, parrying/countering his jab, and stuffing his increasingly sloppy TDs before finishing him late. Using his fight IQ, weaponized cardio, defensive grappling, and pressure-boxing/counter-punching to win Decisions or score late KO/TKOs (based either on attrition or capitalizing on his opponents making mistakes) is actually more of what he's known for. Him being some early rounds knockout artist is a relatively new development.

Unfortunate, as I actually like Vieira way more than Curtis and have something of a (admittedly unfair) bias against the latter. I keep expecting him to get derailed. But Rodolfo ain't the guy to do it.
 
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Safton said:
Kind of expected Curtis to have a stiffer matchup than this... he just KTFO'd Brendan Allen who many consider a borderline Top 15 guy. And before that he beat Phil Hawes who is a decent Middleweight (though sometimes slightly overhyped IMO).

I expect Chris to clean up here. He's way too much of a veteran to fall prey to someone whose overall MMA game and cage sense is still relatively infantile like that of Vieira. I really liked seeing the development of an accurate, crisp piston of a jab into Rodolfo's game. That shit was absolutely on-point against Stoltzfus. However, despite that, Chris is still the vastly superior boxer of the two and Rodolfo still looked quite uncomfortable on the feet even when he was winning the exchanges handily.

When it comes to grappling, obviously going to the mat with Vieira will be trouble. But in a fight spanning 39 combined professional and amateur bouts, Curtis has been submitted only once back in 2011. He's a BJJ Purple Belt and has three submission wins of his own. The fight with Fluffy showed that a veteran with sound defensive Jiu-Jitsu, good scrambles, and great awareness is able to survive bad situations on the mat against Rodolfo and weather the early storm. But I'm not even convinced the fight gets there, honestly -- Phil Hawes (decorated wrestler) and Brendan Allen (solid all-around offensive grappler) shot three takedowns each on Curtis stuffed every single one of them. He still has 100% TDD in the UFC and even in his pre-UFC career he was known for having solid defensive wrestling.

My only real concerns for the Action Man is that he's an undersized Middleweight (could easily make 170 and has many times in the past IIRC) fighting a gargantuan of a man who will be attempting to manhandle him in grappling exchanges -- not to mention the fact that Vieira also packs a decent punch when he wants to. But other than that, Curtis is better in every area that matters.

Action Man by KO/TKO Rd 3. Vieira is going to trade a few jabs with him early but be clearly shook of the stand-up before wrestling himself into exhaustion trying to unsuccessfully drag Curtis down and hold him down. There might be a tricky spot or two where he briefly succeeds and Chris has to fight off a submission attempt. However, by the halfway point of Round 2 Rodolfo will be sucking air and Curtis is going to apply a lot of pressure with his boxing, walking him down, parrying/countering his jab, and stuffing his increasingly bad TDs before finishing him late. Using his fight IQ, weaponized cardio, defensive grappling, and pressure-boxing to win Decisions or score late KO/TKOs (based either on attrition or capitalizing on his opponents making mistakes) is actually more of what he's known for. Him being some early rounds knockout artist is a relatively new development.

Unfortunate, as I actually like Vieira way more than Curtis and have something of a (admittedly unfair) bias against the latter. I keep expecting him to get derailed. But Rodolfo ain't the guy to do it.
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Good analysis but I don't think Hawes really tried to take Curtis down. He threatened a takedown but it seemed he preferred to keep it standing. He bailed on the shot really early rather than committing to it.
I don't remember Allen's takedown attempts tbh
 
Sticko said:
Good analysis but I don't think Hawes really tried to take Curtis down. He threatened a takedown but it seemed he preferred to keep it standing. He bailed on the shot really early rather than committing to it.
I don't remember Allen's takedown attempts tbh
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I didn't remember them either, but he's officially credited with three. I don't think it takes much for the UFC statisticians to throw one on the fighter's record, honestly -- I've seen them do it when a fighter simply initiates a body-lock and/or level-changes briefly in what seems like more of a feint than a committed attempt to get the fight to the ground.

So I just rewatched the fight and the "takedown attempts" were as follows:
  • At about 4:03 Phil shoots in on Curtis's hips and drives him to the cage before letting go of him immediately. Curiously he didn't really attempt to fire anything off the break nor did he commit to the TD despite seemingly having the opportunity to do either, so either he didn't like the feel of this position or was just setting the tone for Chris to make him respect the threat of the takedown.
  • At 2:28 he dips down to secure a double-leg against the cage, but releases it and attempts to immediately grab a single-collar tie on Curtis who instinctively lowered levels slightly to defend the TD, at which point Hawes threw an upward knee that barely missed his head.
  • At about 1:35 he changes levels and does a half-hearted knee tap before immediately coming back up to throw a looping punch at his Curtis. You see Gaethje do the same thing from time to time (which is about the closest thing you'll ever see to Justin wrestling offensively in the modern era lol).
And for what it's worth, DC was on commentary and said he felt like Hawes was beating Chris to his hips on the shots but letting the TDs go specifically because he wanted to strike with the threat of the takedown. So yeah, I'd say you're right.

As for Allen, though, I absolutely remember him desperately trying to take Curtis down and failing. Not each specific time, but I do remember it happening during the bout. That memory is seared into my brain as a fan of Brendan because it was the first point at which a little voice in the back of my head started to go Ohhhh fuuuuck alongside the dude feeling himself way too much on the feet and getting visibly overconfident.
 
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Viera isn't the same without his vitamins.
 
markys00 said:
Bit of a silly comment commenting on grappling skills when it was clearly a cardio issue
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I think Viera should take this and he has the tools to do it but man did he ever choke against Hernandez, very surprised he gassed that hard. I hope that's a one off because I'm a fan of Viera.
 
Substance Abuse said:
Viera has a good five minutes here. If Viera fails on TDs early, Curtis is going to probably knock him out.
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It depends on how much curtis respects the threat of the takedown. He did nothing for like 4 minutes while facing hawes just out of respect of the takedown. This will be interesting while it lasts.
 
Thought Curtis was going to get a top 15 guy after the back to back performances against Allen and Hawes. Pretty lateral move for him here. Dangerous fight as well
 
FlamingSamurai said:
You guys are massively underestimating the value of world class BJJ
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Guys with legitimate world class BJJ pedigrees have failed to translate it into success in MMA before. It's not an argument unto itself.

markys00 said:
Bit of a silly comment commenting on grappling skills when it was clearly a cardio issue
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The issue with this argument is twofold:

1.) Vieira successfully took Fluffy down three times in the first round when he was fresh, both guys were dry, and was able to control him for three and a half minutes... yet he wasn't able to close the show. Took him down twice more in the second round. He exhausted himself for zero gain. And this is against a guy who at the time was a Purple Belt (now a relatively newly-minted Brown Belt) who has been outgrappled & submitted multiple times across his professional & amateur MMA career.

2.) Chris Curtis is absolutely a guy willing and able to make you work and tire you out. That's a big part of what he was known for prior to coming to the UFC: attrition-based victories.

fortheo said:
It depends on how much curtis respects the threat of the takedown. He did nothing for like 4 minutes while facing hawes just out of respect of the takedown. This will be interesting while it lasts.
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I suspect the threat of the takedown absolutely played a role, but Curtis being a slow-starter or fighting off the back foot at first is far from unheard of. He's been known to come on strong as a fight goes on or wait and make reads, so I wouldn't read too much into it.

IneedSometop said:
Thought Curtis was going to get a top 15 guy after the back to back performances against Allen and Hawes. Pretty lateral move for him here. Dangerous fight as well
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Yeah. IMO this a step back. Hawes was held in high regard by many as a prospect and most see Allen as a borderline Top 15 guy. Finishing both early and then getting Vieira is strange.
 
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