ChatGPT predictions on Khamzat vs DDP

[PEDRO IVO RUSSO MIRANDA]

I inserted characteristics of both fighters and did not include their names in order to maintain the neutrality of the analysis.

A is Khamzat, B is DuPlessis.

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Fight Breakdown: Fighter A vs Fighter B (5 Rounds, 25 Minutes)​

This is a highly volatile matchup — both fighters carry high finishing potential but in very different ways. A brings explosive takedowns and crushing top pressure, while B thrives in chaos, with unpredictable timing and wild striking that often looks cartoonish but lands.

Round-by-Round, Minute-by-Minute​

Round 1 (0:00 – 5:00)​

0:00–1:30

• Fighter A shoots almost immediately — insanely low level, near impossible to counter with knees or uppers.
• High probability of landing the takedown (~70%).
• If A gets it: top pressure, ground-and-pound, transition threats (RNC, arm-triangle).
• If B sprawls: clinch scramble → on the break, B can sneak in a wild elbow, overhand, or spinning shot.

Finishing probability (mid-R1):

• Fighter A: ~35%
• Fighter B: ~5%

1:30–3:00

• If grounded, B already burning energy defending.
• If standing, B starts throwing weird combos and “collisions” that can catch A by surprise.
• Risk: B’s chaos leaves him open to a heavy counter.

Finishing probability (end-R1):

• Fighter A: ~45%
• Fighter B: ~10%

3:00–5:00

• A could finish early via GNP or submission if the fight stays down.
• If still standing, B grows slightly into the round but remains under heavy threat.

Finishing probability (end-R1):

• Fighter A: ~45%
• Fighter B: ~15%

Summary R1: Strongly favors A (explosive TDs, control). B only dangerous in chaotic scrambles/breaks.

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Round 2 (5:00 – 10:00)​

5:00–7:00

• A’s explosiveness slightly lower but still a strong TD threat.
• Early takedown = repeat of R1.
• B starts to find rhythm, still risky if he opens too much.

Finishing probability (mid-R2):

• Fighter A: ~30%
• Fighter B: ~10%

7:00–10:00

• If B has survived, he ramps up activity.
• Weird collisions and looping shots start landing more.
• A still dangerous, but each TD attempt drains more gas.

Finishing probability (end-R2):

• Fighter A: ~25%
• Fighter B: ~20%

Summary R2: More balanced. A still has big finishing upside; B’s KO threat begins to rise.

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Round 3 (10:00 – 15:00)​

10:00–12:30

• A’s cardio drop becomes a factor.
• B pressures forward, throwing awkward but effective combos.
• Danger: if B overcommits, A’s power counter is still live.

Finishing probability (mid-R3):

• Fighter A: ~15%
• Fighter B: ~25%

12:30–15:00

• Likely an all-action brawl.
• B gains momentum, higher chance of TKO/KO by volume or odd-angle shot.
• A still dangerous with one clean bomb.

Finishing probability (end-R3):

• Fighter A: ~10%
• Fighter B: ~35%

Summary R3: Momentum swings to B. A has mostly puncher’s chance left.

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Round 4 (15:00 – 20:00)​

15:00–17:30

• B loose, confident, pushing the pace.
• A still tries for takedowns but with much less explosion.
• Volume of B starts to overwhelm.

Finishing probability (mid-R4):

• Fighter A: ~5%
• Fighter B: ~40%

17:30–20:00

• A likely on survival mode.
• B landing cleaner, potential for stoppage by accumulation or a random big strike.

Finishing probability (end-R4):

• Fighter A: ~5%
• Fighter B: ~50%

Summary R4: B’s round to dominate. A mostly surviving, not imposing.

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Round 5 (20:00 – 25:00)​

20:00–22:30

• B fully in control if it reaches here.
• A still dangerous with a single counter, but fading badly.

Finishing probability (mid-R5):

• Fighter A: ~5%
• Fighter B: ~55%

22:30–25:00

• B either finds a late finish (volume or chaos KO), or coasts to decision.
• A’s only realistic path is a miracle takedown → sub.

Finishing probability (end-R5):

• Fighter A: ~5%
• Fighter B: ~60%

Summary R5: Clearly favors B. A nearly spent, Hail Mary mode.

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Outcome Probabilities (Estimated)​

• Fighter A Win:
  
  • Early GNP/Sub (R1–R2): ~40%
  • Counter KO later: ~10%
• Fighter B Win:
  
  • KO/TKO from chaos (R2–R5): ~35%
  • Late sub from scramble: ~5%
• Decision (Either Side): ~10%
  
  • A if he banked early rounds with control.
  • B if he outlasts and pours volume late.

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Overall Picture​

• R1–R2: A’s danger zone — blast double, crushing top game, real finishing chances.
• R3–R5: B’s chaos grows exponentially, especially if A slows.
• Both are double-edged: A’s blitz leaves him open if stuffed, B’s wildness leaves him open to a nuke counter.

This is one of those fights where both men have huge finishing equity — less likely to go the distance than not.

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what's you think about ? And what's your pick for that figth ?

 

[Contempt]

That's actually not a terrible analysis...

AI... goddamn.

 

[rightfight777]

I think there is some accuracy in this you should try it and add epo and blood doping for khamzat lol.

 

[octagonation]

lol.

Alot of people don´t factor in the amount of heart Khamzat has shown against Burns.

I don´t see him gassing that hard with such a heart he will always come forward whether it is in the 4th or 5th.

If anything Khamzat showed that he is not a front runner

 

[Luffy]

I like fighter B (aka DDP) chances more. I think it's unlikely Chimaev would finish him in round 1. DDP is gonna be prepared for that fully, and he is very tough when taken down — building base, hip posture making it hard to back mount, having the cardio to be hand fighting... And he is very strong, which isn't something Khamzat's faced. It isn't simply someone's size (like muscles), DDP is just very strong and tough. I think he survives round 1 like Usman or even better — likely gets up at the end of the round. By round 2, I think Chimaev may still win some frames and drag him down, but the optics would start shifting. And by round 3 to 5, I think Dricus takes it over and gets a ~ round 4 TKO or a 3-2 / 4-1 UD.

Pretty much how I see an Alex Pereira vs Tom Aspinall or a JJ vs Tom as well. Tom has a bigger chance in the earliest rounds, mostly round 1 with his fast attacks... With JJ by striking, with Alex, by dragging Alex down and g&p the shit outta him... but I think, much like with DDP here, Alex Pereira's TDD shown over and over, plus their toughness, as well as their five rounds experience and constant activity, make a round 1 or 2 finish less likely... And makes it more likely that the fast sprinters that go head hunting in round 1 like a Chimaev or Tom, end up drowning mid to late fight when they see their offense wasn't enough, when facing someone who's also very skilled, calculated, well studied to make the right move and technical as well as tough as nails. These fighters who go all out in round 1 end up burning a lot of energy in the initial onslaught attempt... they get more anxious when it doesn't work... And the fighter used to fight at an elite but proven-level in 25 minutes vs also elite opponents, plus being more active rather than being a year plus without fighting, have a bigger tendency to take over past round 1/2 and get a UD or a late round stoppage. Specially since DDP is young, hungry and elite too. Chimaev has this predictable pattern of going for the kill in round 1. His striking, while good, lacks the strength and the layered range that the offense of DDP offers... As well as lacking the cardio DDP has shown in drawn out fights. So the lack of a round 5 fight, with Chimaev never getting past round 3 and gassing vs Usman in a 3 rounds fight, to me is telling for a five rounds fight vs someone who's also elite, huge in cardio and has an awkward but effective striking. Those spinning kicks, spinning elbows, front kicks to the body DDP showed vs Sean Strickland being a testament that he is very calculated... And that his unorthodox striking remember that creativity of a Jon Jones...

 

[Kung Fu Kowboy]

We'll find out tonight if Skynet is the new Chael

 

[PEDRO IVO RUSSO MIRANDA]

I like fighter B (aka DDP) chances more. I think it's unlikely Chimaev would finish him in round 1. DDP is gonna be prepared for that fully, and he is very tough when taken down — building base, hip posture making it hard to back mount, he has the cardio to be hand fighting... And he is very strong, which isn't something Khamzat's faced. It isn't simply someone's size (like muscles), DDP is just very strong and tough. I think he survives round 1 like Usman or even better — likely gets up at the end of the round. By round 2, I think Chimaev may still win some frames and drag him down but the optics would start shifting. And by round 3 to 5, I think Dricus takes it over and gets a ~ round 4 TKO or a 3-2 or 4-1 UD.

Pretty much how I see Alex Pereira vs Tom Aspinall too. Tom has an early chance in round 1 with his fast attacks but mostly, in dragging Alex down and g&p, but I think, much like with DDP here, their TDs and toughness as well as five rounds experience and constant activity makes that less likely... And makes it more likely that the fast sprinters that goes head hunting in round 1 like a Chimaev or Tom ends up drowning mid to late fight when they see their offense wasn't enough by facing someone who's also very skilled, calculated, well studied to make the right move and just tough as nails. These fighters who go all out in round 1 ends up burning a lot of energy in the initial onslaught attempt, they get more anxious when it doesn't work... And the fighter used to fight at an elite but proven-level in 25 minutes vs also elite opponents and are more active, has a tendency to take over past round 1/2 and get a UD or a late round stoppage. Chimaev has this predictable pattern of going for the kill in round 1. His striking, while good, lacks the strength the offense of DDP has, and he lacks the cardio DDP has shown in drawn out fights. So the lack of a round 5 fights, with Chimaev never getting past round 3 and gassing vs Usman in a 3 rounds fight, to me is telling to a five round fight vs someone who's also elite, huge cardio and an awkward but effective striking. Those spinning kicks, spinning elbows, front kicks to the body DDP showed vs Sean being a testament that he is very calculated... And that his unorthodox striking remember that creativity of a Jon Jones...

One thing I added to the prompt is that B (DDP) have the advantage on the feet, and moves awkwardly.
but A(Khamzat) have really strong and fast straight punches.

I'm also picking DDP by interruption (KO/TKO/SUB) Round 4.
I think R1 and R2 are probably Khamzat best moments.

 

[RockyLockridge]

lol.

Alot of people don´t factor in the amount of heart Khamzat has shown against Burns.

Dricus has more heart. He's shown it too. They are equals here at worst.

I can see dricus winning 3 or 4 ways. Khamzat only 1

 

[PEDRO IVO RUSSO MIRANDA]

lol.

Alot of people don´t factor in the amount of heart Khamzat has shown against Burns.

I don´t see him gassing that hard with such a heart he will always come forward whether it is in the 4th or 5th.

If anything Khamzat showed that he is not a front runner

I have to point out in the prompt that A (Khamzat) brings insane pressure, probably one of the strongest early round we’ve ever seen, but it tends to drop off as the fight progresses.
Meanwhile, B (DDP) is very durable and experienced in longer fights.


I felt the AI leaned heavily on that factor, and at times it almost seemed like it was trying to find ways for B to beat A.
I tried to adjust it with some additional instructions.
For example adding that A’s insane pressure also tires his opponents, who either get finished or enter the next round even more exhausted than him
The AI won’t provide a 100% accurate prediction, of course, but I found the analysis interesting and agree with many of its points.

 

[Luffy]

Dricus has more heart. He's shown it too. They are equals here at worst.

Yeah, they both have big hearts. But like you said , DDP has proven cardio to hang in there, as well as proven toughness to go through deep waters for 5 rounds. When a fighter tries too hard to finish as soon as possible and is faced against someone who's also elite and who will sacrifice heavily not to tap, then the more active, also elite but with proven, tested cardio and toughness in drawn out fights, is more likely to get the win for me. Jones vs Reyes, too... Reyes couldn't keep it after round 2/3. Or Khalil Rountree vs Pereira, Khalil was in a 6 win streak in which he was smashing his opponents with huge power and speed... His speed and power from a certain moment after he got back was just TKO'ing every opponent quickly. Vs Pereira, Pereira's toughness, patience, grit, equally big heart, and an also constant elite + willingness to be the best... that proved to be too much in an elite striking battle. Khalil, an elite and huge power puncher, proved his heart is that of a DDP, a Jiri, a Chimaev, a JJ wtv there by not folding even when his eye went blind... though it was his first time there in a drawn out fight vs an also big power puncher , elite striker, with an equally big heart who had been there, in those pressure situations, many times...

Adesanya is elite... But Adesanya also had a tendency to be overly emotional and to seek fights himself like when he went to the octagon with DDP to call him out... That lack of "being more stoic and focused to control emotions" in those situations, when DDP was having his moment after a big win for him vs Whittaker (like Topuria showed to have it — focus and control — when he got called by Holloway in the UFC 300 but said "no, it's his moment" ), ends up taxing and drifting their focus amidst fights as well... while more stoic fighters generally feel that adrenaline as a chilled focus and boost, without needing to go on shitting on someone's moment.