Cereal Gain the favorite?

[Banana Tree's Nemesis]

That's what I'm saying. Guys who are successful using a grappling heavy approach earlier in their career are forced to adapt to a more striking or clinching based approach later in their career because their bodies are not capable of enduring the grueling training and trauma required to sustain elite wrestling. Specifically knee, back and neck injuries accumulate and they wind up doing a lot more boxing and shooting less takedowns.

If they do not make this adjustment they wind up injured. Cain Velasquez for example.

People are different so it won't happen at the same exact age for every guy, but generally somewhere in the 30s depending on weight class and how many fights they have had.

Examples:
Hendo
Yoel Romero
Rampage
Fedor
Jones
Jose Aldo
RDA
Usman

Fans tend to lump in the grappling success earlier in the fighters career with the increasingly rare glimpses of it later in their career and lump it all together in one wide brushstroke.

Jon Jones manhandled everyone he faced in his early 20s. For a stretch of time his opponents couldn't even survive his onslaught and guys like Matushenko, Bader, Brandon Vera and Shogun were just blown out of the water from Jon's grappling and ground and pound.

Compare that to Jon's fights in his 30s and the vast majority of time in those fights were contested on the feet. The fights were he did manage to get control time he was only able to do it in the later rounds when his opponents were tired.

Jon has not scored a takedown in rounds 1 or 2 in his 30s. The last time he had a TD before R3 was 8 years ago in the first DC fight.

Jones rounds 1-3, since turning 30:

Reyes 0/4 TD 15 s control
Santos 0/1 TD 0 control time (whole fight)
Smith 1/4 TD 5:45 control
Gus 1/5 TD 1:29 control
DC 0/3 no control time (whole fight)

Jon was able to dominate Anthony Smith on the ground in rounds 3,4,5. It will be 4 years from that fight 3/2/19 to the Gane fight 3/4/23.


Maybe Jon will be able to successfully use wrestling to beat Cyryl Gane. It would be extremely impressive if he pulls that off. Jon has always had a tremendous chin, I tend to believe he will need it to get deep enough into the fight where he is more likely to be successful taking Gane down.

I would say we agree for the most part.
I think it's very hard to judge, because many factors play into a fighting style. Age is certainly one of them.
But I think there are other things as well. Adaption to 5 round fights, comfortability while striking, more cautious opponents at high ranks, are a couple of the ones that come to my mind.
All these things have high correlation with higher age of fighters.

Just like Teixeira, Jon has a very bread and butter grappling approach. Whereas Gane seems to follow a more modern guard playing approach. I think Jon's size gets underestimated. With his current physique he's a natural HW just like Gane. Cyril isn't that big. He comes in quite a bit under 265. I think if it does go to the ground, Jon will absolutely smash him.
That leaves of course the everlasting question if the grappler can get the striker down on the mat.

 

[jeff7b9]

I would say we agree for the most part.
I think it's very hard to judge, because many factors play into a fighting style. Age is certainly one of them.
But I think there are other things as well. Adaption to 5 round fights, comfortability while striking, more cautious opponents at high ranks, are a couple of the ones that come to my mind.
All these things have high correlation with higher age of fighters.

Just like Teixeira, Jon has a very bread and butter grappling approach. Whereas Gane seems to follow a more modern guard playing approach. I think Jon's size gets underestimated. With his current physique he's a natural HW just like Gane. Cyril isn't that big. He comes in quite a bit under 265. I think if it does go to the ground, Jon will absolutely smash him.
That leaves of course the everlasting question if the grappler can get the striker down on the mat.

If Jon can get Gane down and keep him there I agree, based on what we have seen of both, Jon fucks him up.

I'm curious how much Gane has improved his ground game since the Ngannou fight. He strikes me as an intelligent guy and I expect him to have at least worked pretty hard at fixing that issue, but Jon Jones has been wrestling his whole life, Gane has not.

Getting the fight to the ground, I believe is a substantial challenge for Jon. Cyryl is significantly bigger than Jon's past opponents and he moves very well.

Since Jon beat Shogun I have never felt like Jon Jones was not going to win a fight he was booked in. But this matchup pushes the envelope for that belief.

Jon fist won the title in March 2011. Almost 12 years before this fight will take place. Jon is a freak, but 12 years at the top of the fight game is damn near impossible. Joe Louis held the HW boxing title for just shy of 12 years 11 years in between his first and last title wins. Muhammed Ali won his first title fight vs Sonny Liston and his last title fight against Leon Spinks 14 years apart. That is elite company Jon is trying to join.

 

[Jarvan]

What evidence do we have to indicate that Cejudo is a great coach?

Training an already elite fighter Devison to squeak past Moreno or training already elite Weili to a decision loss against Rose?

There's a reason why the elite chose to work with Henry over others.
Not gonna argue if he's the best, but champions don't become champs on accident. Weili and Deivson decided to base their camp in Arizona for a reason. And now you have arguably the best fighter in the world that chose to work with Henry. Being an olympic/ufc champ also helps his credibility.

 

[nately]

Gane should be the favorite. Jones is the slight favorite (-130) from what I've seen.

 

[Jarvan]

That leaves of course the everlasting question if the grappler can get the striker down on the mat.

We're looking to see how much Cereal has improved his grappling; did he learn from the Ngannou fight? Is he able to adapt enough to prove he's champ material? Is he simply a bad match up for Jon?
Looking at Jons track record, he had the most trouble with fighters who were also long and as tall as he is.

On the other hand, how much of vintage Jon do we see with an extra 40-50lbs on his frame?
How much did it change his speed and style?

Lots of reasons to be excited for this matchup

 

[Dude Incredible]

Name Brand Sweet Stuff: Cinnamon Toast Crunch.
Malt-o-Meal: Mashmallow Mateys

Worth noting:
Will eat: Random organic naturally sweet puffs.

 

[Senzo Tanaka]

Picking Gane just because he's basically a bigger, faster and stronger version of Jones. I think he has better footwork too. Jones' biggest strength though is fight IQ.

I do wonder though. Will the layoff motivate him? Will the added size give him power or make him slow? Part of me is rooting for Jones just because he feels like a legit underdog to me and despite him being a sociopath, I can't deny his talent and that would be a hell of a resume.

 

[BoxingMMA]

Logic will tell you Jones has lost twice or at least once out of three very close fights, even if you are the worst of scorers you have to give Jones the one loss vs Reyes, it takes the worst of nutthuggers to think jones actually won the three fights vs gus, Reyes and one legged santos, those are the kind of people that are ok with him cheating and all that nonsense

Since I believe Gane is significantly more difficult to fight against than any of those three guys, jones having trouble against that style and size and the fact that he hasn’t fought in a while, it makes sense for gane to be a favorite, I think a decision by gane is the most likely outcome, or rather, a domination by gane but still jones getting the decision as always.

Me personally though, I think Gane is overrated and I think Jones will be very dangerous at HW, so my head says Gane but my instinct says jones

 

[azhiker]

Even though jones is undefeated*, he hasn't been in the cage in awhile
Ring rust is real, and I think Jon may be too used to sparring rather than full on fighting
But Henry isn't a dumb dude and think he's actually a great coach.

I got Cereal Gain via decision

Who do you flavor

I'll one up you. By TKO. Jon getting that money and a runnin'...

 

[whocares]

I believe Jones will be at a strength and speed disadvantage. I don't believe he has any discernible striking advantage over Gane, I don't think he has a better chin than Tuivasa and I'm not buying all this wrestling talk that he's going to pin Gane to the canvas for extended periods of time and grind out rounds. And yet, I can still see Jon getting the W because that's what he does. He will come in with a great gameplan and he will execute it, I just don't know if that's going to be enough. Jones also has a major experience deficit at HW that Gane does not but the flipside is Jones is literally fighting to cement GOAT status and he knows it. Then there's the company angle where of course it makes more scents and dollars for Jones to win so if it goes to scorecards, well, they've already got 4 rounds scored for Jones.

 

[RockyLockridge]

It's Cyril Gane. But of course we know you wanted to try to be funny and call him Cereal Gane. Lamest joke ever.

Anyway, Jones by being better at every aspect of MMA. But I know there is always a chance of Gane winning, slight chance IMO.

I don't think you could be more wrong jones is going tonhave a hard time getting gane down and gane will destroy jones on the feet with low kicks

 

[IDGETKTFO]

Cereal Gone's ground game agains't Nagannou was so terrible, I can't pick him regardless of Jon Jones ring rust and move to HW. Lets be real, If ring rust is real for Jones, its going to be his striking, not his grappling. Cereal Gone better have improved his ground game since Ngannou or he is getting slept on for 5 rounds.

 

[BEATDOWNS]

Even though jones is undefeated*, he hasn't been in the cage in awhile
Ring rust is real, and I think Jon may be too used to sparring rather than full on fighting
But Henry isn't a dumb dude and think he's actually a great coach.

I got Cereal Gain via decision

Who do you flavor

Cereal Gane nah your looking for Surreal Gane.

 

[HHJ]

Cereal Gane nah your looking for Surreal Gane.

Surreal Gain?

 

[Raptors2019]

I agree I think Cereal jon jones will do great in his come back fight.

 

[Juice]

I don't think you could be more wrong jones is going tonhave a hard time getting gane down and gane will destroy jones on the feet with low kicks

I don't think you can be more wrong because I know you are wrong. Jones is going to beat Gane by anything he wants.

Gane TDD is not the best. Ngannou was taking Gane down at will. Jones is a much better than wrestler than Ngannou.

Jones will keep Gane at a distance with his reach and murder Gane with kicks all over. Jones kicking game is some of the best ever in MMA. No one has better oblique kicks than Jones, no one.

 

[RockyLockridge]

I don't think you can be more wrong because I know you are wrong. Jones is going to beat Gane by anything he wants.

Gane TDD is not the best. Ngannou was taking Gane down at will. Jones is a much better than wrestler than Ngannou.

Jones will keep Gane at a distance with his reach and murder Gane with kicks all over. Jones kicking game is some of the best ever in MMA. No one has better oblique kicks than Jones, no one.

I'll sig av or account bet you that gane wins.

 

[Kyojiro Kagenuma]

Even though jones is undefeated*, he hasn't been in the cage in awhile
Ring rust is real, and I think Jon may be too used to sparring rather than full on fighting
But Henry isn't a dumb dude and think he's actually a great coach.

I got Cereal Gain via decision

Who do you flavor

If you're gonna make fun of his name, shouldn't it be Cereal Gone? Cause that's what it sounds like.

 

[Kyojiro Kagenuma]

I'll sig av or account bet you that gane wins.

What is an account bet?

 

[CashMoney1991]

the odds keep going back n forth, Gane should be the favorite, Jones has been out for 3 years and hasn't looked dominant in ages, Gane by UD, younger Jones would for sure win