Economy CBC: "this is not the jobs report of a weak economy"

Andy Capp said:
Well, that latter part is precisely why I argue the Bank of Canada has waited too long to reduce interest rates.

Edit: we take far too many international students. The reliance upon them for revenue is a bad thing. And there's no good evidence that I've see that they remain in Canada after they finish school so they're kind of irrelevant to long term growth as far as I know.
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A huge number don't. The schools have gotten greedy and treat them as cash cows. They don't even care how well the students do or if they go to class. Everyone passes but don't know their head from their ass. My friend is a Prof and has shared many stories. It's business he was told. The actual education part is a distant second sadly.
 
jimjamjammer said:
A huge number don't. The schools have gotten greedy and treat them as cash cows. They don't even care how well the students do or if they go to class. Everyone passes but don't know their head from their ass. My friend is a Prof and has shared many stories. It's business he was told. The actual education part is a distant second sadly.
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This is maybe 2 year old info now, but the last I heard U of T is 40% international students FFS. Ridiculous.
 
Andy Capp said:
This is maybe 2 year old info now, but the last I heard U of T is 40% international students FFS. Ridiculous.
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It might be 2 years old but it still happens is the point. Look at Cape Breton University, 76 percent international students.
 
In March we lost 2.2k jobs, but April we gained 90k?

Yeah I’ll take these stats with a grain of salt. Looks like a made up stat to keep interest rates high.
 
Andy Capp said:
Perhaps, but I'm not arguing that just because I don't like it. I think raising the interest rates in the first place did very little good and a lot of harm because one knock-on effect from the pandemic was a very large number of people with lots of savings due to not having any place to spend them. In the US, rates came down fairly quickly, consumers spent lavishly, and the economy recovered faster than any other nation on Earth, pretty much. Canada, on the other hand, kept rates high and as a result, as of the last count I saw, Canadians have a cumulative $75 billion in savings right now. I presume the reason they're being tight with money is the uncertain future of the economy with such high interest rates in play.

Do you have a better reason for the difference between the results in Canada and the US?
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What rate came down faster in the US than Canada? I believe the current prime rate in the US is higher than Canada? The DRR rate is lower in the US but thats up to lenders. But to me it comes down to US opening up their economy way sooner, much stronger domestic investment, way stronger job growth, less rapid immigration, way better housing prices.
 
Andy Capp said:
This is maybe 2 year old info now, but the last I heard U of T is 40% international students FFS. Ridiculous.
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Lol, no. 26% which is on par with the rest of major Universities in Canada. Colleges i think are the biggest culprits as a percentage.
 
UFCUCF said:
This is bulls*it! How dare the Canadians have good economic news. They have clearly done this just to get Biden re-elected.
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It's interesting how many rightist lunatics here are Canadian. I had no idea. Kind of explains a little. Like that jimjam creature was freaking out about people noticing that the U.S. economy was good, but Canada isn't the U.S., and our economy has been *much* better than Canada's since the pandemic.
 
Andy Capp said:
Perhaps, but I'm not arguing that just because I don't like it. I think raising the interest rates in the first place did very little good and a lot of harm because one knock-on effect from the pandemic was a very large number of people with lots of savings due to not having any place to spend them. In the US, rates came down fairly quickly, consumers spent lavishly, and the economy recovered faster than any other nation on Earth, pretty much. Canada, on the other hand, kept rates high and as a result, as of the last count I saw, Canadians have a cumulative $75 billion in savings right now. I presume the reason they're being tight with money is the uncertain future of the economy with such high interest rates in play.

Do you have a better reason for the difference between the results in Canada and the US?
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Are you talking about interest rates or inflation rates?

I don't have the comparisons to Canada at the ready, but interest rates in the US haven't come down, and the inflation target was 2% before lowering interest rates, and haven't been below 3% in over 3 years and are already rising again, so saying they "came down fairly quickly" is like driving 120mph in a 25mph school zone then slowing down to 50mph and pretend it's time to hit the accelerator again.

Our jobs numbers have missed and unemployment has climbed for several reports in a row, inflation and gdp have both missed, inflation has outpaced wages over the last 3 years and part time jobs have outpaced full time jobs for like a year. The "spending lavishly" is maxing out high interest credit cards and having to take a 2nd job.

We also have a ludicrous housing market when tons of buyers fled locked down blue states and people could see the writing on the wall with inflation and bought homes before the interest rates spiked, so now we have the highest home prices on record with the highest mortgage rates in decades, so not that many buyers even qualify at these prices and rates, but institutions paying cash still can.

Our stock market ate shit last month and is now pumping again on "rate cut hopes" because the fed now have to choose between cutting rates and letting inflation fly away again, or keeping them high and watching unemployment continue to climb, and several big companies have announced that they're cutting jobs and doing stock buybacks and paying investor dividends.



Americans' credit card balances climbed to a new record high $1.13 trillion, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Credit card debt increased by $50 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, a 4.6% jump from the previous quarter.

The data on credit card debt comes as total household debt rose by $212 billion to reach $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the New York Fed's latest "Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit."


In December, 22 million Americans chose to work part time, an all-time high, Labor Department figures show. That’s 13.9% of all workers.
 
Jack V Savage said:
It's interesting how many rightist lunatics here are Canadian. I had no idea. Kind of explains a little. Like that jimjam creature was freaking out about people noticing that the U.S. economy was good, but Canada isn't the U.S., and our economy has been *much* better than Canada's since the pandemic.
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That was a secondary point in posting the thread. If our economic news is somewhat good, how much better is the economy in the US when its recovery started earlier and has outpaced Canada's but a large margin?
 
nostradumbass said:
Are you talking about interest rates or inflation rates?

I don't have the comparisons to Canada at the ready, but interest rates in the US haven't come down, and the inflation target was 2% before lowering interest rates, and haven't been below 3% in over 3 years and are already rising again, so saying they "came down fairly quickly" is like driving 120mph in a 25mph school zone then slowing down to 50mph and pretend it's time to hit the accelerator again.

Our jobs numbers have missed and unemployment has climbed for several reports in a row, inflation and gdp have both missed, inflation has outpaced wages over the last 3 years and part time jobs have outpaced full time jobs for like a year. The "spending lavishly" is maxing out high interest credit cards and having to take a 2nd job.

We also have a ludicrous housing market when tons of buyers fled locked down blue states and people could see the writing on the wall with inflation and bought homes before the interest rates spiked, so now we have the highest home prices on record with the highest mortgage rates in decades, so not that many buyers even qualify at these prices and rates, but institutions paying cash still can.

Our stock market ate shit last month and is now pumping again on "rate cut hopes" because the fed now have to choose between cutting rates and letting inflation fly away again, or keeping them high and watching unemployment continue to climb, and several big companies have announced that they're cutting jobs and doing stock buybacks and paying investor dividends.



Americans' credit card balances climbed to a new record high $1.13 trillion, according to data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Credit card debt increased by $50 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 alone, a 4.6% jump from the previous quarter.

The data on credit card debt comes as total household debt rose by $212 billion to reach $17.5 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the New York Fed's latest "Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit."


In December, 22 million Americans chose to work part time, an all-time high, Labor Department figures show. That’s 13.9% of all workers.
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Fair enough. I'll look into this further when I have more time.
 
pv3Hpv3p said:
Unemployment rate and employed rate stayed the same and most of the jobs are part time.

I'm not sure having to get a second job is an indicator of a good economy.
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Our headlines either leave that out, or say "more people are choosing part time work", like they're doing it for enjoyment because housewives just find it fulfilling to drive around town in their minivan to pick up shit from McDonald's to drop on people's porches for $6.
 
Jack V Savage said:
It's interesting how many rightist lunatics here are Canadian. I had no idea. Kind of explains a little. Like that jimjam creature was freaking out about people noticing that the U.S. economy was good, but Canada isn't the U.S., and our economy has been *much* better than Canada's since the pandemic.
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Yes I was "freaking out" haha. You have an interesting way of interpretating things. Letting your emotions get the best of you again I suppose.
 
While it seems decent for full-time work, it's a seasonally unadjusted view of a single month and the majority of the job creations were part-time work. Also, unemployment % (while a flawed statistic) remained the same at 6.1%. The theme being likely that the insanely high immigration rates (highest of the first world nations) caused more people to pick up gig work (Uber, Uber Eats, etc.) which is responsible for a lot of the part time numbers.

However this looks like it will hearten the central bank of Canada to not lower rates. This is actually much more catastrophic for Canadians, as almost every Canadian fixed-rate mortgage term is 5 years or less. Anyone who has to renew at a higher rate will likely be paying 2-3x on their mortgage payments than their previous rate. Probably most people will choose variable interest rates at that point and they will likely drop next year but for the short term there is going to be a lot of pain for even home purchasers who weren't overleveraged.
 
Scheme said:
While it seems decent for full-time work, it's a seasonally unadjusted view of a single month and the majority of the job creations were part-time work. Also, unemployment % (while a flawed statistic) remained the same at 6.1%. The theme being likely that the insanely high immigration rates (highest of the first world nations) caused more people to pick up gig work (Uber, Uber Eats, etc.) which is responsible for a lot of the part time numbers.

However this looks like it will hearten the central bank of Canada to not lower rates. This is actually much more catastrophic for Canadians, as almost every Canadian fixed-rate mortgage term is 5 years or less. Anyone who has to renew at a higher rate will likely be paying 2-3x on their mortgage payments than their previous rate. Probably most people will choose variable interest rates at that point and they will likely drop next year but for the short term there is going to be a lot of pain for even home purchasers who weren't overleveraged.
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Coupled with MASSIVE hikes in property taxes, i dont think a lot of "covid buyers" are going to pass the stress test.
 
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