Re-read the OP section specifically about Jon man.
Jon is a REALLY interesting case because he is the only fighter I know of that does what you described: falls in and out of the UFC's good graces. I mean sure people go from marketing favorites to marketing enemies (Randy Couture for example) historically but no one does this weird roller coaster thing like Jon where he flips constantly back and forth between positive and negative for years on end with Dana.
Anyway, that was what I found most interesting about Jon: in his "I'm feeling the UFC love" portions of his career 69% of his fights are Dean. In his "Dana doesn't like me" portions of his career he literally got the Herb treatment 0% of the time. Pretty funky coincidence, right? I notated the times when he dips off the UFC promotion roller coaster in green font in the OP in case you were curious.
I hear you, but one good way is to simply listen to what Dana/UFC says. He was pretty public about being pissed off that UFC 151 collapsed and was very public blaming Jon for that. Likewise UFC made no hiding of the fact that he caused 200 to implode when he tested for roids. Both times afterwards his normal Herb hookup evaporates.That's part of the problem I have with this whole thing though. Not saying you're consciously doing this, but this is how people manipulate or "interpret" data to make it support their hypotheses. Jon Jones doesn't quite fit the pattern of the other two you looked at, so you change it to various periods of time when Jones falls "in and out of grace." And how do we know when Jon is falling in and out of grace? That's easy, we can tell by when Herb Dean is or is not reffing his fights. It's circular reasoning.
lol can't tell if you are serious or not man. Language seems over the top enough that you are doing some kind of satire ("nasty goblin who tried to tear" and "rip the skin open") but maybe you actually feel strongly enough about that fight all these years later, I dunnoBut Chad is a nasty goblin who tried to tear Conors cut with his fingers. He tried to rip the skin open using his fingers. Glad he lost that one. So that one is a false accusation.
Coupling how one guy utterly dominates reffing for marketing favorites and how the SAME guy exclusively makes controversial call after call after call within those fights... and that none of his controversial calls have EVER benefited the marketing challenger... pretty clear trend IMHO. But that's what this thread is about / so others can make their own decision once looking at the data.I think unfortunately the only way to be sure is to look at all ME from your 50 fights list and see if a clear trend in behaviour is spottable.
Pretty good conspiracy theory. Hard to refute.
Just curious how you address the pattern of Herb Dean controversial calls that directly benefit marketing favorites and yet he NEVER has any kind of "incompetent" call that helps the marketing challenger...Most experienced and recognized ref being called on by several commissions to ref the biggest fights isn't much of a conspiracy.
I'm sure the data here is fine, but it's all pretty meaningless.
bro Chad tried to rip Conor cut with his fingers, it´s on camera. The goblin part was ofc joking. But it is fucking nasty. To try to finger an open wound, he cheated and got called out for it.lol can't tell if you are serious or not man. Language seems over the top enough that you are doing some kind of satire ("nasty goblin who tried to tear" and "rip the skin open") but maybe you actually feel strongly enough about that fight all these years later, I dunno
Coupling how one guy utterly dominates reffing for marketing favorites and how the SAME guy exclusively makes controversial call after call after call within those fights... and that none of his controversial calls have EVER benefited the marketing challenger... pretty clear trend IMHO. But that's what this thread is about / so others can make their own decision once looking at the data.
So after 3 weird Herb calls you'd expect at least 1 to hurt the marketing favorite.
The corporate slave in me is loving the pie charts.Also, in before PR accounts attack me personally rather than try to refute any of the facts I posted ITT.
SEPT 19TH EDIT #1 FOR PEOPLE REQUESTING CONTROL GROUP DATA:
Here is every ref for the last 50 main events. I omitted the data included in the OP (O'Malley fights) for obvious reasons of not duplicating what has already been covered. I also noted, among those last 50 MEs, five instances of MEs with a clear marketing favorite.
EVENT REF STRONG MARKETING ADV? FN: Burns/Brady HERB ESPN: Cannonier/Borralho Mirg 305: DDP/Izzy Goddard ESPN: Tybura/Spivac 2 HERB ABC: Sandhagen/Umar Goddard 304:Edwards/Belal HERB Belal clear enemy ESPN: Lemos/Jandiroba Smith ESPN: Rose/Cortez HERB 303: Alex/Jiri 2 HERB Alex clear favorite ABC: Rob/Aliskerov Goddard ESPN: Perez/Taira HERB ESPN: Cannonier/Imavov Herzog 302: Islam/Dustin Peterson FN: Barboza/Murphy HERB ESPN: Derrick/Nascimento Herzog 301: Pantoja/Erceg Goddard ESPN: Nicolau/Perez Smith 300: Alex/Jamahal HERB Alex clear favorite FN: Allen/Curtis 2 Smith ESPN: Blanchfield/Fiorot hispanic guy I don't know ESPN: Rose/Ribas Herzog FN: Tai/Tybura HERB FN: Bigi Boy/Gaziev Goddard FN: Royval/Moreno 2 HERB 298: Volk/Ilia Herzog FN: Joker/Pyfer Smith FN: Dolidze/Imavov HERB 297: Sean/DDP Goddard FN: Ankalaev/Walker 2 Goddard 296: Edwards/Colby HERB Colby clear favorite FN: Song/Gutierrez HERB ESPN: Beniel/Arman Smith FN: Allen/Craig Smith 295: Alex/Jiri 1 Goddard FN: Almeida/Lewis white guy (camera didn't pan to him much) 294: Islam/Volk 2 Goddard FN: Yusuff/Barboza HERB FN: Dawson/Green Peterson FN: Fiziev/Gamrot HERB FN: Val/Grasso 2 HERB 293: Izzy/Sean Goddard Izzy clear favorite FN: Gane/Spivac Goddard FN: Max/Zombie Goddard ESPN: Luque/RDA Smith ESPN: Sandhagen/Font Herzog 291: Dustin/Justin 2 HERB FN: Aspinall/Tybura Goddard ESPN: Holm/Silva Peterson 290: Volk/Yair HERB ESPN: Sean/Magomedov Smith
SEPT 19TH EDIT #2: PIE CHART FOR UNFILTERED DATA (last 50 MEs)
View attachment 1063485
As you can see, Herb is used often for MEs but nowhere NEAR as often (nearly half) the amount he is used when marketing stars are performing. His % drops to nearly even with Goddard once you remove the 5 fights with a marketing favorite from the data sample. Speaking of which, what is Herb's % for those five fights with a clear angle where the UFC may desire to favor one fighter?
SEPT 19TH EDIT #3: PIE CHART FOR FIGHTS ON THE ABOVE MAIN EVENT LIST WITH A CLEAR UFC PREFERENCE FOR WHO THEY'D LIKE TO WIN
View attachment 1063487
*sad trumpet noises* uh oh! Looks like when clear marketing favorites are in play we are right back to Herb "fight fixer" Dean's percentages hovering around his normal "important fights for UFC" %... again... nearly double his NORMAL percentage (for MEs) and I'm betting quadruple his NORMAL percentage for undercard fights of no relevance.
So I ask again... WHY is one guy used almost exclusively for fights that UFC has a pointed interest in who wins. Is it the SAME reason that guy almost EXCLUSIVELY is responsible for all officiating controversy benefiting favored fighters and the SAME guy that NEVER makes a controversial call which causes a marketing favorite to lose??
No, not really, since you were cagey about explicitly stating that was the case, and your examples didn't establish any kind of pattern of the sort.I thought the claims were very clear. UFC brass is using its influence to ensure Herb Dean is selected to referee fights in which they have a vested interest in the outcome, and Herb Dean has acted to attempt to influence those fights towards that desired outcome.
You can argue if the statement is true, but the statement was very clear.
No, not really, since you were cagey about explicitly stating that was the case, and your examples didn't establish any kind of pattern of the sort.
lol @ a guy with shit reading comprehension lecturing me about how statistics workSo IDK how much you know about statistics, but you don't cherry pick your samples, and 3 is not a statistically significant sample. So I'd take a statistically significan't and random sample of calls, or a complete data set since that's available.
But more over, controversy doens't mean bad call. And bad calls in less high profile fights are typically less controversial because less people care. I disagree with calls all the time, but that doesn't make me right.
For example when Herb let Bobby Green kick Dan Lauzon in the junk 38 times over the course of a round I thought it should have been stopped and Dan given a DQ win, because it's crazy to think he could still compete. Herb chose to let it go on and Dan did get the choke. So it turns out the most experienced ref in the sport knew better than me. The one thing we can be CERTAIN of is that Bobby who was getting a lot of slack for some reason was not the marketing favorite.
Perhaps a good way to analyze this kind of thing would be to look at calls that have been disputed with the ACs because there would be some level of analysis to that where we could make an evaluation of the merits of the ref's account of their decision making.
Gotcha. OP was cagey about making an explicit claim, and most of the examples he gives doesn't even fit the conspiracy theory.I haven't posted any examples, I didn't start the thread. I'd never thought about it, but there's definitely some merit to his claims
I said if you made three controversial calls
I'll explain this a 3rd time but stick to only covering the basics with you. The annoying part of this isn't that you don't understand... that is fine / there's a bunch of people that don't understand stats. It is the combination that you don't understand AND then have the audacity to talk down to the person who does understand it in a patronizing tone. That is really fucking annoying.They didn't make three controversial calls. He's made thousands of calls, somewhere between hundreds and dozens of which have been controversial to one degree or another.
You want to ignore all that and focus on a cherry-picked sample to suit a story you've made up.
So you'll have to pardon me if I take your skepticism of my reading comprehension with a grain of salt because you don't understand how any of this works.
You want to try to build a statistical case out of anecdotal BS And it would probably sway someone somewhere. But I'm not your mark.
Read the above then cite me one instance of him "fucking up" that directly lessened the chance the marketing favorite would win. I named a bunch of when his officiating overtly caused the marketing challenger to be less likely to win... he does that over and over and over and over since WME took over and is doing it with increasing regularity.Gotcha. OP was cagey about making an explicit claim, and most of the examples he gives doesn't even fit the conspiracy theory.
In cases where Herb didn't show any favoritism, he claimed that Herb just didn't get the chance to yet, and listed them as examples. Most of the cases listed had the person Herb was supposedly in the bag for losing. He listed Herb acting like a human being to someone having his leg brutally snapped as some sort of evidence of favoritism.
So, no, no pattern shown.
lol I think our acronym worlds are different brotherThe corporate slave in me is loving the pie charts.
I hope this was done ASAP by EOD within your BAU and in line with KPIs.
Yeah seniority/availability both I am guessing. Must suck for the other 54 guys in terms of getting adequate pay / never breaking through to the next level in the UFC.Any explanation on why 9 of a possible 43 refs are used most frequently? Seniority? Location?
I named you 7 instances of sample C where he favors the marketing favorite.