Boxing Discussion VIII

If he's truly fighting Usyk in December (I have my doubts) then this is just a sparring session. He'll take it rounds but he could finish at any time. If Ngannou even steals a round off him it's success for him...

Unsanctioned too, is there even judges?
 
So far I'm on

o4.5 -110
GTD +500
Fury 9-10 +1100 (small)
Francis DEC +6600 (tiny)

Hoping to get a Fury 6-10/DEC line
 
If this is a 10 rounder, Fury is going to have to go very easy on him to get to a decision. Could be farcical

Not saying he won't but Fury even in 2nd gear gets an easy stoppage.

I'm probably overthinking this. These things are always farcical
 
I put $30 on the O4.5 at 2.02 $5 on Fury dec at 6.75 and sprinkled on a few round bets between 6-10, also a small amount on Ngannou KO.

Any leads on the earlier fights? I'm pretty green with boxing only know of the big main stays.
 
Huni odds are way too low this weekend for the ML

His decision line +150 is pretty good. He wins by decision much more often here than stoppage. Almost a year out too.

O8.5, GTD, Huni Decision (sprinkle Tabiti decision at 17)
 
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glenn777 said:
I put $30 on the O4.5 at 2.02 $5 on Fury dec at 6.75 and sprinkled on a few round bets between 6-10, also a small amount on Ngannou KO.

Any leads on the earlier fights? I'm pretty green with boxing only know of the big main stays.
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It will be an embarrassment for Fury if it goes to a decision.

My predictions...
- Wadley. Maybe by decision since Adelye has good defence, but he gets hit a lot so Adelye could KO him.
- Parker KO
- Martin decision, but odds seem wide.
 
I think some books are undervaluing the odds Ngannou comes out like he did against Rozenstruik chucking overhands. Of course Ngannou will be wearing ten ounce gloves, not four ounce gloves like when he fought Rozenstruik, which makes this type of strategy less feasible but nonetheless still his best path to victory imo. Ngannou knows he is not going to outbox Fury and he has already shown the courage to go through with this type of extremely reckless strategy.

The fight could definitely end within sixty seconds.

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Gonna look to bet Fabio Wardley live also if he flips to the underdog after a slow start which is what I anticipate.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
I think some books are undervaluing the odds Ngannou comes out like he did against Rozenstruik chucking overhands. Of course Ngannou will be wearing ten ounce gloves, not four ounce gloves like when he fought Rozenstruik, which makes this type of strategy less feasible but nonetheless still his best path to victory imo. Ngannou knows he is not going to outbox Fury and he has already shown the courage to go through with this type of extremely reckless strategy.

The fight could definitely end within sixty seconds.

thirstyfakegosling-size_restricted.gif


Gonna look to bet Fabio Wardley live also if he flips to the underdog after a slow start which is what I anticipate.
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Possible but Fury isn't Rozenstruik and Ngannou knows it. And him swinging wildly and Fury avoiding them will have Frances looking pretty dumb. I think he wants to show he can actually box a bit. He knows he probably can't win, but wants to look like he belongs a little anyway.
 
mkess101 said:
Possible but Fury isn't Rozenstruik and Ngannou knows it. And him swinging wildly and Fury avoiding them will have Frances looking pretty dumb. I think he wants to show he can actually box a bit. He knows he probably can't win, but wants to look like he belongs a little anyway.
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Rozentruik was 10-0 and viewed as the next "big thing" at HW, having brutally knocked out his first four UFC opponents, when this fight occurred. Of course in hindsight we know Jairzinho didn't live up to that expectation but Ngannou choosing to throw all caution to the wind against a knockout artist literally fighting him for his spot was not without risk. He had tremendously more to lose had he lost that fight to Rozenstruik than he does in this fight where his fight purse is rumored to be upwards of eight figures.

My point is if he has already shown us he has the mental fortitude to fight like that, in the manner which arguably, for this fight, maximizes his chances of winning (since it significantly increases variance and minimizes skill) then theres a realistic chance he chooses to go back to that.

Of course theres no way too truly know what type of strategy Ngannou is going to implement but its at least something to consider given the odds in many under sixty seconds markets which are mispriced imo.
 
Brockstar said:
You can get Fury by Unanimous Decision at +700 on DraftKings. I took that for $125.
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Amount:$253.44

To win:$1,900.80

Boxing Props - Francis Ngannou vs Tyson Fury - Exact Method of Victory - Tyson Fury to win by Unanimous Decision +750

The line was 800+ a few minutes ago. It dropped to 750+ after i went to shower. now the line is at 700+

it was also temporarily locked before it went down to 700+ . looks like people are hammering that line.

The fact the fight is 10 rounds makes this prop very probable.
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Rozentruik was 10-0 and viewed as the next "big thing" at HW, having brutally knocked out his first four UFC opponents, when this fight occurred. Of course in hindsight we know Jairzinho didn't live up to that expectation but Ngannou choosing to throw all caution to the wind against a knockout artist literally fighting him for his spot was not without risk. He had tremendously more to lose had he lost that fight to Rozenstruik than he does in this fight where his fight purse is rumored to be upwards of nine figures.

My point is if he has already shown us he has the mental fortitude to fight like that, in the manner which arguably, for this fight, maximizes his chances of winning (since it significantly increases variance and minimizes skill) then theres a realistic chance he chooses to go back to that.

Of course theres no way too truly know what type of strategy Ngannou is going to implement but its at least something to consider given the odds in many under sixty seconds markets which are mispriced imo.
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Yeah that's fair, I guess I haven't looked at the odds for under 60 seconds to really comment specifically on that. You could well be right. May be a case where it's just an either/or. Either Ngannou comes out like you think he might, swinging wildly...and probably gets countered and KO'd quick...or he plays it extra cautious. Tries to tie up, survive, etc. And Fury is fine taking no chances and slowly breaking Frances down with superior skill.
 
£50 Takam decision +1000 to win £500... also added a little extra to tyson rds 6 and 7
 
Stat_Collector said:
Amount:$253.44

To win:$1,900.80

Boxing Props - Francis Ngannou vs Tyson Fury - Exact Method of Victory - Tyson Fury to win by Unanimous Decision +750

The line was 800+ a few minutes ago. It dropped to 750+ after i went to shower. now the line is at 700+

it was also temporarily locked before it went down to 700+ . looks like people are hammering that line.

The fact the fight is 10 rounds makes this prop very probable.
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IDK about "probable", but you absolutely have great value imo. Fury might want rounds, and if Frances is durable it could be him getting picked apart for 10 rounds. I still think Fury stoppage after rd 5 or so seems more likely but at +750 it's a very good play.

I have overs on fight time (13.5 minutes), Fury jabs landed (24.5) and Fury total punches landed (63.5) so I am rooting for you for sure LOL.
 
Fury to get a knockdown in rounds 1-3 +100 is my guess on this. Have to do it with no ufc
 
Tyson Fury (33-0-1 Boxing) Vs Francis Ngannou (17-3 MMA)

We have a great fight today live from Saudi Arabia with two of the best heavyweight athletes in boxing and MMA.

Francis Ngannou is being counted out due to this being his first professional boxing match.

He will for sure have many disadvantages stylistically but the one advantage he has is knockout power.

Ngannou has also shown in the past a great chin and decent cardio.

It only takes one shot to change the fight and I believe Ngannou will be able to hit him after a slow first couple rounds.

I could see Ngannou working the body before delivering a highlight knockout reel for the ages.

Pick: Francis Ngannou ML (+837)

Francis Ngannou bet.JPG
 
If Ngannou’s training footage isnt fake then its gonna be a long night for him lol
hard to guess how the fight plays out since Fury Still wants the Usyk fight in the near future
 
Don Sharpe said:
Tyson Fury (33-0-1 Boxing) Vs Francis Ngannou (17-3 MMA)

We have a great fight today live from Saudi Arabia with two of the best heavyweight athletes in boxing and MMA.

Francis Ngannou is being counted out due to this being his first professional boxing match.

He will for sure have many disadvantages stylistically but the one advantage he has is knockout power.

Ngannou has also shown in the past a great chin and decent cardio.

It only takes one shot to change the fight and I believe Ngannou will be able to hit him after a slow first couple rounds.

I could see Ngannou working the body before delivering a highlight knockout reel for the ages.

Pick: Francis Ngannou ML (+837)

View attachment 1008984
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+800 is a shitty line for something that won't happen
 
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