Boxing Discussion VIII

stingren said:
View attachment 1002650 View attachment 1002649
my play for tommrow
Ive been waiting to fade clay waterman,hes a decent come forward action fighter with imo overated power and chinny(seen him hurt bad multiple times on the australian circuit)

I think kareem hacket will be able to turn him and create angles when waterman looks to bully himself inside and catch him at the end of his long punches

odds way too wide
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+237
 
burge13 said:
I feel the odds have gone too far in Zhangs favour now. Dog or pass imo

Not looked at the card overall though
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yeah your right
Zhang 1-6
Joyce 7-12
Joyce points are only plays for main event

i like moses itauma on points or the over to play it safe
 
I baby bet this (Hackett), tailing on the bad DK odds +190 for $20.

Thanks for the insight and win!
 
$1200 on Zhang -120

Joyce shouid have similar problems of logistics as the first fight. It’s his first fight against a fellow super heavyweight who is durable and comes to win. This reduces his usual size and strength advantage. Joyce likes to grind, bully and impose his will on usually smaller heavyweights.

Joyce is going to have the same problems style wise. As his age I doubt he gets faster. So he’s behind on speed against Zhang with better hand speed and coming out of a seemingly confusing southpaw stance. Zhang landed many hard lefts and was sharp with counter lefts that Joyce had zero clue what to do with.
Yesterday Joyce weighed in a a career high which in theory means even slower than before. Zhang seems mentally strong and shouldn’t have declined any from the first match just a few months ago. I’m all in on Zhang with a similar repeat.
 
I keep on changing my mind on how best to bet this... I think Joyce decision or Zhang by another ref stoppage are the 2 likely results. Zhang will need to dominate to win a decision at the 02 and he hardly throws after rd 6... and I don't think it likely Joyce will be able to stop Zhang (although I did hedge with late stoppage)

£150 Joyce decision +400 to win £600
£30 Joyce rds 9-12 +1000 to win £300

£75 Zhang 5-8 +500 (with boost) to win £375
£75 Zhang KO +160 to win £120

*I see that Paddypower have changed the bet to rds 10-12, however on the main page it still says 9-12 so I think it is an error on their website. Anyway I will make a claim if they try to screw me. I took a screen shot just in case.
Made this after a bottle of rum so it may be a bit shit. lol
 
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benebox said:
I keep on changing my mind on how best to bet this... I think Joyce decision or Zhang by another ref stoppage are the 2 likely results. Zhang will need to dominate to win a decision at the 02 and he hardly throws after rd 6... and I don't think it likely Joyce will be able to stop Zhang (although I did hedge with late stoppage)

£150 Joyce decision +400 to win £600
£30 Joyce rds 9-12 +1000 to win £300

£75 Zhang 5-8 +500 (with boost) to win £375
£75 Zhang KO +160 to win £120

*I see that Paddypower have changed the bet to rds 10-12, however on the main page it still says 9-12 so I think it is an error on their website. Anyway I will make a claim if they try to screw me. I took a screen shot just in case.
Made this after a bottle of rum so it may be a bit shit. lol
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-£125 As soon as rd 1 started with Joyce looking so akward I knew he was getting KO'd. He should rematch Dubois, he's not a top 5 fighter
 
Ladsbroke has connor benn ko 1-5 at 1.80

Need that to finish a parlay
 
Clenelo to score a knockdown +175
$200

Charlos defense isnt very good and his jab while good gets countered often specially against shorter fighters. Ropes saved him from getting knocked down in round 2 or 3 in 1st Castano fight. Clenelo cracks him with a cross counter over jab at some point and puts him to canvas. He just dropped Ryder too to I am surprised its this wide. GGG hasnt been down ever and Bivol is a LHW.

Hes dropped everyone else hes fought since 2015, the last 8 years, besides those 2, Jacobs, Callum and Chavez. GGG, Bivol, Callum have never been knocked down. Chavez and Jacobs only twice and once. All of them are much better defensively than Charlo besides Chavez and GGG probably has best chin of this era.

People who think there isnt a clear size advantage for him also cant differentiate size from height. Charlo also broke his left hand early in the year in 2 spots and needed surgery. Hes been having hand issues for a while. Clenelo will realize in a few rounds power coming back isnt something he hasnt felt and Charlo will get cracked.

Smaller on stoppage +300
$50
 
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ExitLUPin said:
Clenelo to score a knockdown +175
$200

Charlos defense isnt very good and his jab while good gets countered often specially against shorter fighters. Ropes saved him from getting knocked down in round 2 or 3 in 1st Castano fight. Clenelo cracks him with a cross counter over jab at some point and puts him to canvas. He just dropped Ryder too to I am surprised its this wide. GGG hasnt been down ever and Bivol is a LHW.

Hes dropped everyone else hes fought since 2015, the last 8 years, besides those 2, Jacobs, Callum and Chavez. GGG, Bivol, Callum have never been knocked down. Chavez and Jacobs only twice and once. All of them are much better defensively than Charlo besides Chavez and GGG probably has best chin of this era.

People who think there isnt a clear size advantage for him also cant differentiate size from height. Charlo also broke his left hand early in the year in 2 spots and needed surgery. Hes been having hand issues for a while. Clenelo will realize in a few rounds power coming back isnt something he hasnt felt and Charlo will get cracked.

Smaller on stoppage +300
$50
Click to expand...
I hit the openers hard. Canelo ML 1.52 and stoppage 5.60 from memory (might have been 5.20)

I think Canelo wins pretty easy. 2 weight classes is alot and even though nelo is plateauing I think he'll land the big shots which at some point breaks Charlo. Charlo defence isnt that great either. It shouldn't go distance, depends how much canelo has left?
 
ExitLUPin said:
Clenelo to score a knockdown +175
$200

Charlos defense isnt very good and his jab while good gets countered often specially against shorter fighters. Ropes saved him from getting knocked down in round 2 or 3 in 1st Castano fight. Clenelo cracks him with a cross counter over jab at some point and puts him to canvas. He just dropped Ryder too to I am surprised its this wide. GGG hasnt been down ever and Bivol is a LHW.

Hes dropped everyone else hes fought since 2015, the last 8 years, besides those 2, Jacobs, Callum and Chavez. GGG, Bivol, Callum have never been knocked down. Chavez and Jacobs only twice and once. All of them are much better defensively than Charlo besides Chavez and GGG probably has best chin of this era.

People who think there isnt a clear size advantage for him also cant differentiate size from height. Charlo also broke his left hand early in the year in 2 spots and needed surgery. Hes been having hand issues for a while. Clenelo will realize in a few rounds power coming back isnt something he hasnt felt and Charlo will get cracked.

Smaller on stoppage +300
$50
Click to expand...

Cheers, I'll copy that bet for sure! Technically he didn't knock down Saunders either since that was a doctors stoppage.
benebox said:
Canelo at -200 is definitely a good play, I could see him being a -350 come fight night.
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Went as I hoped... I bet 3 units, but think I'm gonna hedge 1 or 2 units come fight night.
 
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