Short write up and bet since it appears people are unhappy that I don't post breakdowns for fights when nobody has asked for it.............
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First let me just say that if this was Stevenson from 3 years ago I'd pick him by KO 90% of the time, but it's not so we are left wondering if he has aged overnight at 40? Will his gas tank hold up? Is his counter left still as fast, are the fast, explosive reflexes still there? Of course being largely inactive brings a lot of questions like the above but it also means that Adonis hasn't taken a lot of damage for being 40 years old, he hasn't had to endure punishing wars and he is without doubt well rested in between fights. You can definitely look at it from both sides, Adonis who is known to be a notorious cherrypicker has taken this fight against the younger Jack, which suggests he does believe this is a very winnable fight for him, and in all honesty it could end up being his last, especially if it's an emphatic win.
Jack needs to be at the top of his game here, stick to a strict game plan of circling away from the left, mixing his shots up and not staying in the pocket too long. The battle of the lead foot will be huge here, Jack has shown to be very slick when he wins this and keeps his opponent chasing whilst he lands stabbing shots. His ring generalship is very good, he often dictates the tempo of the bout. If Jack can mix his shots well he can negate that left hand of Adonis, we've seen Adonis shell up at times when his body is being worked, which has left his feet out of place and looking a bit sloppy. The danger with this is that although Jack used this same kind of tactic well against Bute, Bute eventually started to time Jack and crack him with some solid lefts to the head and body, although a decent enough puncher; Bute's power is nothing compared to Stevenson's and if Stevenson lands one of them of Jack it could well be game over. Jack's inside game is decent, he's crafty with his forearm to create space and work the body but he can get carried away and stay in there too long which he has been punished for before.
Although 40, power is the last thing to go, so even an Adonis that looks slower explosively is a big danger with his power and timing. Stevenson is a fantastic counter puncher but can operate on the front foot too, if the Bellew fight Bellew actually had some success early on in making Stevenson miss with the left hand, he pivoted well and left Adonis searching. Adonis began to change it up, using his lead right to feint and hook in order to set up the left which then began to find it's home on the chin of Bellew. Although the right hand of 'Superman' isn't near as much a threat as his left, he's crafty with it and uses it well to set up his shots. Adonis being a southpaw also makes this interesting due to the fact we have seen Jack have a hard time against southpaws in the past, DeGale and Bute, both of who although fantastic boxers didn't carry this kind of power. Jack's best win's have all been majority decisions, splits or draw, not slating him by any means, I love watching him but although he ran through Cleverly we have to remember this was the ghost of Cleverly and I expect a majority of the top guys would have done the same.
I really hope there isn't but stylistically there is a high chance we seen a clash of heads here so even a little on the draw could be worth a shout. Southpaw vs Orthodox and both guys love to leap in with shots to the body and that is a recipe for disaster here. Stevenson can't afford to be so lazy with his low guard in this fight, he's gotten away with it against others and he does use it well when he's concentrating, his high shoulder block and roll make him a very elusive target for anyone to land a right hand on. However, we've seen him get complacent with it and get caught clean, Fonfara managed it a good few times.
For me there are a few key factors here; Adonis being the naturally bigger guy with Jack's only fight at the weight being against a shot Cleverly. Adonis' killswitch power, he's hurt much bigger guys than Jack with that textbook straight left which pierces through the guard. The southpaw stance we've seen cause Jack trouble and the his chin. Now I don't but into the whole "he's got a glass chin" crap but I do think it's questionable, which I think is a fare statement.
If Badou comes in on the top of his game and can do it up until round 8 and avoid the big shots then it's totally possible he wins by late stoppage or DEC but that's a huge IF. He could just look to young and fast for Adonis who could look very old and slow, but I just don't see that happening at this point in time. There are a few guys at Light Heavy I think beat Stevenson but Jack isn't one of them yet and it being in Canada and being promoted by Yvon Michel is a bonus for Adonis too if it does end up close on the cards.
I'm taking Stevenson @ 1.75 (I was expecting him to be around 1.50) and will wait until props are released before possibly making another play.
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