Boxing Discussion VIII

whos on bivol this weekend? might use him as a leg could be my biggest boxing bet ever.
 
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whos on bivol this weekend? might use him as a leg could be my biggest boxing bet ever.
I don’t love his price. He seems to be the real deal but Barrera is more experienced and faced a much higher quality of competition.
 
Yeah I think he gets I done for sure, likely finishes him too but I'll wait and see what the DEC and TKO lines are like.

Barrera starts slow, often gets knocked down in the early rounds but after that he sharpens up as the fight goes on, albeit he is still defensively very open but still dangerous and crafty. His ability to recover from knockdowns is quite impressive (knocked down 5 times but never finished) but I think Bivol's power and killer instinct will really test that if he knocks him down early and pours it on looking for the finish.

Barrera's best punch is his jab, when he commits to it he can do some damage, especially he follows it up with the straight right. He's vastly experienced, been in there with some of the best guys at the weight and shown he can overcome adversity, I think many underrate him, been guilty of it myself in the past, as much as he has some glaring vulnerabilities he is still a solid operator and no doubt Bivol's biggest test so far.

Bivol like Barrera also possesses a solid jab, he packs power in both hands and has some incredibly nasty body work. Bivol lacks the pro experience of Barrera and hasn't really had his defence tested as pro, something that Barrera should be able to do in spells of this fight.

There are 2 bets I think could be good here, one is a live betting opportunity.

Bivol 1-3 Round Group Betting - No odds released for this yet but if I can get this around 3.20 or thereabouts I think it's a good bet. I think for sure he knocks Barrera down early, I believe his power and skill set give him a better chance of finishing Barrera than the Cuban's previous opponents.

However, if Bivol does score an early knockdown the odds on Bivol DEC could be very appealing, as mentioned Barrera has great ability to recover so it could end up being a great opportunity.

Not exactly how I'll play it yet, will wait for the full odds to be released and then decide the best way to approach it.
 
kell brook dec +150

im hoping that brook takes the hector camacho post edwin rosario fight plan and uses his footwork to avoid anymore wars to protect his broken eyes.
 
Uzcategui vs Direll go at it again. Interesting.

Last time I was on Uzcategui @ 8.00... Now he's 1.66. That was a fuckin' robbery in the first fight but yeah, it will be fun.

I'm on Appleyard, 1u @ 1.83 ; 0.5u Ortiz dec @ 14.50 , that line is waaaaaay off...

Also, I like Bivol very much as a fighter, but being -400 favourite in the most difficult fight so far...not fair. I wouldn't play it.
 
@crow @pytycrys

Wilder itd -160. I've seen most of his recent fights. Scary power obviously. Looks wild sometimes but seems like he really only goes nuts with his winging power shots when he has his opponent really hurt. I see Ortiz record is good (obviously at 28-0) but from what I've read has only faced a few legit guys?

I'm pretty tempted to pay the juice that Wilder finds this guy's chin and does what he always seems to do. But need your thoughts first.
 
@crow @pytycrys

Wilder itd -160. I've seen most of his recent fights. Scary power obviously. Looks wild sometimes but seems like he really only goes nuts with his winging power shots when he has his opponent really hurt. I see Ortiz record is good (obviously at 28-0) but from what I've read has only faced a few legit guys?

I'm pretty tempted to pay the juice that Wilder finds this guy's chin and does what he always seems to do. But need your thoughts first.

Ortiz has a very good amateur background and is generally considered the better technical boxer than Wilder.
 
@crow @pytycrys

Wilder itd -160. I've seen most of his recent fights. Scary power obviously. Looks wild sometimes but seems like he really only goes nuts with his winging power shots when he has his opponent really hurt. I see Ortiz record is good (obviously at 28-0) but from what I've read has only faced a few legit guys?

I'm pretty tempted to pay the juice that Wilder finds this guy's chin and does what he always seems to do. But need your thoughts first.

Ortiz is the more skilled and many will back him purely because the dislike for Wilder and the fact that Wilder appears to struggle to throw a punch with textbook form.

However I think Ortiz may have some early success but in the end prove to be a bit too long in the tooth and eventually get caught and put away. I'm not a fan of Wilder but I can see something big landing for him eventually and getting it done, likely in the second half of the fight.
 
David Allen KO, TKO or DQ - 2.75.

Will play a decent amount on this.

The first bout was in some people's minds a robbery. Allen looked to be in control, Thomas fighting the majority of the fight off the ropes, eating shots and returning a few of his own but largely looked gassed from the mid rounds. Allen really should have been able to secure a finish, he looked to slow himself and couldn't fully go through the gears and secure the finish.

Allen has now dropped a lot of weight, for the first bout he weighed in at 17st 12lbs (250 lbs), during this camp he is even now at 16st 7lbs (231 lbs) he's taking it serious and looking to avenge the defeat and make a statement.

Thomas struggled with Allen's output last time before Allen slowed, this time I think Allen will manage to keep a high pace and pressure and eventually break down Thomas and get the finish.

I expect this line will drop towards the fight so 2.75 is a great price in my opinion, was surprised to see it so high.
 
In regards to my thoughts the other day about betting the Bivol vs Barrera fight.

Bivol 1-3 @ 5.00, may bet this now due to his power and Barrera's tendency to get stunned and knocked down early.

Then if it happens I'll check the LB price of Bivol DEC and possibly then make a play on it depending on the odds.
 
Exactly the same thoughts CR0W, I felt like Lenroy wanted to give up during that last fight and can see him retiring in the mid to late rounds this time.
 
Kovalev KO, TKO, or DQ @ 2.00.

Don't need a write up for this, I think there's a huge chance it happens and I'll happily double my money on it at a generous price.
 
@crow @pytycrys

Wilder itd -160. I've seen most of his recent fights. Scary power obviously. Looks wild sometimes but seems like he really only goes nuts with his winging power shots when he has his opponent really hurt. I see Ortiz record is good (obviously at 28-0) but from what I've read has only faced a few legit guys?

I'm pretty tempted to pay the juice that Wilder finds this guy's chin and does what he always seems to do. But need your thoughts first.

I'm on Ortiz dec, but small.
I am not a huge fan of putting serious money on fight with hype, simply because you don't know how that may affect each fighter.
Also, I don't really trust Wilder -160 to get the KO, Ortiz is tough. I think there is more value in Ortiz dec +1350 than Wilder KO -160.

Edit : Had to hit 1u Yafai dec @ 2.80 at Betfair..He's not a finisher and McDonnell is tough.
 
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Allen TKO line has dropped to 2.50 already.
 
Kovalev KO, TKO, or DQ @ 2.00.

Don't need a write up for this, I think there's a huge chance it happens and I'll happily double my money on it at a generous price.
On this big time, a friend alerted me to it. Who has evens? Coral says they do but don’t actually.
Edit: just seen all places changed a lot, 1.7 now everywhere (coral says 2.0 but it isn’t)
 
On this big time, a friend alerted me to it. Who has evens? Coral says they do but don’t actually.

Yeah was Coral but it isn't actually letting you select any of them, had to take 1.83 instead but still happy with that.
 
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