Boxing Discussion IV

[pytycrys]

Iain Butcher +1000 vs Charlie Edwards? Edwards going up a weight class. I like it a lot, I may throw 2u on that.

 

[CR0W]

Edwards should be too much for a guy with no stopping power like Butcher. This is what I had written when I tipped Casimero to beat Edwards, followed him from the start of his career and although I knew that would be a step too much too early but it was a valuable lesson and I think he'll run through Butcher.

"I consider Casimero at 1.66 fantastic value this weekend against Charlie Edwards.

As much as I respect Edwards for not being scared to take on such a skilled and dangerous opponent early in his career I struggle to see him winning this at all. Edwards has made a big impact on the paid ranks in quick time, picking up the English title in just his fifth fight and the WBC International strap in his seventh but a world title shot may be far too soon for him.

Casimero landed the IBF Flyweight crown in May with a fourth round KO over Amnat Ruenroeng, avenging for a points loss for the belt in June 2015. That win made the 26 year old Filipino a two-weight champion having previously held the IBF Light-Flyweight crown.

Edwards is for sure a talent, fast hands and a good mover but Casimero will eventually get to him. Casmiero packs brutalising body shots which can been seen in his fight with Ruenroeng. Edwards won't embarrass himself but he will literally have to be flawless to win it; The Filipino won't be intimidated fighting in England, you just need to watch the end of the Lazarte fight to see why.

Sham5916910 said: ↑

I was looking at this fight thinking its come early. You like dec or stoppage win?


"I'm thinking late stoppage.

His bodywork will wear Edwards down and Casimero has some of the best stopping power around Flyweight. Will certainly be a valiant effort from Edwards if he can take it to a decision and will gain a lot of respect even in a loss."

Hit a nice Casimero + Haskins DEC double that weekend.

If we can get Edwards ITD at anything around 1.50 I'll be on it. He looks terrific in training pics and vids even at his new weight class.

 

[Sham5916910]

Any views on ricky burns fight? Looked to me like he might be reaching end of the road last fight

 

[CR0W]

Any views on ricky burns fight? Looked to me like he might be reaching end of the road last fight

Absolutely LOVE Indongo at these odds. The Troyanovsky knockout was brutal and for all we know he has more to offer still. I actually thought Relikh really could have been given the decision against Burns but he is hard as hell to beat on the cards in Glasgow. He's only really lost to top guys but he is definitely on the downside and looked more vulnerable in the Relikh fight than his past fights. Definitely taking Indongo at dog odds and possibly ITD.

 

[Sham5916910]

Absolutely LOVE Indongo at these odds. The Troyanovsky knockout was brutal and for all we know he has more to offer still. I actually thought Relikh really could have been given the decision against Burns but he is hard as hell to beat on the cards in Glasgow. He's only really lost to top guys but he is definitely on the downside and looked more vulnerable in the Relikh fight than his past fights. Definitely taking Indongo at dog odds and possibly ITD.

My only worry is Indongo going to have to dominate to get the decision win if it goes to the cards. Don't know if im better off just taking him ITD but Burns has never been stopped...

 

[CR0W]

My only worry is Indongo going to have to dominate to get the decision win if it goes to the cards. Don't know if im better off just taking him ITD but Burns has never been stopped...

I'm definitely going to take the ML, not on huge but there's certainly value in it given Burns last outing and Indongo's last outing. A hard hitting southpaw will be a dangerous opponent for Burns, the last one he faced was Zlaticanin. There's not a whole lot of footage on Indongo but like I said, stylistically and going by their last outings and the fact Burns struggled against what was a fighter he shouldn't have been overly troubled by I see value.

 

[null]

Iain Butcher +1000 vs Charlie Edwards? Edwards going up a weight class. I like it a lot, I may throw 2u on that.

I hope you put something on Butcher at that price as you can probably freeroll that now since it seems every other sportsbook has Edwards at -5xx or -6xx and Butcher at +4xx now. Meanwhile, I am sitting here wondering if I should wait to see if Indongo's line is going to improve from +175.

 

[LEMONZEST]

A trend I have noticed with the steep lines is they often open really steep like +1200 and then closer to fight time the margin narrows and the odds get closer with the dog getting bet down to +600-+700 range which can create some freerolling opportunities.

Adonis Stevenson and Andrzej Fonfara - June 3

Yeah this fight is a ways away but based on what I said above I have put 1u on Fonfara @ +1100. The interesting thing about this matchup is these 2 fought in 2014 with Stevenson clearly getting the best of it.



Stevenson is the rightful favourite however Fonfara does have a path to victory. If Fonfara can stick and move and avoid the power shots of AS I think he can edge a decision. AS squeaked a couple hard shots thorugh the gaurd of Fonfara getting a couple KDs in their first fight so the defense of Fonfara obviously needs to be a bit better the 2nd time out if he wants to get the W.

 

[null]

Fired a 1u play on Indongo over Burns at this price as I too was impressed by his fast KO of Troyanovsky. Not sure if that price will go up or not:

Julius Indongo (+175) vs Ricky Burns $100.00 for $175.00

 

[BluntTrauma21]

On Rosado +260 for 2u over Murray a couple weeks from now. That's a really good line, imo, Rosado more than capable, can box a bit, has some pop, tough guy, although his face tears like wet paper, which is always a concern with him. Been in a lot of tough fights but he's still only 30 and he's got more in the tank, imo.

Murray not a puncher by any means and I think he's well past his prime, he's 34 and .Fight is on Murray's turf so that's a plus for him, but +260 is kind of baffling to me. This line should be much closer, I think Rosado could easily pull of this upset if his face stays together. Not understanding this one. In for 2u, might up it a bit more closer to fight time. Also Rosado has a fairly recent win or Clottey, who is much better than any wins Murray has in recent years. Everything points to Rosado for me here.

 

[quincy k]

On Rosado +260 for 2u over Murray a couple weeks from now. That's a really good line, imo, Rosado more than capable, can box a bit, has some pop, tough guy, although his face tears like wet paper, which is always a concern with him. Been in a lot of tough fights but he's still only 30 and he's got more in the tank, imo.

Murray not a puncher by any means and I think he's well past his prime, he's 34 and .Fight is on Murray's turf so that's a plus for him, but +260 is kind of baffling to me. This line should be much closer, I think Rosado could easily pull of this upset if his face stays together. Not understanding this one. In for 2u, might up it a bit more closer to fight time. Also Rosado has a fairly recent win or Clottey, who is much better than any wins Murray has in recent years. Everything points to Rosado for me here.

clottey confirmed himself after the loss to rosado that he is not a 160 and insinuated the weight was the reason that he lost. i wouldn look to much into that fight, rosados bkb win over stevens was much better



i think the line is right taking into consideration that the fight is in the UK, promoted by mms hearn and the fact that mm might be drained at 160. if murray can throw 600 punches like he did against aa i dont give rosado much of a chance even if his paper skin holds up(he was again cut in the monroe fight) and the fight goes to the matchroom cards.

take a look at both the willie monroe(averaged 35 punches/round at a 15 percent connect percentage) and guitterez fights, rosado appears to be a fighter on the decline. the difference here is that martin has been losing, yet still somewhat competitive, to proven world class 168s whereas rosado has been losing to contenders at 160, completely shutout against monroe jr

 

[Sham5916910]

Money jn on burns indongo now +175

 

[MMAGamblero]

Took pelicans +115 for 2 units.
Took nuggets +120 for 3 units.
Took angels at -108 for 2 units.

 

[MMAGamblero]

Wrong thread

 

[Shancock9]

Anybody else think chisora is a good price (1.91) to get revenge on helenius?

 

[CR0W]

Settled on Indongo DEC @6.50

I don't think he'll KO Burns but has the power to make him cautious as well as land the telling shots. He's a power punching southpaw which I mentioned before; the last one Burns faced was Zlaticanin who beat him.

Indongo has boxed for Namibia in the Olympics, has a good amateur pedigree, despite his big KO of Troyanovsky he also has the technical ability. The Relikh fight was close and Indongo is no doubt a step up overall. That fight was close on the scorecards even with it being in Glasgow and I think Indongo can do enough to get the decision here.

 

[quincy k]

i took indongo as well but plan on hedging if given the chance. i think burns starts cautious like he did against relikh respecting his power and could lose the first three or four rounds.

indongos going to need some kds to get a decision in scotland on a matchroom card

 

[CR0W]

i took indongo as well but plan on hedging if given the chance. i think burns starts cautious like he did against relikh respecting his power and could lose the first three or four rounds.

indongos going to need some kds to get a decision in scotland on a matchroom card

I think the hometown aspect can be overrated at times, I don't necessarily think he needs knockdowns but he does need to land telling shots and push the pace.

A kickdown or 2 would be ideal but he's got such an awkward style, long rangy southpaw and I don't expect fireworks in this fight. More likely I see bursts of punches, clinch, release repeat and it being a fairly ugly affair.

Best of luck to everyone else this weekend.

 

[Sham5916910]

I think the hometown aspect can be overrated at times, I don't necessarily think he needs knockdowns but he does need to land telling shots and push the pace.

A kickdown or 2 would be ideal but he's got such an awkward style, long rangy southpaw and I don't expect fireworks in this fight. More likely I see bursts of punches, clinch, release repeat and it being a fairly ugly affair.

Best of luck to everyone else this weekend.

In MMA hell yes. But boxing can be very corrupt. I defo don't see Indongo getting a close dec.

 

[CR0W]

In MMA hell yes. But boxing can be very corrupt. I defo don't see Indongo getting a close dec.

It used to be really bad, it isn't near as bad nowadays as it was back in the day. Don't get me wrong if there's a super close round it could well go Burns way; but we've seen him lose a close decision in Scotland before as well as a wider decision to Crawford. Although he may be favoured in split rounds it's no foregone conclusion that he can't lose lose a decision in Glasgow, he certainly can.

I've cornered in Glasgow and Paisley albeit on much smaller shows and seen the hometown guy lose a close decision, not the same scale as Matchroom obviously but still the promoter wants their hometown guy to win and it doesn't happen, it's no sure thing.