Boxing Discussion IV

[CR0W]

I'm 1.5u on Tapia +500. Love the odds. He has faced way better opponents.

Whilst this may be true, he was destroyed by both. It's always worth remembering not to bet the underdog purely because they are the underdog, as well as previous opponents isn't always an indicator of being that talented.

For example, Josesito Lopez (no denying he has talent) has faced Mora, Vargas, Ortiz, Canelo, Maidana and Berto. Out of them names the latter 3 all KO'd him in the first half of the fight; but no doubt they are all good names to have faced. But I wouldn't bet on him if he were to face an unbeaten prospect like Ponomarev or Gomez nowadays unless he was at 8.00 (+700.00) or higher, otherwise I just feel like I'm throwing away money purely hoping that an underdog will win, even if I don't think it has a decent chance. Sometimes it does work out like that and a shock 13.00 etc does come in but it's miss more often than hit and I don't find it profitable in the long run, even with a big win now and then.

That being said it's of course up to whoever is placing the bet to bet however they want on whoever they want. I enjoy watching past fights and breaking them down, giving analysis etc and try to do it with all fights before I place a bet which is why I have a good strike rate at pretty good odds. Sometimes it's just logical to bet on a favourite instead of trying to find value that isn't there on an underdog, or bet rounds or method of winning etc.

If anyone ever does want a breakdown or analysis on an upcoming fight or boxer then feel free to tag me and I'll do the best I can. I'm by no means saying I can give an expert breakdown or predict every fight but I'm happy to help in any way I can going by my current knowledge as well as re-watching fights., we're all searching for a win at the end of the day.

 

[pytycrys]

@CR0W
What do you think about Omar Narvaez-Emmanuel Rodriguez?
At first I kinda liked Narvaez's line, but after watching some tape, Rodriguez seems like a very solid fighter. Also, he has great amateur background, Youth Olympics, etc

 

[CR0W]

@CR0W
What do you think about Omar Narvaez-Emmanuel Rodriguez?
At first I kinda liked Narvaez's line, but after watching some tape, Rodriguez seems like a very solid fighter. Also, he has great amateur background, Youth Olympics, etc

Haven't watched tape yet but will do tomorrow, however Narvaez line did catch my eye initially but like yourself after looking into it a bit more my interest decreased. Will watch tape when I'm home tomorrow and try get a write up.

 

[quincy k]

I'm 1.5u on Tapia +500. Love the odds. He has faced way better opponents.

i dont think roach is training tapia anymore so that probably means he has no trainer or a very limited one at that.

im looking at either the under or quigley by ko

 

[Shancock9]

Anyone think they've found any value in linares/crolla & arnfield/rose fights this weekend?

 

[null]

Anyone think they've found any value in linares/crolla & arnfield/rose fights this weekend?

I'm on Linares to repeat in the re-match with Crolla at -175 and -182 to win more than two units. The prices have gotten significantly longer most everywhere, although there's quite a bit of variation right now depending on where you bet. Also taking a stab at Linares' KO prop and round 10-12 prop at decent odds suspecting he might break Crolla down a bit more efficiently now that he's fought him once. I'm a bit leery of UK judging if it goes the distance, but I thought Linares was a level above Crolla based on their first fight and don't really see what will change so quickly in this immediate re-match. Also on Arnfield ML to win more than one unit. Got a good price of -127 last week, lines are much longer pretty much everywhere now.

 

[quincy k]

linares right hand injury could be a problem.

 

[null]

linares right hand injury could be a problem.

I'm not familiar with this, did he injure it in the last fight or is it an old injury?

 

[CR0W]

Haven't watched tape yet but will do tomorrow, however Narvaez line did catch my eye initially but like yourself after looking into it a bit more my interest decreased. Will watch tape when I'm home tomorrow and try get a write up.

Just spent about 45 minutes watching the footage that I could find; conclusion is that Rodriguez is going to be too clean and his punches too tight for Narvaez to have success.

Narvaez' style used to be so entertaining but obviously as he's gotten older he can't implement that style the same way he used to. Rodriguez could be destined for the very top potentially and this will definitely be a nice test for him but I can't see Narvaez putting him in any kind of major trouble but could prove tricky at times.

Especially with it being in Puerto Rico, you'd imagine Narvaez would have to clearly win the rounds and as I mentioned he just won't have the stamina to do that against the younger more technical guy; he doesn't pack the same power he used to either so I think it's safe to assume a finish is out of the question for him. I can't justify any value so I'm going to stay clear.

I currently have a decent amount of money on Linares and Linares late TKO and will look at the Arnfield fight a bit more in the coming days.

 

[CR0W]

I'm not familiar with this, did he injure it in the last fight or is it an old injury?

He was told to rest it for 7 weeks after the first fight last year, but that was in the 6th round so if his hand is fully recovered now I can imagine a late stoppage.

I believe the injury occurred in the build up to the fight but it felt alright come fight time, but flared up midway through.

 

[quincy k]

I'm not familiar with this, did he injure it in the last fight or is it an old injury?

he was stripped of is title in early 2016 because of the broken rigt hand and then reinjured the same hand in the crolla fight

http://www.worldboxingnews.net/2016...lla-victory-told-to-rest-hand-for-seven-weeks

he could also have other injuries

http://www.skysports.com/boxing/new...-jorge-linares-will-beat-anthony-crolla-again

 

[quincy k]

He was told to rest it for 7 weeks after the first fight last year, but that was in the 6th round so if his hand is fully recovered now I can imagine a late stoppage.

there is no guarantee that is the case

linares injured the hand in early 2016 and then reaggravated the injury in the crolla fight

injuring the same hand twice in the same year is not good.

 

[CR0W]

there is no guarantee that is the case

linares injured the hand in early 2016 and then reaggravated the injury in the crolla fight

injuring the same hand twice in the same year is not good.

Of course there is no guarantee but there is also no guarantee he is carrying them either, that just remains to be seen.

I've had a repetitive hand injury for little over a year and it can be hell, fine for a weeks then flare up like crazy; definitely a noticeable improvement when rested though. Hopefully with it being rested up we don't see another injury as Linares is a pleasure to watch and this fight should be great, I don't want to see it plagued by injury.

The positive is there was no fracture or break after the Crolla fight, which is great.

 

[null]

there is no guarantee that is the case

linares injured the hand in early 2016 and then reaggravated the injury in the crolla fight

injuring the same hand twice in the same year is not good.

He hasn't fought since the first Crolla bout and being the beltholder and knowing this re-match was coming for a long while, hopefully he had plenty of time to heal up again. Of course, anything could happen during the fight.

 

[quincy k]

Of course there is no guarantee but there is also no guarantee he is carrying them either, that just remains to be seen.

I've had a repetitive hand injury for little over a year and it can be hell, fine for a weeks then flare up like crazy; definitely a noticeable improvement when rested though. Hopefully with it being rested up we don't see another injury as Linares is a pleasure to watch and this fight should be great, I don't want to see it plagued by injury.

The positive is there was no fracture or break after the Crolla fight, which is great.

whats interesting is that linares actually won the later portion of the fight after the hand injury

im going to live bet crolla if he gets to +400 or 500 because of the injury.

 

[CR0W]

whats interesting is that linares actually won the later portion of the fight after the hand injury

im going to live bet crolla if he gets to +400 or 500 because of the injury.

Yeah exactly, if he does come into this without injury (fingers crossed) I think he can get a late stoppage.

Agreed, come midway if Crolla does get to decent odds I'll likely have a small stab.

 

[quincy k]

He hasn't fought since the first Crolla bout and being the beltholder and knowing this re-match was coming for a long while, hopefully he had plenty of time to heal up again. Of course, anything could happen during the fight.

yes but he is sparring altough probably conservatively at that. i cant bet on guys fightng with an injury and actually look to fade them. i bet bisping over rockhold when everyone ignored that luke was injured and a signifcant one at that

 

[quincy k]

Yeah exactly, if he does come into this without injury (fingers crossed) I think he can get a late stoppage.

Agreed, come midway if Crolla does get to decent odds I'll likely have a small stab.

in manchester on a matchroom promotion, possible linares injury, maybe an opportunity to middle later as there will be a lot of liquidity at 365 and betfair from uk bettors

 

[CR0W]

in manchester on a matchroom promotion, possible linares injury, maybe an opportunity to middle later as there will be a lot of liquidity at 365 and betfair from uk bettors

If Linares gets off to a good start in the opening rounds I would expect Crolla would reach appealing odds to at least cover my original bet.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I respect your guys' opinions but I just think the value is all on Crolla here.

3u Crolla +205
.3u draw +1393
1u un10.5 +160
.5u un9.5n +200
.25u Crolla itd +540

Under is a quasi hedge. I think Linares probably stops Crolla this time around if he wins (I always mention this but in over 40 pro fights, this last fight was the ONLY time Linares has been 12rds in his career, win or lose). I can also see Crolla getting a stoppage as well but main play is obviously Crolla.

Had to toss a little something on the draw b/c Crolla tends to go to close Dec's and he's already had several in his career (2 of his last 6 have been draws). Linares, despite his beautiful boxing, has a very shaky chin and has a pretty high ko% in his wins, especially for the smaller weightclasses. Win or lose Linares has been in fights that end in stoppage 61% of the time and we're getting solid +money on u9.5 and 10.5 on dimes and bm respectively (or at least when I bet them). I took a bite of both.

Either way, GL boys. Looks like the only decent fighting will be the overseas boxing for us Murricans this weekend so at least if I lose I know you guys are making some money, and vice versa.