Boxing Discussion III

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null said:
Does anyone have any insight as to why is Erislandy Lara is so overwhelmingly favored to stop Yuri Foreman this coming Friday? I know he's a -10000 favorite but Lara doesn't have a huge KO percentage. Yet he's heavily favored at steep - money on the UK books on Oddschecker to stop Foreman while Lara by 10 round decision pays over +300 some places. Even the over/unders from over 5½ on up are priced expecting this not to go the distance. Is Foreman that bad? He's only lost twice- in one he retired vs Wolak at the end of the 6th and the other being a KO by Miguel Cotto in the 9th round.
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As you all know i love a decision bet so im all over this. Lara has only stopped two of his last nine opponents. I just hope Boxrec is right and the bookies and this is defo a 10 rounder. A number of Lara's recent opponents have never been stopped tho so you do need to read beneath the numbers. But i think @ +300 there's value there. Lara took Canelo to a split so that probably holds a lot of weight with the books.

Edit: just looked at Foreman's record - only two fights in three years against complete scrubs, and his comeback fight was a close decision win over a guy with a losing record. He's 36 too. Think i'll skip it.
 
Lara in rounds 7-12 is +220 though. Can Foreman survive 6 at least?
 
Sham5916910 said:
As you all know i love a decision bet so im all over this. Lara has only stopped two of his last nine opponents. I just hope Boxrec is right and the bookies and this is defo a 10 rounder. A number of Lara's recent opponents have never been stopped tho so you do need to read beneath the numbers. But i think @ +300 there's value there. Lara took Canelo to a split so that probably holds a lot of weight with the books.

Edit: just looked at Foreman's record - only two fights in three years against complete scrubs, and his comeback fight was a close decision win over a guy with a losing record. He's 36 too. Think i'll skip it.
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its a 12 round wba championship fight.

http://www.boxingscene.com/erislandy-lara-says-he-motivated-wipe-foreman-out-early--112443

foreman quit against wolak and is here for a paycheck. its not in ny, hes not protecting a never-been-kod-record and lara is fighting in his hometown.
 
After looking into Foreman's recent weak opposition and reading Lara's prediction for a fast KO to try to get bigger fights soon, plus recalling Lara stopping Jan Zaveck in three rounds last time he fought in Hialeah, I'm playing an under prop at plus money on this showcase fight on Spike TV.

Erislandy Lara/Yuri Foreman doesn't start round 7 (+103) ~$90.80 for ~$93.52
 
I think the Jack/DeGale fight is no more than 60/40 either way, so I like the value on Jack at this price. I believe it also has the potential to be close on the judges' scorecards, possibly ending in a split or majority decision. So I bet those props and a few bucks on draws as well.

Anthony Dirrell/Norbert Nemesapati doesn't start round 6 (+120) ~$45.40 for ~$54.48

Erislandy Lara/Yuri Foreman doesn't start round 7 (+103) ~$90.80 for ~$93.52

Gervonta Davis (+130) vs Jose Pedraza $100.00 for $130.00
Gervonta Davis will win by KO (+254) vs Jose Pedraza ~$26.33 for ~$66.88

Badou Jack (+235) vs James DeGale $125.00 for $293.75
Badou Jack wins by majority decision (+1450) $8.00 for $116.00
Badou Jack wins by split decision (+825) $12.00 for $99.00
James DeGale wins by split decision (+750) $12.00 for $90.00

Badou Jack/James DeGale majority decision draw (+6000) $8.00 for $480.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale split decision draw (+2600) $2.00 for $52.00
 
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null said:
I think the Jack/DeGale fight is no more than 60/40 either way, so I like the value on Jack at this price. I believe it also has the potential to be close on the judges' scorecards, possibly ending in a split or majority decision. So I bet those props and a few bucks on draws as well.

Anthony Dirrell/Norbert Nemesapati doesn't start round 6 (+120) ~$45.40 for ~$54.48

Erislandy Lara/Yuri Foreman doesn't start round 7 (+103) ~$90.80 for ~$93.52

Gervonta Davis (+130) vs Jose Pedraza $100.00 for $130.00
Gervonta Davis will win by KO (+254) vs Jose Pedraza ~$26.33 for ~$66.88

Badou Jack (+235) vs James DeGale $125.00 for $293.75
Badou Jack wins by majority decision (+1450) $8.00 for $116.00
Badou Jack wins by split decision (+825) $12.00 for $99.00
James DeGale wins by split decision (+750) $12.00 for $90.00

Badou Jack/James DeGale majority decision draw (+6000) $8.00 for $480.00
Badou Jack/James DeGale split decision draw (+2600) $2.00 for $52.00
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Foreman is terrible. Where'd you get that Davis KO prop bet?
 
Nemesapati's corner and the referee wave off the Dirrell bout between round 6 & 7, they call it a TKO at 2:59 of round 6 interestingly enough, not 3:00 of round 6 like usual. Anyway, just missed the doesn't start round 6 prop by one round.
 
Beautiful uppercut by Lara. My bet cashes, hope everyone else did well too.
 
Just came to post the exact same thing vkram. What a perfect uppercut by Lara to cash my doesn't start round 7 prop.
 
Alright on Gervonta Davis as a dog (not a good price compared to opener but enough to see some value) and also Jack as a dog against Degale. Liking both of those spots for 1.5u apiece.

I've been really impressed with Erika Badou Jack recently, guy has been top notch on this latest run run. Anyway this line seems way off to me, Jack has looked great recently while Degale hasn't looked nearly as good imo, might up the Jack bet to 2u closer to fight time.

His technique, jab, bodywork, defense are all gonna be tough for Degale to handle imo. See this fight much closer than the books have it.
 
Badau up to +275 on 5d - 1u on that and might drop a bit more on his dec +450 @ bf exchange
 
Any value on Pedraza as a slight dog? What about the over/under?
 
Added a point spread bet as well: Badou Jack +12½ points (-135) $101.25 for $75.00
 
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