Boxing Discussion II

[BluntTrauma21]

Wish I would have checked this thread earlier tonight! I was absorbed with the UFC card. Missed your tip, BT. :-(

it's my bad should've looked into it earlier. tried to get the post in but only an hour before the fight or so.

 

[CR0W]

Not posted any boxing tips in a while but 2 bets I'm liking a lot this weekend.

Chris Eubank Jr vs Tom Doran - Under 7.5
Anthony Joshua vs Dominic Breazeale - Under 3.5
Keith Thurman vs Shawn Porter - Shawn Porter

@ 5.56 / +456.00

Also

Martin Murray via Decision @ 4.50 / +350.00

Still watching more tape but those are really standing out to me right now.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Not posted any boxing tips in a while but 2 bets I'm liking a lot this weekend.

Chris Eubank Jr vs Tom Doran - Under 7.5
Anthony Joshua vs Dominic Breazeale - Under 3.5
Keith Thurman vs Shawn Porter - Shawn Porter

@ 5.56 / +456.00

Also

Martin Murray via Decision @ 4.50 / +350.00

Still watching more tape but those are really standing out to me right now.

Thanks for posting mate!

 

[CR0W]

Thanks for posting mate!

No problem! Really confident in the triple.

Groves vs Murray is a lot closer and it all depends if Murray can snatch some early rounds. If Grove builds up a solid lead over the first 8 rounds I can't seem him losing. But he often fades late and if Murray can snatch some early rounds and not just be overly defensive then he can take a decision by capturing rounds 8-12.

 

[Agent Mulder]

No problem! Really confident in the triple.

Groves vs Murray is a lot closer and it all depends if Murray can snatch some early rounds. If Grove builds up a solid lead over the first 8 rounds I can't seem him losing. But he often fades late and if Murray can snatch some early rounds and not just be overly defensive then he can take a decision by capturing rounds 8-12.

Gonna be interesting for sure! Looking forward to it.

 

[null]

Not posted any boxing tips in a while but 2 bets I'm liking a lot this weekend.

Chris Eubank Jr vs Tom Doran - Under 7.5
Anthony Joshua vs Dominic Breazeale - Under 3.5
Keith Thurman vs Shawn Porter - Shawn Porter

@ 5.56 / +456.00

Also

Martin Murray via Decision @ 4.50 / +350.00

Still watching more tape but those are really standing out to me right now.

Shawn Porter alone is a roughly +180 underdog depending on which book you wager at, and you are adding him to that three-leg parlay. So I have to assume that means you favor Porter outright over Keith Thurman? Surely at those odds that also warrants to single bet on Shawn Porter, no?

 

[Sham5916910]

Not posted any boxing tips in a while but 2 bets I'm liking a lot this weekend.

Chris Eubank Jr vs Tom Doran - Under 7.5
Anthony Joshua vs Dominic Breazeale - Under 3.5
Keith Thurman vs Shawn Porter - Shawn Porter

@ 5.56 / +456.00

Also

Martin Murray via Decision @ 4.50 / +350.00

Still watching more tape but those are really standing out to me right now.

Good to have you back Crow.

I was actually looking at Eubank dec +500 but i have been burnt last two Eubank fights live betting decision wins for him! He is accurate but more of a wears you down type puncher. The fight before last was stopped by the corner as so one sided and last fight was due to bad swelling. Do you have any info on Doran as all i know about him is from Boxrec?!

 

[CR0W]

Shawn Porter alone is a roughly +180 underdog depending on which book you wager at, and you are adding him to that three-leg parlay. So I have to assume that means you favor Porter outright over Keith Thurman? Surely at those odds that also warrants to single bet on Shawn Porter, no?

I see what you're saying but as people will know from my previous underdog tips on here I tend to only do single bets if the underdog is at least 3.50 ish.

I favour Porter outright but I'm willing to take the risk of pairing it in in a triple.

Which also explains my single bet on Murray at them odds.

 

[CR0W]

Good to have you back Crow.

I was actually looking at Eubank dec +500 but i have been burnt last two Eubank fights live betting decision wins for him! He is accurate but more of a wears you down type puncher. The fight before last was stopped by the corner as so one sided and last fight was due to bad swelling. Do you have any info on Doran as all i know about him is from Boxrec?!

Thanks buddy!

I tipped Eubank within rounds 7-9 last fight against Blackwell so unfortunately missed out just but was very close. A lot of people were saying to me before hand Eubank didn't have the power to damage someone like Blackwell etc but we all seen how that turned out.

I do have a bit of info but I'm currently out and on my phone at the moment. Will post when I get home.

 

[RyuDave]

Nice tips cr0w

 

[CR0W]

Nice tips cr0w

Thanks man!

 

[CR0W]

Regarding Tom Doran:

For me, there is simply nothing that stands out about Doran that suggests he has much of a chance here. With Blackwell at least he had the toughness and the ability to pressure that could throw Eubank off, making him work when he notoriously likes to take a few rounds off.

He really hasn't faced the best of opponents, definitely no-one near the skill level of Eubank Jr. So what is the best method for Doran? Most likely to just try jab and move and avoid being caught standing in front of Eubank and keep his back off the ropes at all costs. Doran does have quite a sneaky lead left hook but from watching his fights he does seem to have a habit of leaving his chin rather high when throwing punches and retracting, he was dropped hard by Keeler but did very well to recover.

Doran favours the lead left followed by the straight right but he can't be throwing punches like that in close with Eubank or he won't last long at all. I can see Eubank ripping the body followed by the uppercut it typical Eubank fashion and finishing within 7.

 

[Sham5916910]

Regarding Tom Doran:

For me, there is simply nothing that stands out about Doran that suggests he has much of a chance here. With Blackwell at least he had the toughness and the ability to pressure that could throw Eubank off, making him work when he notoriously likes to take a few rounds off.

He really hasn't faced the best of opponents, definitely no-one near the skill level of Eubank Jr. So what is the best method for Doran? Most likely to just try jab and move and avoid being caught standing in front of Eubank and keep his back off the ropes at all costs. Doran does have quite a sneaky lead left hook but from watching his fights he does seem to have a habit of leaving his chin rather high when throwing punches and retracting, he was dropped hard by Keeler but did very well to recover.

Doran favours the lead left followed by the straight right but he can't be throwing punches like that in close with Eubank or he won't last long at all. I can see Eubank ripping the body followed by the uppercut it typical Eubank fashion and finishing within 7.

Great stuff.

 

[null]

I see what you're saying but as people will know from my previous underdog tips on here I tend to only do single bets if the underdog is at least 3.50 ish.

I favour Porter outright but I'm willing to take the risk of pairing it in in a triple.

Which also explains my single bet on Murray at them odds.

I see. At the U.S. friendly books we may not ever get an over/under on Eubank Jr./Doran even the day of the fight and the under 3½ on Joshua/Breazeale is already bet down to -400 on 5D, so I probably couldn't really tail your triple anyway. Do you mind explaining in brief your reasoning on Porter over Thurman though? That's a big main event fight on primetime network tv here in North America, so I'd be curious why you like the dog in that one. +180 isn't too low for me to bet if there's a good justification! I don't recall if you still bet MMA or why you consider boxing different, but an underdog that is favored by the bettor or even considered a pick 'em at going for +180 odds is a for sure multiple unit value bet for most of us.

 

[CR0W]

I see. At the U.S. friendly books we may not ever get an over/under on Eubank Jr./Doran even the day of the fight and the under 3½ on Joshua/Breazeale is already bet down to -400 on 5D, so I probably couldn't really tail your triple anyway. Do you mind explaining in brief your reasoning on Porter over Thurman though? That's a big main event fight on primetime network tv here in North America, so I'd be curious why you like the dog in that one. +180 isn't too low for me to bet if there's a good justification! I don't recall if you still bet MMA or why you consider boxing different, but an underdog that is favored by the bettor or even considered a pick 'em at going for +180 odds is a for sure multiple unit value bet for most of us.

I just find Porter to still be very underrated. He gets a reputation of being a very basic boxer who can only fight on the inside and not throw straight punches. But overall I think he is a lot more technical than people give him credit for, including a nice jab. One thing for sure I think it will be quite an ugly fight and likely very close.

Thurman does have the better footwork in my opinion and will be looking to fight at range, probably taking the early rounds because of this. But Porter's inside game is superior and from watching Thurman that looks like an opening that Porter could very well exploit. Thurman really doesn't look very comfortable when he isn't the one fighting in his desired range.

Thurman has talked in interviews about shortening his punches to deal with Porter's swarming so it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Of course there is still a good chance that Thurman catches Porter coming in swarming, especially given Thurman's punching power.

Overall I can 100% see why Thurman is favourite here, especially given the blemishes on Porters record but styles make fights and given the right game plan I think Porter can take a messy and hard to score decision, all depending if the judges score the cleaner shots or the volume and aggression of Porter.

Thurman wants this fight fought at range, Porter wants a messy inside fight where he can overwhelm Thurman. I wouldn't be surprised to see Porter manage to finish Thurman late to be honest, very excited for this one stylistically.

Also in regards to MMA betting: Yes I still bet MMA but usually triples or more. Won big on a 4 fold last weekend which was my only bet on the card. Don't usually go for singles unless I really like the odds. I predicted 12 fights correct on the Jones vs St.Preux card and put £1 or £2 for £100 and something. Usually I'll go big on a triple or 4 fold and then a few smaller fun bets. But I will go pretty big on a single underdog if the odds are good enough.

 

[null]

Four part Showtime All Access special for Thurman vs Porter:


I have to agree there's value on Porter as an underdog. No need to parlay for me at these odds:

Shawn Porter (+180) vs Keith Thurman $100.00 for $180.00

 

[null]

Anyone have an idea what this massive line movement is about for this headline bout on NBC SN Saturday night?

Openers:

Current Best Odds:

 

[Sham5916910]

Murray dec now +450

 

[RyuDave]

How many rounds is coner Benn he's a massive favourite but maybe just maybe he goes to Dec again?

 

[null]

Couple of small stabs on two underdogs on a Beijing, China card tomorrow afternoon, supposedly going to be shown on BoxNation. Strictly BoxRec capping backed up by Sunday Puncher's breakdown:

Jason Sosa (+700) vs Javier Fortuna $25.00 for $175.00
Nehomar Cermeno (+400) vs Jun Qiu Xiao $25.00 for $100.00