Bitcoin is a Bubble

[Toastytoy]

damn i sold mine back when it hit 800.

 

[mike sherry]

Because right now it IS 1 bitcoin for one ounce of gold. That's what I'm saying makes no sense. That's what my argument is. If it was 1 bitcoin to .0000001 ounce gold that would make more sense. The value bitcoin gives me isn't worth an ounce of gold. That's why to me I think it's a bubble.

why does it need to make sense to you? it is literally just an abitrary number that was decided when the blocks were mined. there is nothing magical about 1 bitcoin. it can be bought and sold in quantities less than 1 bitcoin.

you are stuck on this and its weird. its literally an arbitrary number.

the value that you get from bitcoin is less than gold. sure. i get that. but that doesnt mean its a bubble just because you dont have a value from it. its likely a bubble because of the french elections with the euro effecting the price more than anythung.

 

[VivaRevolution]

The price of a Bitcoin is higher now than an ounce of gold. This is hilarious to me. How is something that doesn't exist end up being worth more than gold? "But it has value, It's a digital currency. " The dollar is a digital currency. "But it can't be manipulated by central banks." Perhaps the best argument. But it's still a currency backed by nothing but confidence. This is called mass speculation. It's not that i think its value should be zero. But worth more than gold? Nah. Bubble that'll crash.

Am I wrong?

Yes you are. Bitcoin is black market currency.

It's exclusive value on the blackmarket, is a kin to only being able to buy oil with US dollars.

 

[Thunderflash500]

Yes you are. Bitcoin is black market currency.

It's exclusive value on the blackmarket, is a kin to only being able to buy oil with US dollars.

So if the government figures out a way to track bitcoin being used for illegal purchases wouldn't the value plummet? This is actually a decent argument though.

 

[VivaRevolution]

So if the government figures out a way to track bitcoin being used for illegal purchases wouldn't the value plummet? This is actually a decent argument though.

Sure, but if it could be done, it already would have been.

My understanding is that it is designed so it can't be tracked. I believe you would just have to outlaw it, which would be difficult to enforce.

 

[Thunderflash500]

why does it need to make sense to you? it is literally just an abitrary number that was decided when the blocks were mined. there is nothing magical about 1 bitcoin. it can be bought and sold in quantities less than 1 bitcoin.

you are stuck on this and its weird. its literally an arbitrary number.

the value that you get from bitcoin is less than gold. sure. i get that. but that doesnt mean its a bubble just because you dont have a value from it. its likely a bubble because of the french elections with the euro effecting the price more than anythung.

It needs to make sense otherwise its a bubble. I've tried getting someone to explain why it's worth $1300 a bitcoin. Nobody has. All I hear is "but but block chain". The only value it seems to have is for committing crime and avoiding taxes.

Is bitcoin used for anything but drugs? Is there actually a market run on bitcoin?

 

[mike sherry]

It needs to make sense otherwise its a bubble. I've tried getting someone to explain why it's worth $1300 a bitcoin. Nobody has. All I hear is "but but block chain". The only value it seems to have is for committing crime and avoiding taxes.

Is bitcoin used for anything but drugs? Is there actually a market run on bitcoin?

why does the USD have value to you?

 

[Thunderflash500]

why does the USD have value to you?

I don't think you realize I understand monetary systems and bitcoin.

 

[mike sherry]

I don't think you realize I understand monetary systems and bitcoin.

its a fiat currency. there is nothing backing the USD. a loaf of bread costs 2 dollars because thats what the seller is willing to sell it for.

why does it make no sense to you that bitcoin is worth 1300? thats what the free market put it at. Im not trying to be a dick but you really need to do more research on it.

 

[Thunderflash500]

its a fiat currency. there is nothing backing the USD. a loaf of bread costs 2 dollars because thats what the seller is willing to sell it for.

why does it make no sense to you that bitcoin is worth 1300? thats what the free market put it at. Im not trying to be a dick but you really need to do more research on it.

Everything you've typed is so basic. That's what you're not getting. Im aware the dollar is backed by nothing. It has value because that's what the government accepts tax payment with. Business accepts the dollar. Its value is based on how much is in circulation. That's why it lowers in value in respect to gold. That's why $20 in 1920 could buy an ounce of gold. Bitcoin is skyrocketing in price. Why? Are people actually using it? Id wager that the huge rise in price isn't based on actual use of bitcoin and people wanting it over other currencies, but I instead simple speculation. Pure speculation. I think people are hoarding. And once that bubble bursts, if FAITH is lost, it'll go all the way back below $100.

The only way I'd see it not happening is if it reaches mass acceptance. Which could happen I guess. We'll see.

 

[snakedafunky]

It needs to make sense otherwise its a bubble. I've tried getting someone to explain why it's worth $1300 a bitcoin. Nobody has. All I hear is "but but block chain". The only value it seems to have is for committing crime and avoiding taxes.

Is bitcoin used for anything but drugs? Is there actually a market run on bitcoin?

Yes sure, I would say the Drug use it just a small %.
I work for a SaaS company and we accept BTC most of our competitors do as well.

You can see a few more companies here from the US:
https://theamericangenius.com/finance/bitcoin/
"Other major companies to accept Bitcoin payments include Target, CVS, WordPress.com, Subway, Victoria Secret, PayPal, Expedia, Home Depot, Kmart, Sears, the Apple App Store, Grooveshark, Dell and Zappos."

It is especially popular in China and Africa. Because of the limitations you have from the government or Fraud protection via the more traditional payment method Credit Card, PayPal or Bank transfer.

 

[Buck Swope]

damn i sold mine back when it hit 800.

 

[forum poster]

damn i sold mine back when it hit 800.

That's not too bad. I had a few when they were worth around the 300 mark. I remember reading a story about a guy that used 10000 bitcions to order a pizza when they were practically worthless.
If he held on to them a few more years he would of had millions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericma...ase-thats-worth-7-million-today/#266140842509

 

[VivaRevolution]

It needs to make sense otherwise its a bubble. I've tried getting someone to explain why it's worth $1300 a bitcoin. Nobody has. All I hear is "but but block chain". The only value it seems to have is for committing crime and avoiding taxes.

Is bitcoin used for anything but drugs? Is there actually a market run on bitcoin?

There was just a story out about corporations buying bitcoins by the millions to pay ransom for when their computer systems are hacked, or personel kidknapped.

It is how you buy people, C4, narcotics, or anything else you want on the black web.

It is the currency of organized crime, and judging by the value of their currency, business is good.

 

[heloder]

I remember when Baseball cards started taking off in the 1980s and by 1990 it was a huge business with Billy Ripken error card, newer companies like Upper Deck with quality designs, and the beginning of the rare cards in RNG packs.

But by 2000 the industry and collecting collapsed. Fantasy leagues replaced the need to collect cards to keep people's habitual interest in the games satiated.

Fantasy leagues had nothing to do with it. The problem was people saw news stories of Honus Wagner cards being sold at auction and everybody began thinking of baseball cards as some kind of investment. There was just one problem with that:

Everybody began thinking of baseball cards as an investment.

The Honus Wagner card was valuable because it was rare. There was nothing rare about cards in the 80s and 90s because a billion of them were flying off store shelves. Then you had the Beckett price guides which were essentially 100% bullshit telling people that their worthless cards were actually worth something. When the Internet started gaining a foothold and the market opened up, everybody realized just how worthless their collections actually were. Cue the bubble burst.

Bitcoin isn't presently in danger of that particular problem, because they have a scarcity built into the system which has held up to this point. That's not to say Bitcoin can't collapse, because it certainly can (and has, and will again in the future).

 

[mike sherry]

Everything you've typed is so basic. That's what you're not getting. Im aware the dollar is backed by nothing. It has value because that's what the government accepts tax payment with. Business accepts the dollar. Its value is based on how much is in circulation. That's why it lowers in value in respect to gold. That's why $20 in 1920 could buy an ounce of gold. Bitcoin is skyrocketing in price. Why? Are people actually using it? Id wager that the huge rise in price isn't based on actual use of bitcoin and people wanting it over other currencies, but I instead simple speculation. Pure speculation. I think people are hoarding. And once that bubble bursts, if FAITH is lost, it'll go all the way back below $100.

The only way I'd see it not happening is if it reaches mass acceptance. Which could happen I guess. We'll see.

The only reason that bitcoin goes below 100$ is if the block chain itself is proven to be untrustworthy. It will then for sure go down to being worthless.

Even when bitcoin had its worse crash, it never went below 200 for long, if it even did at all. That crash had to do with a number of things, the major exchange turning insolvent, The Silk Road being raided, as well as numerous fake sell bots that were artificially driving up the price on mtGox. Still, the block chain remained trusted.

I don't even disagree that a major reason the price is so high right now is speculation. You probably think the actual price should be like 150(assuming you believe it has any value I guess), I think it should be closer to 850. But that doesn't change the fact that it is not selling for anywhere near those prices. The next time there is a new all time high I expected the whales to sell their shares off and crash the price, so they can then buy more cheaper and do it again after the panic selling.

But, if you see no value in the blockchain at all then you clearly have 100% faith in whoever controls the currency. I certainly do not trust the federal government as much as you.

 

[Thunderflash500]

The only reason that bitcoin goes below 100$ is if the block chain itself is proven to be untrustworthy. It will then for sure go down to being worthless.

Even when bitcoin had its worse crash, it never went below 200 for long, if it even did at all. That crash had to do with a number of things, the major exchange turning insolvent, The Silk Road being raided, as well as numerous fake sell bots that were artificially driving up the price on mtGox. Still, the block chain remained trusted.

I don't even disagree that a major reason the price is so high right now is speculation. You probably think the actual price should be like 150(assuming you believe it has any value I guess), I think it should be closer to 850. But that doesn't change the fact that it is not selling for anywhere near those prices. The next time there is a new all time high I expected the whales to sell their shares off and crash the price, so they can then buy more cheaper and do it again after the panic selling.

But, if you see no value in the blockchain at all then you clearly have 100% faith in whoever controls the currency. I certainly do not trust the federal government as much as you.

It could go to Zero even with the blockchain in tact. People could simply use another currency. Bitcoin is a gold copycat, but without a physical presence, essentially. A hedge against local currency manipulation. A hedge against inflation.

 

[Toastytoy]

That's not too bad. I had a few when they were worth around the 300 mark. I remember reading a story about a guy that used 10000 bitcions to order a pizza when they were practically worthless.
If he held on to them a few more years he would of had millions.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericma...ase-thats-worth-7-million-today/#266140842509

Oh yea for sure, i bought in at about around 380 so i cant complain tho, made like 1200 bucks

 

[mike sherry]

It could go to Zero even with the blockchain in tact. People could simply use another currency. Bitcoin is a gold copycat, but without a physical presence, essentially. A hedge against local currency manipulation. A hedge against inflation.

For bitcoin to actually go to zero means it would have to actually be worthless, and that will simply not happen without the blockchain being hackable. People currently use other currencies. As long as there are 100 people using bitcoin it won't ever be zero.

I would consider bitcoin to be more of an alternative to a bank.
because there is nothing physical to confiscate, it is the perfect currency against a leftist state that seeks to robe citizens of their acquired wealth.

 

[Thunderflash500]

For bitcoin to actually go to zero means it would have to actually be worthless, and that will simply not happen without the blockchain being hackable. People currently use other currencies. As long as there are 100 people using bitcoin it won't ever be zero.

I would consider bitcoin to be more of an alternative to a bank.
because there is nothing physical to confiscate, it is the perfect currency against a leftist state that seeks to robe citizens of their acquired wealth.

It'll happen if people lose faith. If 100 people are using bitcoin it's essentially a failed currency. Whether it's technically at zero is not relevant.

I've been researching this more on my own, and the one piece of evidence that I see that's interesting is overstock accepting bitcoin. If a few big sites like accept bitcoin without any weird rules involved I could accept Bitcoin not being a bubble. Until then it's speculation in my eyes. If enough people actually accept it I'll view it as a real money system.