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NATE Diaz, sorry for title.
So there has been lots of discussion regarding the technique and stylistic matchup between McGregor and Diaz, weight cuts, short camp, etc.
I won't drub on about that but I think good points can be made both ways (advantages to be had by each fighter) which leaves me to believe this fight is pretty much a pickum. However, this thread is primarily about the betting odds. Here are my conclusions:
If one were to take all of McGregors odds vs his performance outcomes, clearly he has outperformed his odds. This is always the case with fighters on the rise, until they reach a point where they either start declining or people start believing them to be more than what they are. Going back 2-3 years there were those who thought McGregor was the next GOAT, but most of it was joke and the ones really betting accordingly had little impact on the odds because they were few.
Looking at it now, people have very much bought into the hype. If you think McGregor is the current GOAT, has a decent chance at getting the MW belt or any other such nonsense, this post is not for you. This is for those who see that McGregor has proven himself to be an excellent fighter, but due to being fast-tracked to title shots/last minute opponent changes/going up in weight, believe he is also still a little untested.
Now, I analyzed Diaz's last 11 matchups. I didnt bother to look further as part of the point is to analyze once a fighter is already tested and once people have a clear image in their mind of what kind of performance to expect to see whether they are statistically underrated or overrated. I used aggregate betting odds (not just from one betting site) at close and averaged the difference between the favorite and underdog (-280/+220 would be 250) to get rid of the juice. I am not a betting expert so forgive me for anything I might be failing to understand. I only started a year ago but I have done very well for myself so far.
Lets cut to the chase for the TLDR folk: Statistically, Diaz is underrated
In 3 of his last 11 matchups, he was the favorite at an average of -188, just a little less than 2 to 1. He won 2, lost 1, which means he was just slightly underrated in those fights.
In 8 of his last 11, he was the underdog at an average of +191, just a little less than 2 to 1. He won 4 of 8, which means he was VERY underrated in those fights.
The sample size is not huge, but I think it is still pretty clear that bettors underrate him
Given Diaz being underrated and that a large chunk of those betting on McGregor seem to be completely irrational to the point of at least saying (if not believing) that he has a good chance at guys like Rockhold/Weidman or that he has already proven himself to be the GOAT, I think its clear that the betting odds are not where they should be.
Will he win? Who knows. Im not super confident. Is it worth the +400? Absolutely. Anyone who says "post your slip" can hold their horses. Odds are still going more towards McGregor. Diaz was +310 on the site I use when I first looked and is now +400, so Ill buy in closer to fight time after all the 2016 join dates on here go put money on McGregor with the rest of their casual MMA fan friends.
So there has been lots of discussion regarding the technique and stylistic matchup between McGregor and Diaz, weight cuts, short camp, etc.
I won't drub on about that but I think good points can be made both ways (advantages to be had by each fighter) which leaves me to believe this fight is pretty much a pickum. However, this thread is primarily about the betting odds. Here are my conclusions:
If one were to take all of McGregors odds vs his performance outcomes, clearly he has outperformed his odds. This is always the case with fighters on the rise, until they reach a point where they either start declining or people start believing them to be more than what they are. Going back 2-3 years there were those who thought McGregor was the next GOAT, but most of it was joke and the ones really betting accordingly had little impact on the odds because they were few.
Looking at it now, people have very much bought into the hype. If you think McGregor is the current GOAT, has a decent chance at getting the MW belt or any other such nonsense, this post is not for you. This is for those who see that McGregor has proven himself to be an excellent fighter, but due to being fast-tracked to title shots/last minute opponent changes/going up in weight, believe he is also still a little untested.
Now, I analyzed Diaz's last 11 matchups. I didnt bother to look further as part of the point is to analyze once a fighter is already tested and once people have a clear image in their mind of what kind of performance to expect to see whether they are statistically underrated or overrated. I used aggregate betting odds (not just from one betting site) at close and averaged the difference between the favorite and underdog (-280/+220 would be 250) to get rid of the juice. I am not a betting expert so forgive me for anything I might be failing to understand. I only started a year ago but I have done very well for myself so far.
Lets cut to the chase for the TLDR folk: Statistically, Diaz is underrated
In 3 of his last 11 matchups, he was the favorite at an average of -188, just a little less than 2 to 1. He won 2, lost 1, which means he was just slightly underrated in those fights.
In 8 of his last 11, he was the underdog at an average of +191, just a little less than 2 to 1. He won 4 of 8, which means he was VERY underrated in those fights.
The sample size is not huge, but I think it is still pretty clear that bettors underrate him
Given Diaz being underrated and that a large chunk of those betting on McGregor seem to be completely irrational to the point of at least saying (if not believing) that he has a good chance at guys like Rockhold/Weidman or that he has already proven himself to be the GOAT, I think its clear that the betting odds are not where they should be.
Will he win? Who knows. Im not super confident. Is it worth the +400? Absolutely. Anyone who says "post your slip" can hold their horses. Odds are still going more towards McGregor. Diaz was +310 on the site I use when I first looked and is now +400, so Ill buy in closer to fight time after all the 2016 join dates on here go put money on McGregor with the rest of their casual MMA fan friends.
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