Bellator 225 Mitrione vs Kharitonov II

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Aug 12, 2019.

  1. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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  2. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    Pretty sure Johnson vs. Anyanwu didn't get randomly demoted to the prelims, heh. Will be interesting to see what other fights are offered other than the main event to bet on.
     
  3. Masterbettor

    Masterbettor White Belt

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    Kharitonov should be atleast at +120 but he's a underdog. Bet.
     
  4. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    What is this number based off?
     
  5. Masterbettor

    Masterbettor White Belt

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    He is even money now on Bovada.
     
  6. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    Why are you capping Kharitonov as "at least +120"?
     
  7. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Good Bellator card, going to be especially entertaining with no UFC this coming weekend:

    2u Sergei Kharitonov +115
     
  8. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Sergei's been training in Thailand. Says he is going to use his wrestling and possibly submit Mitrione. We all know that Meathead is terrible off his back. Even if Sergei just uses the threat of takedowns it could make his striking open up. And he's already a better striker technically than Mitrione anyway so a knockout is not unlikely either. https://mymmanews.com/sergei-kharitonovs-rematch-with-matt-mitrione-bellator-225/
     
  9. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I don't think Mitrione is all in on MMA anymore. He lives in my college town where I know a lot of people. His kids are friends with my friends' kids. There really isn't a big MMA scene there and it looks like he trains a lot with the Purdue wrestlers. I really question if he gets much sparring in, and who knows what level. Even though we just got a small glimpse last time out, he looked extremely uncomfortable standing against Sergei.
     
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  10. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Brown Belt

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    Where has Matt been training? Does he have a permanent team or does he just move around?
     
  11. Oblivian

    Oblivian Aging Platinum Member

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    I think he left for a fight camp with the Blackzillian guys, but day in and day out, I don't think he really has much of a team.
     
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  12. ApplesVild

    ApplesVild Brown Belt

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    Pffft I've put a unit on Sergie, I think Matt is a part timer now and hasn't looked good for a long time, if the going gets tough he will quit
     
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  13. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    The confidence on Kharitonov is perplexing. Like people are talking themselves into it.

    Mittrione's dedication nowadays is questionable, but Kharitonov hasn't been seriously dedicated to MMA for at least 10 years now.

    He also looked painfully slow, fat, and out-of-shape, with no interest in fighting against Vyazigin. He took the first available opportunity for a NC. And then, when he got kicked in the balls in the Mittrione, same shit there.

    I have no interest in betting on this fight either way.
     
  14. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    You're putting the absolute worst possible slant on Sergei's later career. In the last seven years Kharitonov has won 10 out of 11 fights that didn't end in a No Contest, with one knockout loss by the hard hitting Javy Ayala. The Mitrione fight had barely started and he got kicked very hard in the groin about fifteen seconds in, so it's not like he was already losing or dead tired and wanted a way out and took it. He looked great boxing up and knocking out Roy Nelson before that, albeit a 2018 Roy Nelson. In the Anton Vyazgin fight before that he was dealing with a fighter who could wrestle him and take his back and threaten to submit him, something that Mitrione is not going to do. He even managed to reverse Vyazgin early and end up on top for much of the first round. He was coming forward on Vzazgin in round 2 when a phantom eyepoke seemed to happen, but Vyazgin acknowledged it with a hand gesture for what that is worth. I couldn't really see the poke on the replay but it sounds like you are accusing Sergei of faking an eye poke injury to get out of a fight that he wasn't losing yet and I don't believe that to be the case personally. As an underdog I think he matches up well with Mitirone at this point, especially since Mitrione was all herky jerky in the brief time their fight lasted before the groin strike.
     
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  15. PolarBearPaulVarelans

    PolarBearPaulVarelans Purple Belt

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    This is pure Wiki-capping.

    As someone who has been a fan of Sergei's and closely followed his career since his days at Russia Top Team in the early 2000s, I've learned to be realistic about his defects in terms of laziness, motivation, and simply being a professional.

    Yes, Kharitonov won a bunch of fights against garbage heavyweights, most of whom were as old and broken-down as him, if not moreso.

    Mitrione, for being a limited fighter and 41 years old, is a lot tougher and more dangerous than 2017 Sokodjou, 40 year-old Kenny Garner, Chase Gormley, a Joey Beltran with crippled knees, or the other people Kharitonov beat during that "10 out of 11" win streak.

    Sergei looked great against a glorified punching bag whose reactions and timing are completely shot from a combination of age and blows to the head, whose sole remaining weapon is his wrestling.

    That has zero relevance to a fight against Mittrione, who won't be looking to wrestle Kharitonov at all, and whose striking is far from washed-up and harmless.

    So you admit to not seeing any eyepoke, even with the aid of slow-motion replay, yet dismiss the idea that Sergei was using it as an excuse to quit against a tough opponent?

    I think you're trying to talk yourself into this bet.

    He is a very tiny underdog. He would be worth a stab at more significant plus odds, but not anything lower than +150.
     
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  16. JimGunn

    JimGunn Silver Belt

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    Wiki capping is really only appropriate when someone *only* looks at the fighter's record and just goes by that without watching tape. Many of us have seen a lot of Sergei's fights over the years. I know I have watched all of them since he was in Strikeforce in 2011. So that's not the case here. They actually gave Sergei the win in what sounded like a technical decision in the Vyazgin fight and I suppose it was turned into a No Contest after the fact, so not sure why he would quit in a fight that he was objectively doing okay in and not clearly losing or exhausted yet. I personally think Sergei matches up well with Mitrione at this point in time and the odds should be even at worst so +115 is fine by me for a small to medium sized bet.
     
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  17. SBJJ

    SBJJ Gold Belt

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    Imo Mittrione is going to get KOd
     
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  18. piglord

    piglord Black Belt

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    i agree. i have 1u on sergei and feel he has every advantage except for speed.
     

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