Bellator 215 Mitrione vs Kharitonov

I grabbed Storley, Dantas, and Vandeford at their early or opening lines. Round robin on those along with my straight play on Mitrione. I may end up on Douma actually.
 
Mitrione is 40 and he's a guy that relies on his speed a lot more than sergei he's way more vulnerable to age than a more well schooled striker like Sergei. If you watch a lot of Mittriones kos he just explodes on guys and catches them he never really sets up counters or uses combinations, that shit is not gonna age well.
I think this is why he's so "elusive" because he doesnt have the defense to be in a firefight i mean he was getting lit up by that brit bum for a bit.
Also mitrione is one of the dumbest guys out there, he had that browne fight won and just slowly faded, and that bader fight was embarrasing he completely broke mentally, also shooting vs rothwell etc... i could go on and on. I bet on him vs Roy the second time and he had me sweating once he slowed down his defense was non existant, he was lucky roy is super slow these days.
 
Small semi blind stabs on Pascu +525, Douma +335, Misech +290, people juice up unproven Belly guys like its their job. I understand Storley is semi proven and his wrestling credentials are more than legit, but Pascu can crack, +525 is silly. Leaning for a Sergei bet, but want + odds.
 
Vanderford is also fighting at this event - the guy is married to Paige VanZant.
Kind of weird that there is also a Lindsey VanZandt fighting on the same card
 
I actually think Vandeford is UFC level at the low end.
 
I'm on a Pride never die parlay... Sergei and supplemented Mirko parlayed is my play of the card.
 
On Misech and Douma blind. Pascu semi blind. I don't believe this is at all a bad strategy with Bellator.
 
I'm liking Douma! A wrestler coming off a loss against a cocky guy with two fast KO's, it's the perfect storm.
 
Stunna77 said:
Small semi blind stabs on Pascu +525, Douma +335, Misech +290, people juice up unproven Belly guys like its their job. I understand Storley is semi proven and his wrestling credentials are more than legit, but Pascu can crack, +525 is silly. Leaning for a Sergei bet, but want + odds.
Click to expand...

I was toying with the idea of a Pascu play too, but the problem is how easily Ed Ruth took him down whenever he wanted to, and Pascu lacking the type of one strike power you would need to even give him a puncher's chance. Storley's approaches are also very solid, and he can easily turn a fight into a wrestling mach, like Ben Askren. Pascu can win, of course, but we're talking, but certainly not at any more than the odds he is presently being offered at.

I am slightly kicking myself for not betting on the fight going the distance at -125, waffling on whether it was enough value, and then the odds shooting up to -165.
 
I got the chance to watch some tape on Kimbel and Douma.

Kimbel is lengthy, he a little wild standing but has vicious knockout power with his punches. There is a reason his nickname is Savage. He's very aggressive, quick and athletic. He seems to be finding a rhythm in the fight game and it seems like Bellator has been building him up. I only was able to watch two of his wins on youtube, I could find none of his losses. He went 4-4 as an amateur, losing twice by arm bar, once by KO/TKO in the second round against Harris Bonfiglio. It seems he definitely has some holes in his game, particularly his ground game and maybe with his cardio. A 4-4 record with 3 losses by finish is alarming when it's only been 1 year since he was an amateur. It's been less than 16 months since he was armbarred by a 1-2 amateur fighter (Justin Kristie). With that being said it seems momentum is on his side, as well as the promotion he is fighting for.

With Douma you get a much less athletic fighter with much more fight tape to view. Douma seems to take a well rounded approach to the fight game. He is very hittable, and will be subject to counters from Kimbel. However, he has shown toughness in his fights before. He survived 2x3 minutes of beatdown against 4-2 Amateur Bryan Rossi and was able to get a RNC in round 3. In that fight the majority of damage he took was on bottom position, but he showed heart and toughness to take the beating and seemed relatively unaffected by it. It almost seems that he likes to drag fights out and use a wrestling heavy game plan. He does have a pretty good wrestling game, however, I don't think he has amazing top pressure and can be reversed. Douma has been knocked out before by it was back in 2016 against Yarty Kim (0-0). Based on profile picture alone Kim looks like a tough fight, though it was his only fight. Douma's path to victory is to try and avoid or withstand the strikes from Kimbel in round 1 and grind him out or get the fight to the mat as early as possible.

This fight is going to be interesting for sure. I think we have about a 60% of seeing Kimbel find the knockout early, and a 40% chance of seeing the fight go to the second round where perhaps it favors Douma. With that being said I think the play here is Douma as a big underdog. I think there is some value in fading Kimbel. I could find none of Kimbel's 4 ammy losses on youtube so it's hard to gauge why and how he has lost fights before aside from just seeing the result. That being said, 4 amateur losses, two by sub and one by tko, I think Douma is a live dog here with a chance to either grind it out with takedowns, tire Kimbel, and possibly find a submission.

Another thing I looked at was their camps. If they are both currently training with the camps listed on Tapology, Douma is training with a bunch of Pro fighters with 10+ pro fights, Kimbel's team consists of a bunch of amateur fighters with minimal fights. I don't know if he started at that gym and moved to a bigger gym, or if he is still at that gym, but it is worth noting.

My play is on Douma +355. I would cap his true underdog line as more of a +200 or +250, however there is not enough information available on these fighters to really be confident in this.
 
Last edited:
Rando said:
I got the chance to watch some tape on Kimbel and Douma.

Kimbel is lengthy, he a little wild standing but has vicious knockout power with his punches. There is a reason his nickname is Savage. He's very aggressive, quick and athletic. He seems to be finding a rhythm in the fight game and it seems like Bellator has been building him up. I only was able to watch two of his wins on youtube, I could find none of his losses. He went 4-4 as an amateur, losing twice by arm bar, once by KO/TKO in the second round against Harris Bonfiglio. It seems he definitely has some holes in his game, particularly his ground game and maybe with his cardio. A 4-4 record with 3 losses by finish is alarming when it's only been 1 year since he was an amateur. It's been less than 16 months since he was armbarred by a 1-2 amateur fighter (Justin Kristie). With that being said it seems momentum is on his side, as well as the promotion he is fighting for.

With Douma you get a much less athletic fighter with much more fight tape to view. Douma seems to take a well rounded approach to the fight game. He is very hittable, and will be subject to counters from Kimbel. However, he has shown toughness in his fights before. He survived 2x3 minutes of beatdown against 4-2 Amateur Bryan Rossi and was able to get a RNC in round 3. In that fight the majority of damage he took was on bottom position, but he showed heart and toughness to take the beating and seemed relatively unaffected by it. It almost seems that he likes to drag fights out and use a wrestling heavy game plan. He does have a pretty good wrestling game, however, I don't think he has amazing top pressure and can be reversed. Douma has been knocked out before by it was back in 2016 against Yarty Kim (0-0). Based on profile picture alone Kim looks like a tough fight, though it was his only fight. Douma's path to victory is to try and avoid or withstand the strikes from Kimbel in round 1 and grind him out or get the fight to the mat as early as possible.

This fight is going to be interesting for sure. I think we have about a 60% of seeing Kimbel find the knockout early, and a 40% chance of seeing the fight go to the second round where perhaps it favors Douma. With that being said I think the play here is Douma as a big underdog. I think there is some value in fading Kimbel. I could find none of Kimbel's 4 ammy losses on youtube so it's hard to gauge why and how he has lost fights before aside from just seeing the result. That being said, 4 amateur losses, two by sub and one by tko, I think Douma is a live dog here with a chance to either grind it out with takedowns, tire Kimbel, and possibly find a submission.

Another thing I looked at was their camps. If they are both currently training with the camps listed on Tapology, Douma is training with a bunch of Pro fighters with 10+ pro fights, Kimbel's team consists of a bunch of amateur fighters with minimal fights. I don't know if he started at that gym and moved to a bigger gym, or if he is still at that gym, but it is worth noting.

My play is on Douma +355. I would cap his true underdog line as more of a +200 or +250, however there is not enough information available on these fighters to really be confident in this.
Click to expand...

Added to Douma +375, appreciate the write-up.
 
On Douma +330.

I was initially going to play Mitrione for the main event, but fight goes the distance at +325 looks pretty enticing.

Mitrione may just get jabbed to death by Sergei. His chin is still intact so I don't see Sergei handling him like he did Nelson.

2 old, past their prime fighters, that are clearly both in it just for the paychecks -- I don't see them going to war in there.
 
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