Bellator 149 - shamrock vs gracie... again...

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Feb 8, 2016.

  1. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    17,106
    Location:
    philly
  2. Dusty Trunks

    Dusty Trunks Green Belt

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2009
    Messages:
    1,184
    Likes Received:
    336
    Love Gracie. I wish this wasn't happening.
     
  3. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,465
    Likes Received:
    17,116
    Location:
    NJ
    Will be the worst 15 mins of MMA ever
     
  4. rille31

    rille31 Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,524
    Likes Received:
    1,659
    Location:
    sweden
    More like worst 60 seconds ever
     
  5. Joseph Budden

    Joseph Budden Banned Banned

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2004
    Messages:
    22,465
    Likes Received:
    17,116
    Location:
    NJ
    Honestly will be surprised if either guy gets a finish in the main event, which makes this fight even more dreadful
     
  6. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    17,106
    Location:
    philly
    Man yea, hard to cap. That's for sure.
     
  7. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    26,322
    Likes Received:
    11,539
    I think Ken will finish Royce, I really do. They are both old and have little to offer, yes. But Ken showed up to win vs Kimbo and really should have choked Kimbo out. Ken looks like he's on the Sly Stallone diet, while Royce looks like an aging club pro teaching old lady tennis lessons. And Ken's one glaring (and it's bad, no doubt) weakness is his chin. But Royce can't capitalize on it because he has the punching power of Montgomery Burns. Royce won't be able to get the fight to the mat, even if he tries to pull guard. Ken is going to make him stand and tee off on him.

    I really think it will be a one sided beatdown and I'm hoping the odds aren't too steep on Ken.
     
    MYSTXRIVL likes this.
  8. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    17,106
    Location:
    philly
    Interesting
     
  9. Scythe

    Scythe Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    Messages:
    4,522
    Likes Received:
    175
    I'll only bet this fight if either guy's a large underdog or if there's a tantalizing prop.

    I don't really buy into Ken's physique deciding who wins this because while Ken probably diets and works out like a bodybuilder, he also has the body of a 50 year-old bodybuilder. After Kimbo basically tripped on his own legs and gave up that choke by default, Ken was noticeably fatigued/arthritic when jockeying for position.

    Royce might be a guy with your average man's 50 year-old body but he also hasn't destroyed himself for 20 years since his peak. I kind of think Ken's going to try and impose his will and gas, Royce just needs to survive.
     
    EzFlyer likes this.
  10. Jesus Freak

    Jesus Freak Banned Double Yellow Card

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2014
    Messages:
    5,119
    Likes Received:
    3,303
    Location:
    LA, Homie!
    You mean it's not a 5-Rounder!!!!
     
  11. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    26,322
    Likes Received:
    11,539
    Obviously given my previous post I disagree.

    Ken's gas tanks sucks, I'll just get that out of the way LOL. But as unskilled (and seemingly also in possession of bad knees) as Kimbo is, he's also significantly bigger and physically stronger than Ken. So while Ken did seem to tire pretty quickly jockeying for position, it was against a much bigger and stronger guy. In Royce he's fighting a guy that he's gonna outweight by 30 lbs or so and who will be significantly physically weaker than he is.

    Given Ken's chin, he really had to dive in at Kimbo and try to grapple. He couldn't stand with Kimbo and once KImbo got up and any striking happened it was over. But Royce can't strike AT ALL and has no takedowns. Sure if it became just a grappling match maybe Royce gets the better of it with technique and stamina (maybe) but I don't see how he gets it to the mat unless Ken just goes full idiot mode and wants a grappling match.

    Finally, I'll say that I generally don't try to get too much into a fighter's psyche to cap fights, but with Royce it has to be considered. Ken tried to win vs Kimbo. He got Kimbo down, was really close to choking him out, obviously wanted to win. Even at 50 and having deteriorated to a freak show status, he still seems to have a chip on his shoulder. Royce? I can't help believe that after not having fought for 8 years he's just doing this for a paycheck. Bellator gave him a fight against a fellow old timer for enough $ that he said "Fine, I'll do it." I think there's a very good chance the Gracie pride goes out the window the first time he gets punched and then and there decides "Fuck this, there's a reason I stopped fighting".

    All that said I still wouldn't bet Ken at really high odds. It's a freakshow fight after all. But something like -175? I'll take a stab.
     
  12. Scythe

    Scythe Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    Messages:
    4,522
    Likes Received:
    175
    Is this at a specific weight by the way? Or just openweight (don't know how that's handled now)?
     
  13. PuertoRican

    PuertoRican Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2012
    Messages:
    13,193
    Likes Received:
    2,747


    Royce shows up at the 36:00 mark.
     
    LEMONZEST likes this.
  14. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,212
    Likes Received:
    9,268
    Royce is fighting for a pay cheque - I read not long ago he has been declared bankrupt or something along those lines.
     
  15. LEMONZEST

    LEMONZEST Planning parlays...

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2015
    Messages:
    3,539
    Likes Received:
    2,327
    This is true but even so I think Royce is very proud and takes winning seriously. Also this is definitly a fight Royce can win.

    IMO Royce's style of fighting probably allows him to age better than that of a wrestler. I think wrestlers push their bodies too hard (especially in Ken's era) whereas I think the BJJ world (even back then) is more balanced.

    I don't plan to bet this but if anything might take a small stab at Royce if I can get him at +

    I really don't like this fight and the Kimbo fight for betting as they are such crap shoots.

    Just my 2c.
     
  16. Sham5916910

    Sham5916910 Silver Belt

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2014
    Messages:
    12,212
    Likes Received:
    9,268
    Ken will want it more the loss from UFC 1 still grates him to this day. Delusional or not he loves fighting and would love nothing more than to beat Royce. Royce has a lot less wear and tear tho. I do see Ken boxing his way to a decision win tho.
     
  17. EzFlyer

    EzFlyer Titanium Belt

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2006
    Messages:
    37,934
    Likes Received:
    17,106
    Location:
    philly
    idk, sham, the who wants it more bit -- not resonating here

    imo: f this fight, i don't see any way to be confident enough to lay juice on either guy
     
    Scythe and LEMONZEST like this.
  18. Scythe

    Scythe Brown Belt

    Joined:
    Oct 14, 2004
    Messages:
    4,522
    Likes Received:
    175
    I'm hoping to be able to bet Royce, which I will only do as a moderate underdog (conversation has strengthened my opinion just a bit).

    I don't really see how the 14-2 guy is just in it for a payday as opposed to the guy that's 5-11 in the 2000s.

    If this actually turns into an awful striking match, remember that Royce can always fall to his safety net, and will do so. If Ken ever gets hurt, he turns into a turtle before even touching the ground.
     
  19. mkess101

    mkess101 World Series or bust...

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2007
    Messages:
    26,322
    Likes Received:
    11,539
    He's 14-2 but hasn't fought in 8 years. Eight. Years. And of those 14 wins 11 are over 20 years ago. Twenty. Years.

    He supposedly has recently had financial problems. If his heart was actually still in fighting, it's hard for me to see why he'd take an 8 year hiatus and then decide to come back at his age unless it was mainly financial motivation. Guys who still have a passion for something don't leave for almost a decade.


    I'm not gonna bet Ken as a steep favorite or anything, but what exactly is Royce's path to victory here? Ken's striking is pretty bad, but still light years better than Royce's. Ken will be much bigger. Maybe Royce has the cardio edge? Maybe? He has less wear and tear for sure, I'll grant that. But he still probably doesn't even have the power to hurt Ken (even with Ken's shot chin). He doesn't have the wrestling ability to take Ken down. He basically needs to...hope that Kens is stupid and actually wants a grappling match? It's possible I guess. If Ken isn't a total moron he'll keep it a striking contest and just be wary of Royce trying to pull guard or somehow drag him to the mat. And standing it's pretty one sided imo.
     
    Sham5916910 likes this.
  20. Ballsaque

    Ballsaque Purple Belt

    Joined:
    Nov 11, 2015
    Messages:
    2,074
    Likes Received:
    2,121
    90% of his wins are against people that had 0 idea what BJJ is though. And he was roided for the ones who did.
     

Share This Page

  1. This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
    By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.