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Locked AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR v.4 (April 27 U.S. Release; Six Untitled MCU Films Get Release Dates)

How much will Infinity War earn in the U.S. after its theatrical run?

  • Total voters
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liljoe said:
Avengers 1 adjusts to 705M today.
View attachment 349921
The awareness and fan base has expanded immensely since then. Cap 1 and Thor 1 only made around 180 million. The 4 most recent mcu movies have all made at least 300 million.
Yes, a movie still has to deliver in terms of quality and audience support to overperform. That is why Ultron wasn't so hot after a few days.
If Infinity War gets the same reviews as Avengers 1 or better, all bets are off.
My guess is:
245-250 million opening weekend
660-680 million domestic
1.6-1.8 billion global
Click to expand...
Adjusting for inflation doesn't make sense when ticket prices aren't inflated.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/average-price-a-movie-ticket-soars-897-2017-1075458

admissions_change_chart_embed.jpg
 
Rewatched Civil War today. Such a good marvel movie that redeveloped Caps and Iron Mans characters and really set a new tone for the entire MCU. In terms of impact it has to be top 2, behind Avengers 1.
 
liljoe said:
Hmm. I generally follow Boxoffice Mojo methodology.
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/about/adjuster.htm
2012 ticket price was $7.96. Today it is $9.18. About 13.5% increase.
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They don't separate/adjust for 3D or IMAX upsales which is what that article parsed in its methodology, and this has experienced rapid growth since the final Harry Potter was released.

Nevertheless, one would expect Infinity War to be a movie that generates more sales from these.
 
Madmick said:
59/64 voters have predicated a domestic box office above $700m despite that not a single MCU film (not even the original Avengers which crossed that magical zeitgeist tipping point) has grossed that. Black Panther won't pass that despite all the politics-- it will be lucky to break $600m. In fact, I think it's going to be only the 2nd film in the franchise to crack $500m.

Color me a cynic, I guess, but I don't think the rest of the country cares that much about the linear MCU narrative.
Click to expand...

I think a lot of people maybe misunderstood the poll and didn’t realize it was asking domestic instead of worldwide.
 
bosox32 said:
Rewatched Civil War today. Such a good marvel movie that redeveloped Caps and Iron Mans characters and really set a new tone for the entire MCU. In terms of impact it has to be top 2, behind Avengers 1.
Click to expand...
Avengers 1 never did anything for me.
 
Madmick said:
59/64 voters have predicated a domestic box office above $700m despite that not a single MCU film (not even the original Avengers which crossed that magical zeitgeist tipping point) has grossed that. Black Panther won't pass that despite all the politics-- it will be lucky to break $600m. In fact, I think it's going to be only the 2nd film in the franchise to crack $500m.

Color me a cynic, I guess, but I don't think the rest of the country cares that much about the linear MCU narrative.
Click to expand...

It's going to be more Front Loaded. " Summer " ( its now getting released April 27) has so many options. I think Avengers has a shot at 250 mill Weekend Debut but a 700 mill domestic is a pipe dream . I say 600 mil .
 
TheWorm said:
I think a lot of people maybe misunderstood the poll and didn’t realize it was asking domestic instead of worldwide.
Click to expand...
Perhaps.

Maybe I'm reading Sherdog too much as a subcultural bubble, and underestimating the public anticipation of this film. But when I talk to people outside our demographic nobody seems to know or care what the MCU is. I don't see this ever matching what The Force Awakens did, and that film didn't break $1bn. The juggernaut that was Jurassic World didn't break $700m.

Films just don't cross that barrier.
heavyarms21 said:
It's going to be more Front Loaded. " Summer " ( its now getting released April 27) has so many options. I think Avengers has a shot at 250 mill Weekend Debut but a 700 mill domestic is a pipe dream . I say 600 mil .
Click to expand...
I definitely see it making up to $700m, but not crossing it.

IM3 took some of the luster off the Iron Man franchise. Civil War barely broke $400m.

Black Panther is huge, but that's political, and because it's drawing in a bunch of people who don't care about the rest of the films or the MCU (like Wonder Woman and all those fans who didn't show up for Justice League).

Ragnarok definitely grew the Thor fanbase, but it's a $300m-$350m franchise market.

Ultron didn't match the first Avengers.

Guardians of the Galaxy was never that big, commercially, similar to Thor, as much as that may surprise some.


I don't see this Star Wars sized market. Just don't see it.
 
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Madmick said:
Perhaps.

Maybe I'm reading Sherdog too much as a subcultural bubble, and underestimating the public anticipation of this film. But when I talk to people outside our demographic nobody seems to know or care what the MCU is. I don't see this ever matching what The Force Awakens did, and that film didn't break $1bn. The juggernaut that was Jurassic World didn't break $700m.

Films just don't cross that barrier.
Click to expand...

I agree with you, that’s why I’m saying the simplest explanation is probably that people didn’t appreciate what they were actually voting for.

I didn’t even vote because once I realized it was US domestic I realized I didn’t know what a reasonable number would be. I only pay attention to worldwide box office gross typically. I couldn’t tell you what the US gross was on any movie.
 
TheWorm said:
I agree with you, that’s why I’m saying the simplest explanation is probably that people didn’t appreciate what they were actually voting for.

I didn’t even vote because once I realized it was US domestic I realized I didn’t know what a reasonable number would be. I only pay attention to worldwide box office gross typically. I couldn’t tell you what the US gross was on any movie.
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I comprehend that you agreed. I'm just considering the possibility that I'm out of touch. It happened with Trump, after all.

Never took that seriously.
 
Yeah I misread the poll as global. This won’t come close to TFA in NA.

I just hope this avengers movie is actually good. Most overrated franchise outside of my beloved Star Wars. Avengers 1&2 were awful, but I can’t imagine Disney fucking up thanos. Then again, it’s Disney and they haven’t been consistent.
 
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Any word on trailer 2? Feels like it should drop soon. Movie is only a month and a half out and we've only gotten 1 trailer.
 
Update: March 6, 2018

INFINITY WAR Character Bios Provide New Details on Thanos and Captain America

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I see Marvel acknowledging Steve's side adventures.

<TheWire1>
 
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