Honest to G-d truth, bro. If Arlovski fought like he did against Browne, I could see him annihilating Werdum and, I think he would fight this way. He fights much better when he has either fought them before, or knows them.
Look at AA vs Browne. They are close friends and were training partners.
Look at AA v Silva. First time around, not good for AA. Second time, AA destroyed him.
Look at AA v Sylvia. AA kicked the crap out of him, literally in the last fight.
If AA fought Werdum again, he would dominate him heavily...HOWEVER...AA needs to fight confident like he did against Browne. The minute he gets clocked on the chin, he freaks out. He has to put this aside. Also, AA has one of the, if not the, best TD defence in the whole division so Werdum would have a hard time taking him to the floor, and an even harder time knocking him out.
AA wins by [T]KO in the first round.
No. Arlovski is a good striker and has statistically the best takedown defense in the HW division.
As per usual, the problem with AA will be if Werdum lands something moderately hard on him, he will freeze up.
Exactly this, unfortunately, if he doesn't change his attitude and get some confidence back.