Jiri vs Ank will be a very telling fight on who is top of the mountain at LHW.
Alex is a bad stylistic match up for Jiri, as Ankalaev is a bad stylistic matchup for Alex.
I think Ankalaev may be too defensively sound for Jiri, but I never count Jiri out due to his tenacity.
I don't think it's a thing of style clash. It's not rock, paper and scissors imo. Ankalev would explore that the same way Alex did I'd imagine, because Ankalaev is also a seasoned kickboxer. I think Ankalaev is simply better than Jiri. Ankalaev is a very powerful striker. Most fights he doesn't even use his wrestling, as his striking is so good that he doesn't need to. Like vs Thiago Santos, Rakić, Ion Cutelaba (back then he was on a run)... he just outstriked easily. Vs Rakić ppl called it boring but Ankalaev wasn't even trying that much, he just outpointed Rakić easily through 3 rounds to the point Rakić was the one trying to take Ank down. Ankalaev only used his wrestling vs Jan on round 4 as he felt the fight was close and dropped and ragdolled Jan through rounds 4 and 5... And used it vs Alex Pereira, but unlike Jan, he couldn't take Alex down. He couldn't get any impactful striking as Alex's grappling nullified Ankalaev's strong sambo basis to the point Ankalaev only won by keeping ahead in the control area criteria when trying to takedown (the most TD attempts he ever tried in a fight).
But we need to account that Alex officially fought with a viral infection. It's not to take away Ankalaev's performance, but Alex managing to make it a close 48-47 vs a guy who's undefeated for 7 years and is basically a Islam Makhachev of LHW while fighting with Norovirus and a fractured hand that wasn't fully healed... That's impressive. Estimations is that those kind of infections can drop a fighter output by 20% and even still, Alex was the one pushing the pace and landing the hardest shots on round 5. That partially landed head kick + jab to the body made Ankalaev retreat a lot... Plus the left hook that grazed Ank's liver when Alex dodged Ank's TD feint –> uppercut had Ank on wobbling legs by the end of round 5... Alex followed with who hard punches to the face and Ank needed to clinch him for the last minute to stall until the clock.
The swing round was round 3. Ank won round 3 but it was a close round... It was a very close 48-47. I believe a fresh Alex Pereira like this one who fought Jiri is likely to turn the script around. Not for nothing, Alex was the favourite, slightly, in the first fight, like a 55/45... I think we are gonna see that with a 100% Alex Pereira. But it's not that it's gonna be easy, Ankalaev is someone who's unbeaten for 7 years, is 21-1 ... That's as tough of an elite LHW as he'd get. So much so Alex was favoured to win many hypothetical fights. DDP was on the list that Alex had a sizeable edge, Khamzat was on the list of a heavy underdog, DC said that actually Tom Aspinall was also on the list as an underdog in the real odds, that the odds presented weren't the true mythical lines... And that the only fighter that was basically a 50/50 vs Alex Pereira was always Ankalaev...
... I believe though in the rematch, Alex when fresh and chama!! as Ankalaev said "yes chama!! Show up in Abu Dhabi, Chama, you're the only one who interest me, you're on a different level" means he recognizes Alex as the real challenge. This time tho, with some insights from Izzy, DDP, Khalil of a fresh Alex Pereira... With Merab also saying Alex needed to be in good shape instead of fighting injured, I believe it's gonna be another hard fight, but an evolved fight with both fighters performing better, tho this time I see it as a 48-47 UD Alex Pereira, in an elite clash of the best LHWs with this time, Alex getting it done by a 3:2 ratio in an elite, competitive, but with him a step ahead of his most dangerous challenge in UFC imo. Jiri said the same thing "I am pretty sure Alex fought injured, it's visible how he wasn't using his hands".
