Murder rates in 2020 may be far beyond the highest spike ever according to preliminary numbers

[Scheme]

The preliminary data for murder for agencies that have published that data shows that murders in 2020 (up until November for most of them). You can see in the tweet the exact dates the data was from.

The preliminary murder rate increase is 36.7% at this point. For context, the year with the worst murder rate increase was 12.7% in 1968.

And before people blame the recession, in the 2008 recession murder rates went down until ~2014.

What could be the cause of such an insane spike in murders?

 

[Krixes]

What the hell is wrong with Chicago??? Don't they ever get tired of killing each other.

 

[RockyLockridge]

How do you kill people if you have to stay at home?

 

[MCS]

Most murders are done at home. Corona causes stress, as do results of the rona. Vietnam '68, stress, but even a outside the nation war doesn't compare to a inside the nation stretched out emergency.

 

[Ideanudge]

Seems like this trend will stay in a society that can't help itself being spiteful to its constituents.

 

[Buff]

What the hell is wrong with Chicago??? Don't they ever get tired of killing each other.

Apparently its 60% down from 2017...

I heard that on a YouTube video about drill music... Apparently its this new thing that's like rap, except you need to have murdered at least 36 people before you get to record a song.

 

[kflo]

How do you kill people if you have to stay at home?

Step one: walk upstairs to the first floor.
Step two: find mom
Step three: kill

This is by no means a tutorial meant to act upon.

 

[CouchBlackBelt]

This is Trump's America. Now that we have a President committed to fight to keep kids from going to school in racial jungles hopefully that trend is reversed.

 

[Scheme]

This is Trump's America. Now that we have a President committed to fight to keep kids from going to school in racial jungles hopefully that trend is reversed.

The murder rate went up until 2017, where it decreased until 2020.

 

[Rafael MMA]

What the fuck does this have to do with the UFC

 

[CouchBlackBelt]

The murder rate went up until 2017, where it decreased until 2020.

Im aware, that wasnt who I was taking a dig at.

 

[CouchBlackBelt]

I havent read the entire terms of service, but Im assuming if your thread doesnt mention Conor McGregor, its going to the war room.

 

[Sano]

Agencies as in cities? What's the national average increase? Your 12% comparison was a national one.

Either way, pretty stark increase. Maybe not that surprising considering what's been going on politically, economically and socially.

EDIT: Numbers in the OP is not used correctly.

 

[justalurker]

Defund the police! BLM!

 

[Sano]

There were 16.425 murders in 2019 (1). If the national increase ends up being 15% (which was the estimate being thrown out in the twitter thread), that's 18.889 murders. So an increase of 2.464 total in 2020.

He mentions that the previous largest total increase was 1.938 in 1990. There were 248.709.873 people in the US in 1990 (2). So that increase would consist of an increase in rate of 0,78 per 100.000.

2020 would be an increase in rate of 0,75 per 100.00.



Either way, pretty insane that it's on par considering how bad 1990 was. Again, it's specualtion, we don't know the national numbers yet. Might even surpass it.

PS: Obviously the total murder per 100.000 is still way lower now than it was in 1990. About half the rate, even if assuming an increase of 20%. Still, it's the yearly increase that's remarkable:

 

[Seano]

Gosh, its almost as if lessening accountability for people's actions and our politicians and media telling us to hate each other has had some sort of negative effect on society. No one could have foreseen this.

 

[Yehudim]

Most murders are done at home. Corona causes stress, as do results of the rona. Vietnam '68, stress, but even a outside the nation war doesn't compare to a inside the nation stretched out emergency.

The climbing murder rate of the 60s had nothing to do with Vietnam, but rather a culmination of things that created an environment conducive to crime, such as changes on sentencing, supreme courts decisions which favored the offender, and a general idea that criminals are victims who need sympathy and rehabilitation.

The fact of the matter is that we had tons of riots in ‘68 and it started a trend in which policing was done with a lighter touch and which criminals often got light sentencing and things like indeterminate sentencing which were disasterous.

 

[Yehudim]

Oh and many police agencies have been defunded to some extent, although to pin this on BLM is misleading, as many local governments cut back thanks to the ‘rona.

 

[SanchoMF]

As usual, liberals are to blame for this but not definitely not expected to clean up the mess they've let happen.
More empty slogans, more nonsense.

 

[Sakurabaism]

This is why open carry is a must. Too bad city folk are too ignorant and easily shook when it comes to firearms.